[louis]

Does anyone know who is offering them? Just read an article here by Brian Gabrielle of bgsports.com the early line was +16.5 AFC. This seems like a good deal to me, not knowing what the injuries are going to be and comparing two teams that may not have common opponents, to have this type of line now seems like an automatic bet, for those willing to tie their money up.

[SBR Lou]

He must have meant NFC +16.5.

[Jamie_UK]

The current AFC/NFC superbowl line on BF is -358/+340 . How would you ever think you could get a +16.5 point spread on AFC? What odds would you expect? I have never even watched an egg chasing football game and I can see its bollox.

[HedgeHog]

There's value in taking the NFC +16.5, especially if NE gets upset in the AFC Playoffs. Worst case, what would the line be on NE vs say Dal or GB on a neutral field?

[louis]

Sorry that was a mistake in my post.

If you find AFC +16.5 the sportsbook is going to cancel the bet!

Right now they have Pats -16 against teams like Bills and Washington. Of course the line would be lower against the best the NFC has to offer, so anyone betting this could buy back as much as they want and get a nice middle, if their bankroll doesn't support what they did.

They have some props at Itops, but I couldn't find anyone offering the prop with the actual spread on the game.

It would be a very interesting bet, not even as large as NFC +16.5, if anyone knows where to find it. Of course, at an outfit like sportsbook.com this would be of little interest. Watch out for books like sportsbook.com that put out attractive superbowl props on purpose, with little intention of paying out.

[jjgold]

NFC is a great bet, they are very strong and deep.

[louis]

Hedgehog, it is very difficult to come up with a line now if not impossible. The superbowl line that comes out is almost always based on how teams do in the playoffs, not how they have done up to this point in the season. Teams are dynamic in their strength, not static. Some teams get better and turn it on in the playoffs. Other teams, get injuries and get worse. How teams do in the playoffs has a lot to do with strategy and play calling, and just plain luck.

But if you want to ask me what the line would be today if the Pats were playing Dallas or Green Bay on a neutral field, I would say between Pats -9 and Pats -11. Although the line could grow to -16.5 on Superbowl day, it could also shrink to -3; If you can get -16.5 today, then i would certainly take the dog; the odds are very much in your favor.

There is also a reasonable chance the Cowboys or Greenbay might not make it. Less likely, New England may not make it either.

[HedgeHog]

AFC -16.5 is not an error line. ABCIslands had them at -15.5 prior to this weekend, and it'll be interesting to see where the line comes out this week (probably about the same). Again, there's value in the NFC plus more than 2 TDs!

[biggamer3]

Cowboys will keep it closer than 16 for sure
Gmen or Packers and its a good line

[SBR Lou]

But if you want to ask me what the line would be today if the Pats were playing Dallas or Green Bay on a neutral field, I would say between Pats -9 and Pats -11.

I sure hope so. I'd bet every dollar to my name, plus whatever else I can get my hands on for -9 vs Pack.

[HedgeHog]

I sure hope so. I'd bet every dollar to my name, plus whatever else I can get my hands on for -9 vs Pack.

NE -11 vs GB (the -9 was vs Dal). Probably doesn't change your opinion.

[bigboydan]

Does anyone know who is offering them?

Carib currently is offering a Superbowl line Louis. In fact here is the consensus numbers on this event currently they have:

NFC vs AFC (2008 Superbowl)

AFC 26.09%
NFC 73.91%
828 Bets

[louis]

Hedgehog, you bet there is value in the NFC + more than 2 touchdowns.

The question can you tie up the funds, and can the book be trusted. This is the kind of bet you want to put a lot of money on, and then buy back much of the bet with a middle. So you don't want to play with books rated less than B+. Also, +14.5 is worth a lot more than +14, but +15 to +15.5 is not worth that much more.

The time to buy this is now. I don't think the patriots can continue their trend of beating opponents by 17+ points every game. once they stop doing it, the superbowl line is going to drop.

[imgv94]

I'd love NFC +17 more

[HedgeHog]

Hedgehog, you bet there is value in the NFC + more than 2 touchdowns.

The question can you tie up the funds, and can the book be trusted. This is the kind of bet you want to put a lot of money on, and then buy back much of the bet with a middle. So you don't want to play with books rated less than B+. Also, +14.5 is worth a lot more than +14, but +15 to +15.5 is not worth that much more.

The time to buy this is now. I don't think the patriots can continue their trend of beating opponents by 17+ points every game. once they stop doing it, the superbowl line is going to drop.

The other problem is that the Early Super Bowl Line is often treated as a prop, thus just a nickle or dime limit. If ABC (solid B Book, somewhat underrated IMO) comes back out with a line of 14.5 or higher again this week, I'll max out the NFC. I don't mind tying up the funds for a few months, especially since I'll be betting the big game anyway. I just don't think NE is a lock to make it to the SB; the AFC top teams (i.e Pitt or Indy) are quite capable of the upset.

[swifty]

I'd love NFC +24 more they need that much. a blow out brady 5 TD in the first half alone

[swifty]

NE -11 vs GB (the -9 was vs Dal). Probably doesn't change your opinion.

I will go Green bay way - 3 they are hot too. don't count them out..

[MJFtheGenius]

Yup, just like they did in Dallas vs NE.

Oh...wait...nevermind.

It aint easy to beat a good team 2 times in one year

[MJFtheGenius]

and my Cowboys will win outright!!!!!!!!!