Are Futures ever worth it in the long run?

biggamer3 · 11-20-07 08:48 AM

It seems every year that i have so many futures only to be disappointed in the end

For instance last year i bought some GS Warriors futures at like 100-1 to win title and after Dallas series it went up to like 10-1

But in the end all of them always seem to get shot down

Anyone here actually up with futures?

raiders72002 · 11-20-07 11:20 AM

I've done pretty good with futures. Sometimes I'll hedge near the end if it's looking good.

biggamer3 · 11-20-07 01:32 PM

Like this year, the pats are more than -200 in most books at least to win it all

Is it even worth it to put on the Colts at 10-1 or the Steelers at 15-1?

Cowboys at 10-1 seems like a good bet now though

jrcaces · 11-20-07 01:38 PM

Originally Posted by biggamer3

Like this year, the pats are more than -200 in most books at least to win it all

Is it even worth it to put on the Colts at 10-1 or the Steelers at 15-1?

Cowboys at 10-1 seems like a good bet now though

Don't waste your time Pats take it all this year by A long shot.

VegasDave · 11-20-07 03:13 PM

biggamer, I always figure you can't judge futures by the result, but by the value you got on them.

Example; if someone offered you odds on a fair coinflip at +150, you would have to jump all over that bet. If it loses, you can't be too bummed. You know you made a smart bet.

Last year preseason I took the Phoenix Suns 6 to 1, the Ottawa Senators 6.5 to 1, the Buffalo Sabres 14 to 1, and the Minnesota Wild 50 to 1. Granted none of them won, but I don't regret making any of those bets.

VegasDave · 11-20-07 03:16 PM

This year I'm all over Minnesota Twins future. Santana + Liriano = Unbeatable.

11-20-07 03:43 PM

kingsfan, my thoughts exactly on value vs. results.
i have had good results on futures bets - won on jimmie johnson the past 2 years, had miami heat champs, st louis cards champs, and colts champs lately.

if you stick to 2 decent choices each year at 5-1 or 6-1 you should be able to win 1/3 of the seasons to be at least breakeven.
college hoops/football is where the equation usually doesn't make sense - far too much luck involved where one play decides a champ every time.
nba and nfl one of the big favorites wins almost every year and if you shop around you can usually get decent prices.

2008 baseball you can find yankees/red sox at 5-1+ each.
2008 nba you can get boston/phoenix (my 2 favorites) at 4-1 or so if you look.

i also like marquette to win the big east at 6-1!!

11-20-07 09:24 PM

there was a betonsports book a few years ago that put up some early college lines for games throughout the season before the season ever started. i used to cap those games and do real well on them every year . i havnt seen anyone else have those . i have made some money on the total season wins for pro teams which i guess you can call a future. futures can be fun when you play long shots, or the field. i have a field play for college bcs winner at 20 -1 and both kansas and ohio st are field teams so it has been fun to pay attention to all the teams at the top. i think these plays are mainly for the season long entertainment you can get out of them

biggamer3 · 11-21-07 01:11 AM

Originally Posted by usckingsfan31

This year I'm all over Minnesota Twins future. Santana + Liriano = Unbeatable.

You forgot the part about No OFFENSE besides the big 2 hitters

louis · 11-21-07 02:28 AM

Most futures are sucker bets and a big rip off, but occasionally a few of them may offer good odds. Betting last years superbowl champ to repeat the following year, is almost always a bad bet. Right now if you bet a team like Pittsburgh, you are betting that the Pats are going to have a whole bunch of injuries. You would have to calculate the probability of these injuries. Of course, you are also betting that Pittsburgh is healthy, and they can beat the Colts, and then beat the NFC champ. At some point betting a team like Pittsburgh becomes advantageous, but is it +500, +1000, +2000? I don't know, but there is a point where it is a good bet. I also think betting Pats -200, is not a good bet. I have actually seen much better odds on the Pats to win the superbowl at other books.

etothep · 11-21-07 02:34 AM

you're really disappointed you haven't hit on more 100-1 bets? maybe you should make another 99 of them & you'll be more likely to hit one

bigboydan · 11-21-07 02:53 AM

Originally Posted by louis

Most futures are sucker bets and a big rip off, but occasionally a few of them may offer good odds. Betting last years superbowl champ to repeat the following year, is almost always a bad bet. Right now if you bet a team like Pittsburgh, you are betting that the Pats are going to have a whole bunch of injuries. You would have to calculate the probability of these injuries. Of course, you are also betting that Pittsburgh is healthy, and they can beat the Colts, and then beat the NFC champ. At some point betting a team like Pittsburgh becomes advantageous, but is it +500, +1000, +2000? I don't know, but there is a point where it is a good bet. I also think betting Pats -200, is not a good bet. I have actually seen much better odds on the Pats to win the superbowl at other books.

You pretty much nailed it in regards to the injury factor Louis. Their really is no way to cap and or factor in certain players getting hurt. For example if Tom Brady went down with a season ending knee injury, you might as well kiss your future goodbye.

slacker00 · 11-21-07 04:06 PM

Originally Posted by usckingsfan31

biggamer, I always figure you can't judge futures by the result, but by the value you got on them.

Example; if someone offered you odds on a fair coinflip at +150, you would have to jump all over that bet. If it loses, you can't be too bummed. You know you made a smart bet.

Last year preseason I took the Phoenix Suns 6 to 1, the Ottawa Senators 6.5 to 1, the Buffalo Sabres 14 to 1, and the Minnesota Wild 50 to 1. Granted none of them won, but I don't regret making any of those bets.

I'll offer the coinflip at +150. Just let me hold the money for a few years.

That's the hell with props, you might be waiting 6-12 months to get paid. Maybe more if you're doing political election props. You gotta figure in your time value for your money as well.

11-21-07 04:54 PM

I made these wagers at an exchange which accepts Americans but isn't Matchbook, on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl (before this past weekends games):

OrderID Time Buy Sell Price Posn Avg
Super Bowl XLII Winner > NFL.BRONCOS
November 13, 2007
344xxxxxx 10:21 AM 25 0.3 25 0.300
344xxxxxx 10:23 AM 75 0.3 100 0.300
November 14, 2007
345xxxxxx 12:05 PM 400 0.2 500 0.220
500 0 500 0.220

I bought 100 contracts at 3 cents each (which expire at $10.00 each if the Broncos pull it off), and 400 contracts at 2 cents each, so I have risked $11 to win $5,000 (will be $4,800 after commission), so I'm getting about 435-1 odds. Other shops were offering around 125-1 on Denver to win the SB(before this past weekends games), so I like my odds beter.

These contacts were being traded today at 6 cents each, meaning my $11 will bring in a cool $30 if I sell all 500 contracts right now.

I think the Broncos have a very realistic shot at winning their division, having home field for the first playoff game, and winning that one as well, before playing the Patriots.

VegasDave · 11-21-07 05:13 PM

Originally Posted by slacker00

I'll offer the coinflip at +150. Just let me hold the money for a few years.

That's the hell with props, you might be waiting 6-12 months to get paid. Maybe more if you're doing political election props. You gotta figure in your time value for your money as well.

Yeah, it definitely sucks.

Still, you wouldn't bet 100 to win 150 on heads or tails if the coinflip was 9 months away? I still would.

Originally Posted by biggamer3

You forgot the part about No OFFENSE besides the big 2 hitters

True... but also consider they have young arms in Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser... if any of them take their game to the next level, it'll be hard to take a series from this team. Not to mention the 1 - 2 punch of Neshek to Nathan is among the best in the league. Rincon had a bad year but is also solid. Can't say enough about good pitching... I think they can grind out a lot of low scoring wins if the cards fall right.

Tough in baseball since it is so hard to make the playoffs (where anything can happen) but at 30 or 40 to 1 I'll put a little on it.

If they do make the playoffs, think back to 2001...

Game 1: Schilling (Santana)
Game 2: Johnson (Liriano)
Game 3: Anderson (Baker)
Game 4: Schilling (Santana)
Game 5: Bautista (Slowey/Garza/Whoever)
Game 6: Johnson (Liriano)
Game 7: Schilling (Santana)

Can't beat that!!

biggamer3 · 11-21-07 05:48 PM

Originally Posted by usckingsfan31

Yeah, it definitely sucks.

Still, you wouldn't bet 100 to win 150 on heads or tails if the coinflip was 9 months away? I still would.

True... but also consider they have young arms in Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser... if any of them take their game to the next level, it'll be hard to take a series from this team. Not to mention the 1 - 2 punch of Neshek to Nathan is among the best in the league. Rincon had a bad year but is also solid. Can't say enough about good pitching... I think they can grind out a lot of low scoring wins if the cards fall right.

Tough in baseball since it is so hard to make the playoffs (where anything can happen) but at 30 or 40 to 1 I'll put a little on it.

If they do make the playoffs, think back to 2001...

Game 1: Schilling (Santana)
Game 2: Johnson (Liriano)
Game 3: Anderson (Baker)
Game 4: Schilling (Santana)
Game 5: Bautista (Slowey/Garza/Whoever)
Game 6: Johnson (Liriano)
Game 7: Schilling (Santana)

Can't beat that!!

If twins make the playoffs after losing Hunter i would be shocked!

Neshek really is the best setup man in the bigs by far IMO

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