[imgv94]

It takes about 7 cents off a -110 line
and
will give -116 lines on moving lines to -2.5

For example the other day I bet a parlay
SEMO PK -110 to
Pats ML -2800
and instead of -110 it's -103
took 7 cents off the juice.

Anyone doing this?

[SBR Lou]

playing the over that's all

[tacomax]

Taking the Pats ML on it's own or with a parlay with anything else is a good idea is you think that -2800 is a good price. If you're taking it purely to shave cents from juice on the basis that "there's surely no chance of them losing" then over the long term it is most probably a losing proposition.

[imgv94]

Only way the Pats could lose if Brady got injured early in the game. I guess there is a small % that could happen.

[Ganchrow]

It takes about 7 cents off a -110 line
and
will give -116 lines on moving lines to -2.5

For example the other day I bet a parlay
SEMO PK -110 to
Pats ML -2800
and instead of -110 it's -103
took 7 cents off the juice.

Anyone doing this?

Taking the inside market ex-Matchbook on the Pats ML as indicative (+1900/-2500), the Pats ML at -2800 implies 1.548% juice).

Similarly, the -110 bet implies 4.545% juice.

By parlaying the two, you'd be paid off at -102.3 on a proposition that wins with roughly 95.06% × 50% ≈ 47.53% likelihood (although admittedly one might reasonably argue that the Pats ML is biased to favor bets on the favorite and so the true likelihood would actually be a little bit higher).

Odds of -102.3 with a win prob of 47.53% correspond to vig of 6.023%, meaning that by parlaying the two you're actually paying 1.478% more juice than if you simply laid the entire risk quantity bet on the -110 single. That's an increase of 32.51%.

[gummo]

It's the NFL. It's just as crooked as any other sport. Would you have done the same with USC vs. Stanford?

[Ganchrow]

If, OTOH if the -2900 Pats ML corresponded to a zero-juice bet (which might not be all that far from the truth), then by parlaying the two you wouldn't be impacting the EV on the -110 bet at all, but rather would only serve to lengthen your payout odds.

Holding expectation and bet size constant while lengthening payout odds (i.e. going from more negative to less negative or to positive) has the long-term result of decreasing bankroll growth (for a player employing a percentage of bankroll staking strategy), and increasing bankroll volatility (for a player employing a fixed-quantity staking strategy).

So the point is that even if you could take the favorite bet at zero juice, parlaying it with an uncorrelated +EV bet would generally be less advantageous than simply taking the +EV bet straight.

If however, you felt that at -2800 the Pats were undervalued, then (after taking the -2100 offer on Matchbook) in addition to betting each single, you'd want to parlay a small amount with the -110 bet (perhaps, if it suited your preferences, in keeping with the appropriate amount recommended by my Kelly Calculator).

[raiders72002]

Ganch- Quit picking on imgv. He makes a good point. I hope that JJGold sees this to keep you in check. Happy Thanksgiving.

[HAPPY BOY]

JJ needs to make another fvcking video . Im jonesing man COME ON JJ MAKE A FVCKING VIDEO ALREADY U BALD MOTHERFVCKER!!!

[imgv94]

Ganch,

I don't know what to say, I still think it's worth doing.

[Doug]

Ganch,

I don't know what to say, I still think it's worth doing.

C'mon,Gyno... I want a nice mathy rebuttal !

[pico]

yes it is

I made a good size wager taking juice off of USC -3 AND IND -7 in the 2nd half earlier

pats arent going to lose....its like....making a deposit in the bank IMO...just got to wait til sunday night to cash it

as a person who has bet everything. if there is an odd, then there is a chance of losing. if you a 8 team parlay of -1000 plus odds ever sat for 11 weeks, you'll realize you'll lose 4-5 of those weeks.

-2900 in true odds means there is 1/29 chance that the pats will lose. that is with juice, i think the real probability of pats losing is about 1/15....that is if the pats plays eagles 15 million times, they'll lose about 1 million games. so yeah, you could pick a -3000 line to reduce your juice, but if you parlay that with all your picks, then one black swan will put you in a huge hole. if that is the route you're thinking about doing, then i suggest take 5-6 different games with -2000 plus odds and spread it around...the chance of all -2000 plus ml bet losing is pretty much nil.

[imgv94]

ML is now -5000 on the Pats now.

I know the math doesn't agree with this, but rarely is there a team in the NFL like the Pats.

I'm willing to take my chances and save 7% to 9% of juice.

[Doug]

so you are putting it with every bet ?

[imgv94]

so you are putting it with every bet ?

I've done it with three bets.