Can anybody tell me?
| Poster's Sportsbook Poll: 2011View Poll Results | ||
| # 1 5Dimes | 450 total points | 5Dimes Review |
| # 2 Pinnacle | 408 total points | Pinnacle Review |
| # 3 Heritage | 227 total points | Heritage Review |
| # 4 Bookmaker | 138 total points | Bookmaker Review |
| # 5 BetIslands | 129 total points | BetIslands Review |
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01-04-06 10:49 AM #1
How do books calculate totals?
SBR Founder Join Date: 9/22/2005
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01-04-06 12:16 PM #2
i wish i knew how. the closest numbers i can find to their calculated totals are pretty close but they usually lose. I did try using this website for basketball totals and it was helpful but i doubt it's what your looking for
http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/kalman.htmlSBR Founder Join Date: 8/21/2005
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01-04-06 12:20 PM #3
Is that the same site that you use? You dont have to give away anything if its a secret...
SBR Founder Join Date: 9/22/2005
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01-04-06 03:38 PM #4
I know a lot of figuring out totals is figuring out teams scoring averages at home and away...weather also plays a role in football...as well as the teams past history vs. eachother (if it's a conference game)...possibly even the last time they played a game (the more rest for the teams, the more likely the total will be higher)...
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/18/2005
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01-04-06 06:07 PM #5
oh no, ive tried calculating totals this way but i ran into some problems. If i used the stats from the entire season using the kalman filter i could get some numbers that were not reliable. Some games my totals would be exactly the same as the books but other times it would be ten or twelve whole points off. i was thinking that if i used stats from the last 7 games or so the results might be better, but that would be a pain to constantly find the offensive and defensive ratings night after night anyways
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/21/2005
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01-05-06 01:06 AM #6
in my opinion clover, the linemakers use some stats, some O/D ratings and even some formulas, but in the end all this is just providing some guidance...the resulting total is adjusted according to most recent form, injuries etc. info and somewhat reflects their lean for the game, the human factor can't be avoided when the opening line is released
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/10/2005
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