Anyone know any good card counting books for a novice?
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10-31-07 05:26 PM #1
blackjack card counting
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10-31-07 06:05 PM #2
JR if you really get good at it, you'll find it is as boring a lot as they come by and is work like anything else. Intently staring at green felt for hours on end for a slight edge ain't as fun as people will have you to believe. It'll definitely teach you discipline and money management, however, and is a great springboard to a lot of other things.
Originally Posted by jrcaces
As for your question, check out anything by Stanford Wong. He has some tremendous books that lay out the basics and ins/outs of the trade. GL and let us know how it goes....
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10-31-07 06:08 PM #3
"Take the money and run" is a good newbie book.
There's a site - Crazyhermit.com that has an excellent program to teach you.
Whatever you do, master basic strategy before learning anything else. If you don't, you're just kidding yourself.
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10-31-07 06:20 PM #4
Knock-Out Blackjack by Olaf and Fuchs is excellent. It is an unbalanced count, eliminating the need for a true-count conversion (a common source of error and frustration for newcomers). Other than that it is about identical in power to the High-Low count. The book is well written and very easy to follow.
For the record, I agree with BigBollocks that blackjack is a god awful way to make money, especially these days. But some others disagree and who am I to judge.
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10-31-07 07:10 PM #5
Wongs books are best by far. Any book that makes it sound easy is no good. It is extremely difficult to make money counting cards these days. It use to be the casino personnel were not very educated to this, and many did not believe it could be done because they saw everyone lose. Nowadays, surveillance is on top of it. Most counters never do things right anyway and end up losing. Those who win, surveillance makes a few calls and the player is asked to play another game besides blackjack.
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10-31-07 07:23 PM #6
Forget about it. It takes years to be proficient and there aren't any playable games anymore. Originally Posted by jrcaces
Just play wild ass hunches and hope you win and have fun. Blackjack is streaky. Use a positive progression when you are winning and reduce bet size if you are losing. When you hit a good streak you'll make a killing. When you hit a bad streak you will be down but set a loss limit and then quit.
I played blackjack at the professional level for years. It isn't worth it anymore.
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10-31-07 10:50 PM #7
Curious, Originally Posted by curious
I'll disagree here. A new player that is motivated can learn basic strategy in 2-3 hours, the basics of counting in 1 hour, and become proficient in about 02 hours.
Flights to Vegas are cheap from everywhere. If you get in 200 quality hours, it's not hard to bank 60k a year.
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10-31-07 11:22 PM #8
You have to learn the shoe game, be able to count 6-8 decks without losing count, I learned on single deck, which was more forgiving to a newbie counter losing count because of frequent shuffles. Single deck sucks with 6-5 now.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
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11-01-07 12:11 AM #9
Just remember if your playing Online Blackjack, that the cards are shuffled after every hand, so counting online is worthless
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11-01-07 12:24 AM #10 Justin, there is so much more you have to learn
Justin, there is so much more you have to learn.
You have to learn about bankroll requirements, and kelly betting. You have to learn index numbers for basic strategy deviation. Basic strategy depends on the rules and number of decks, by the way. You have to learn about game selection, and how to detect counter measures like preferential shuffling. You have to learn concepts such as desirability index, risk of ruin, and hourly rates, and then how to formulate a strategy to not get detected.
I disagree that in a few hours someone can learn how to be a successful card counter. These players that quickly read through books are always going to make mistakes, and the card counter's edge is so small, something like 1%, that unless play is perfect, the house will retain the advantage. On the other hand, some counters give up 1/2 percent of the 1% edge in order to camaflouge their play. These are usually big money counters betting shoe games in Vegas, betting $500 per hand or more and part of large teams that share the risk. There is noway someone is getting accepted onto one of these teams with a few hours experience.
Those who don't join teams, go into casino solo, and play like robots doing exactly as the book says will get their 1% for a little while and then be politely asked to play something else.
Or maybe the casino will start preferential shuffling and since the counter never read about this in his book, will be unaware of what is happening and have his money gone before he knows it.
Successful card counters read and study not one book, but many books. The best books are those whose audience is professional players, not books aimed at the public that are found at Barnes and Noble. The more complex and the more tables in the book, the better.
There is an entire website dedicated to card counting: bj21.com, and as you read all the posts over there one will see there is a lot to learn.
Right now poker and sportsbetting are much more lucrative to the advantage player than blackjack. The popularity of blackjack is way down, because the casinos decided to stop advantage play at this game. The word is out the game can't be beat any more so even some of those who could not beat it are no longer interested in playing.Last edited by louis; 11-01-07 at 12:36 AM.
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11-01-07 04:48 AM #11
Louis is right on target with his post. bj21 is the place to start Originally Posted by louis
I would add that imho vegas is not the place to play. In fact playing there can get you in trouble at other counter friendly joints. One could say one of the most important things about being a successfull bj player is to find the casinos that have nice conditions. That includes many factors other than the game rules. You would have to find the nice places yourself as that would not be info to share with others.
p.s. all online casinos don't shuffle after every hand. I very tiny advantage is given to the house the farther down the deck(s) the house waits to shuffle. (assuming no counting)
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11-01-07 07:45 AM #12
I don't know about a small stakes player getting barred. I have played blackjack for over ten years and have never been barred. I've never been backed off or harrassed in any way. Originally Posted by louis
There is more to being an advantage blackjack player than card counting. You have to know how to shuffle track, ace steer, hole card spooking, you have to know Slanksky's key card concept. I don't even count cards any more. I developed a system that approaches perfect play based on Slanksky's key card concept. For example, what is the single most important piece of information if you have 16 vs the dealer 10 in single deck with decent penetration? If you say "the count" you are wrong. The single most important piece of information is the density of the 5 in the remaning cards to be dealt. If the remaining cards are 5 rich you hit, if they are 5 poor you stand, unless of course the game offers surrender.
Same with 12 vs dealer 7 (I HATE this hand). The most important thing to know is the density of the 9 in the remaining cards. 9 rich you hit, 9 poor you stand.
Much more effective than counting is to know the composition of the remaining cards and then use logarithms to calculate your exact odds for any given situation. Of course, it might take you a few years to develop the calculus equations and memorize them. LOL
If I have 14 and the dealer has 10 or A what I want to know is "what is the density of the 7 and 6 in the remaining cards" AND "what is the ratio of 8,9,10 in the remaining cards to 3,4,5,6,and 7?". If I know this I can tell you with mathematical certitude the probabilities of winning this hand. On the other hand, if I know "the count" all I know is that the remaning cards are rich/poor tens or low cards. I don't know anything about the 7, 8, or 9 and I don't know the density of the 7 and 6. THE most important piece of information given 14 vs dealer 10 or A is the density of the 7 and 6. If the deck is rich in 6, if I get a 6 I have 20, if the dealer gets a 6 the dealer now has a 16 she has to hit. The 7 is even better, if I get a 7 I have 21, if the dealer gets a 7, she has to stand on 17. The 8 and 9 count as 10 in this situation. If I get 8 or 9 I break, the dealer gets and 18 or 19. I'm screwed either way. A brain dead +- counting system won't give you this information.
For bet sizing it is more important to know the ratio of 9,10, and A vs 4,5,6. I also want to know if the deck is rich or poor in 2 and 7. The dealer's most powerful card is the 7 (after the A of course).
Now, even using a highly effective system like this, it pales in comparison to Ace steering. If I KNOW that my first card will be an A and I know the remaining deck is rich in 10, i have a 66% advantage. LOL Even if I know that my first card will be a 10 and the deck is rich in 10 and A, I have a 30% advantage.
Hole card spooking has a similar edge. I would much rather know what the dealer's hole card is than know the count using some brain dead +- counting system.
You put me head to head with a dealer on a hand held single deck game with good penetration and I will massacre her. Of course, there is no such game any more which is why I don't play much any more.Last edited by curious; 11-01-07 at 07:48 AM.
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11-01-07 07:46 AM #13
Waste of time, you will get carried out
Casinos always ahead of the playerSBR Founder Join Date: 7/20/2005
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11-01-07 08:57 AM #14
I knew someone who made a living doing this but then starting getting banned from Casinos. You can last a while if you don't get greedy.
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11-01-07 09:48 AM #15
Curious: How do you keep track of the density ? I thought the +/- system was used because tracking each individual card value is too hard, unless you are extremely gifted.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
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11-01-07 10:32 AM #16
Unless I've misunderstood you (which is certainly a possibility), this is not true. Assuming S17, 3 splits max, double after split OK, then all else being equal out of a new shoe it's always correct to hit (or split) 12 vs. dealer 7 irrespective of the number of 9s renoved from the deck. Originally Posted by curious
I'd done the analysis for both single-deck and 6-deck. Here are the EVs under each scenario:
1D S17 With 9s | No 9s Player Hand Hit Stand Split | Hit Stand Split
T2 -21.20% -47.28% - | -29.54% -54.68% -
93 -24.71% -49.16% - | -31.08% -54.61% -
84 -24.55% -48.36% - | -33.23% -55.50% -
75 -25.82% -49.31% - | -34.55% -56.57% -
66 -26.49% -49.34% -19.26% | -35.03% -55.81% -11.00%
6D S17 With 9s | No 9s Player Hand Hit Stand Split | Hit Stand Split
T2 -21.26% -47.49% - | -29.30% -54.76% -
93 -21.82% -47.80% - | -29.54% -54.74% -
84 -21.79% -47.68% - | -29.87% -54.91% -
75 -21.96% -47.77% - | -30.04% -55.01% -
66 -22.06% -47.77% -25.28% | -30.10% -54.90% -19.07%
As you can see, sticking on hard 12 versus dealer 7 is never correct based solely on 9 density.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-01-07 11:05 AM #17
4 deck, S17, Dealer peeks. Originally Posted by curious
You have T4.
Dealer shows an A and does not have blackjack.
There are 118 cards remaining, including 2 6s and 13 7s.
The density of 6s in the remaining cards is 1.69%.
The density of 7s in the remaining cards is 11.02%.
The ratio of 8s, 9s, and 10s in the remaining cards to 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, and 7s is 72.22%.
What, "with mathematical certitude", is the "probability of winning this hand".
In fact, you have insufficient information to answer this question.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-01-07 11:10 AM #18
Another note... I don't know of anyone that keeps any specific card counts, except for an ace side count. If you're a die-hard, you use AO2 with an ace sidecount. With this though, your EV is only about 10% more than using a straight hi-lo.
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11-01-07 06:26 PM #19
What people do is add + numbers for low cards and - numbers for high cards. Keeping track of individual cards is not the way this is done. Justijn is right that you may be able to add 10% to your EV for counts that do not include the Ace for playing purposes and then you count it for betting purposes, but you are almost always going to make enough mistakes with your side count to do away with any extra EV, with the possible exception of certain professional single deck specialists. Unfortunatley, in today's day and age the single deck specialist is a dead profession. There are too many mistakes to be made with side counts, and almost everyone is better off forgetting about them. Even big money pros on teams, they are not doing side counts, they are using straight +/- counts. The only side count that ever made sense wsa the ace side count for those playing single deck and not using the ace for playing purposes. If you find a single deck game that is dealt to the bottom, no doubt you can add to your EV tremendously by keeping side counts of all the different cards, but since you can whip the game anyway with just a simple +/- why risk all the mistakes you could make?
Last edited by louis; 11-01-07 at 06:35 PM.
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11-01-07 07:11 PM #20
In single deck? Even as kids playing gin rummy I always knew what cards had been played. Originally Posted by Doug
Go play with some die hard bridge, gin rummy, etc players. I guarantee you they know exactly what cards have been played and what cards are left to play at all times.
A bridge players I met at a bridge player's convention laughed at me when she found out I didn't know the remaining composition of a single deck at all times.
Trying to do a +- and memorize indexes gets in the way of just knowing what cards have been played.
Now, we have it easier than a bridge player. We dont care about suit, and 10-J-Q-K count as the same denomination. So, if a bridge player can do it, why can't a blackjack player.
Of course this only works with single deck with decent penetration. You also have to spread to 2 or 3 hands on the final deal to ensure deep penetration.
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11-01-07 07:14 PM #21
Not if you vary bet size by the density of Aces and Tens, and you are willing to use a wide bet range. How much you vary your bet has a lot to do with EV if you know the density of both Aces and Tens. If I know the deck is both Ace dense and Ten dense I am going to up my bet more than a +- count would suggest because the probability of blackjack is higher and the probability of a soft double down is higher and the probability of getting an Ace on a 9 or 10 double down is higher. Originally Posted by Justin7
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11-01-07 07:17 PM #22
No sir, you have insufficient information to answer the question. I keep track of all cards that have been played, thus I know the composition of the remaining deck. But, I don't play multiple deck games so I would not see that situation. Originally Posted by Ganchrow
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11-01-07 07:19 PM #23
What does this have to do with what I am talking about? You are giving me basic strategy. I don't use basic strategy. I don't play shoe games. I only play single deck with good penetration. You don't understand what I mean by density. I don't mean total density I mean relative density to a standard deck. Is the remaining deck rich or poor in the key card? This does make a difference that +- counts cannot tell you. Originally Posted by Ganchrow
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11-01-07 08:00 PM #24
That was not basic strategy. That was composition dependent strategy. You made the claim that "with 12 vs dealer 7 ... the most important thing to know is the density of the 9 in the remaining cards. 9 rich you hit, 9 poor you stand." Originally Posted by curious
I demonstrated that with a 2-card player 12 versus a dealer 7 (single deck), the player's decision on whether to hit/stand/split does not change based on the number of 9s removed.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-01-07 08:04 PM #25
Yes, you are smarter than me. Do you feel better now? Originally Posted by Ganchrow
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11-01-07 08:06 PM #26
OK. So how about this: Originally Posted by curious
1 deck, S17, Dealer peeks. Originally Posted by curious
You have T4.
Dealer shows an A and does not have blackjack.
There are 35 cards remaining undealt, including 3 6s and 2 7s.
The density of 6s in the remaining cards is 8.57%.
The density of 7s in the remaining cards is 5.71%.
The ratio of 8s, 9s, and 10s in the remaining cards to 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, and 7s is 121.43%.
So now I ask you this: "What, with mathematical certitude, is the probability of winning this hand"?SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-01-07 08:15 PM #27
Your statement of your opinion regarding our relative levels of intellect makes me feel neither better nor worse and iis of course wholly irrelevant to the topic at hand. Originally Posted by curious
You've made certain claims on this a public forum, which I believe to be incorrect and as such I've attempted to refute them by virtue of logic and mathematical reasoning.
Whether I've succeeded or failed in this attempt, it says nothing about either one of us personally.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-02-07 10:17 AM #28
retracted
Last edited by operaman; 11-02-07 at 11:04 AM. Reason: <----rude asshole
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11-02-07 10:48 AM #29
Most of the time I don't know what the hell your talking about. But I know that if I could understand it, I could probably use this to make some money somehow. Did you graduate from MIT? Originally Posted by Ganchrow
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11-02-07 12:09 PM #30
What I have noticed about this blowhard is that most of the time he uses extremely complex "logic" that no one can understand to "prove" that someone else is "wrong" when he couldn't possibly know whether this is true or not because he doesn't have enough information. At least this is what he tries to do to me all the time. Originally Posted by Rollins08
In this case, he doesn't understand my extension of Slansky's key card concept, which is okay because I just briefly summariezed it, I wasn't trying to explain it in enough detail that anyone could use it or recreate it. And he posts all these "statistics" to "prove" that I am wrong. Which is a waste of time because he doesn't know my system, so he cannot possibly know whether it works or not.
It seems like this character gets a kick out of seeming to always be right while anyone else who tries to have an idea which is not his has to be wrong.
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11-02-07 12:22 PM #31
Were I not a moderator on this board I might just have to agree with you. Originally Posted by operman
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-02-07 12:23 PM #32
Listen Steve, you've made certain claims in this thread, which I've attempted to respectfully refute. Rather than respond to my refutations, however, you've instead decided to attack me personally. Originally Posted by curious
Here's a suggestion ... how about you address my arguments rather than let loose the ad hominem personal attacks? You might gain a little more credibility that way.
Just a thought.
And by the way, just because you can't understand that to which you refer as my "complex logic" doesn't mean there aren't scores of others on this board who can.SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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11-02-07 12:46 PM #33
Curious,
Why so defensive? Ganchrow is probably the best and most valuable poster on any gambling forum. He is the only reason I come here.
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11-02-07 01:19 PM #34
I second that. Although it sometakes takes me far longer to digest his posts that I believe it should, it's always worth the effort. Originally Posted by donjuan
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11-02-07 01:22 PM #35
Wong's books are useful especially for tournament play where the decision making process differs from the live game.As for counting cards I feel it's overrated.The chances of the house getting that 20 is the same as the player. When I play I do a very simple count, tracking the fives {the strongest card for the house** and the aces{the players best card because of the 3/2 payout on blackjack**. The plan is to win a set goal and stop. If you play for a long just for the sake of playing you're inviting the house edge to take over. I prefer one on one with the dealer.That way you're outcome isn't effected by other peoples
choices. Money management is VERY important when playing this game. Study and practice before you venture to a casino. A 25 dollar table can be a very expensive way to learn! Avoid on line games for any serious play.
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