10-23-07, 12:16 PM
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#1
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what the hell is a correlated parlays
never heard of it. sometimes to cover a bet i bet parlay to cover myself.
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10-23-07, 12:23 PM
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#2
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Billy, the term correlated parlay generally refers to an underdog and the under, or a favourite and the over. For example, lets say LSU is -38 and the total is 54 against Tulane. One correlated parlay might be LSU -38 and the over 54, while another correlated parlay would be Tulane +38 and the under 54. Obviously if one occurs, there's a heightened chance the other leg of the parlay will also. Hope this helps... 
__________________
We have punters on here that are so dedicated to this trade that they'll suck a 75 year old man off for gambling money. Now THAT'S commitment!
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10-23-07, 12:27 PM
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#3
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thanks
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10-23-07, 12:32 PM
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#4
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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10-23-07, 07:54 PM
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#5
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According to SBG Global, a correlated parlay is when the two teams play the same sport.
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10-23-07, 08:19 PM
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#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
According to SBG Global, a correlated parlay is when the two teams play the same sport.
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According to SB.com, it's any same game parlay. Winning pars push and losers stand. |
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10-23-07, 08:53 PM
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#7
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LETS GO PATS
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Like the total for first half and total for full game.
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10-24-07, 04:58 AM
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#8
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total for first half and total for full game, a sportsbook has a right to cancel before the game, in my opinion. The correlation is obvious and huge. But they need to list it in their rules as not allowed. I would never bet this even if a sportsbook forgot to not allow it. I don't like getting banned from a book, after they cancel my bet.
However, betting (over and fav) or (under and dog), these are popular parlays with the public, especially the (over and fav). What correlation there is - almost never overcomes the vig except in the case of high spread college games. Sportsbook.com just cancelled the bets from anyone with big net win from these popular parlays.
The books have no right to cancel these, and when they do they turn off not only advantage players but recreational bettors as well. Ideally the book would like both parts of the parlay to have no correlation. In reality, there is some correlation when parlaying total and spread but most books welcome the action; their 10% vig or whatever takes care of the correlation problem. WSEX, Olympic, 5 dimes all take bets that sportsbook.com uses as an excuse to steal.
Last edited by louis; 10-24-07 at 05:13 AM..
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10-24-07, 05:49 AM
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#9
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Fade Lang Nuff said
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
According to SBG Global, a correlated parlay is when the two teams play the same sport.
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LOL I like that one. |
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10-24-07, 07:20 AM
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#10
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Further clarification from SBG
I wrote to SBG management to get further clarification on what consitutes a correlated parlay. They said:
"There are several cases. First, the teams involved are playing the same sport. Second, the players involved are of the same species. Third, the locations of the games being played are the same planet. We hope this helps clarify why we stole all of your winnings. Thank you for depositing money with us that you can never withdraw."
SBG Management
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10-27-07, 11:49 AM
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#11
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Does this still fly?
Play 2 parlays on separate bets:
First parlay: favorite and over the total...
Second parlay: underdog and under the total...
"Now to qualify the games we use a simple mathematical calculation. The point-spread must be 33% or greater than that of the total in a particular game, and then we would have a qualifier."
Source:
Winning Parlay System
I think the NE/MIA game would qualify.
Looking at the lines, it looks like my book has blocked off the totals for that parlay..........
Last edited by jon13009; 10-28-07 at 09:48 AM..
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10-27-07, 12:12 PM
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#12
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I consider NE/over correlated although there are some that say the percentage isn't high enough here.
Ark/over is huge if you can get it.
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10-27-07, 12:30 PM
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#13
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Would this work?
I wonder if the offshore books would allow this:
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri OVER 56.5
Missouri -28.5
Fl Int'l / ARkansas OVER 58
Arkansas -40.5
Baylor / Kansas State OVER 59
Kansas State -26.5
And
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri UNDER 56.5
Iowa St +28.5
Fl Intl / Arkansas UNDER 58
Fl Intl +40.5
Baylor / Kansas St UNDER 59
Baylor +26.5
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10-27-07, 03:00 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
I wonder if the offshore books would allow this:
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri OVER 56.5
Missouri -28.5
Fl Int'l / ARkansas OVER 58
Arkansas -40.5
Baylor / Kansas State OVER 59
Kansas State -26.5
And
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri UNDER 56.5
Iowa St +28.5
Fl Intl / Arkansas UNDER 58
Fl Intl +40.5
Baylor / Kansas St UNDER 59
Baylor +26.5
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I can't believe it, this looks like it has a chance. LOL Looks like Iowa State and Fl Int'l might cover. LOL |
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10-27-07, 03:21 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
I can't believe it, this looks like it has a chance. LOL Looks like Iowa State and Fl Int'l might cover. LOL
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Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. Iowa St and Misery sure to get the OVER now. |
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10-27-07, 05:34 PM
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#16
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Okay, here is something that might work.
Find all the games where this Fav with the huge spread and OVER or Dog with the huge spread and UNDER is in play. I'm going to stick with the Fav and OVER for this example.
Label each of these games with a capital letter, A, B, C...etc.
Now treat each letter as one "side" and set up a 2 pick round robin of each of them.
Since each letter actually represents two picks, you have actually created 4 pick parlays instead of two. The Fav/OVER bets have to stay together for the same game.
This is what you would have had today:
Iowa St / Missouri A
Fl Int'l / Arkansas B
Baylor / Kansas St C
AB = Missouri -28.5 LOST 1 unit
Iowa St/Missouri OVER
Fl Int'l / Arkansas OVER
Arkansas -40.5
AC Missouri -28.5 LOST 1 unit
Iowa St / Missouri OVER
Baylor / Kansas St OVER
Kansas St -26.5
BC Fl Int'l / Arkansas OVER WIN 12 units
Arkansas -40.5
Baylor / Kansas St OVER
Kansas St -26.5
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10-27-07, 05:40 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
I wonder if the offshore books would allow this:
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri OVER 56.5
Missouri -28.5
Fl Int'l / ARkansas OVER 58
Arkansas -40.5
Baylor / Kansas State OVER 59
Kansas State -26.5
And
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri UNDER 56.5
Iowa St +28.5
Fl Intl / Arkansas UNDER 58
Fl Intl +40.5
Baylor / Kansas St UNDER 59
Baylor +26.5
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No book I know of will take that, esp. the +/- 40.5 leg of it, even the 26.5 is unbettable.
__________________
You Only Need Two Tools In Life - Wd-40 And Duct Tape. If It Doesn't Move And Should, Use The Wd-40. If It Shouldn't Move And Does, Use The Duct Tape.
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10-27-07, 05:54 PM
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#18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug
No book I know of will take that, esp. the +/- 40.5 leg of it, even the 26.5 is unbettable.
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those are two separate bets |
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10-28-07, 03:23 AM
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#19
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
those are two separate bets
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What Doug is saying is that you won't find a (reputable) book that will take any of the correlated parlays (A, B, and C).
If you do find such a book ... either expect to be quickly cut off or expect that they won't remain reputable for very much longer. |
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10-28-07, 09:42 AM
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#20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
those are two separate bets
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Yes it's two tickets, but you can't bet it. It would get rejected.
__________________
You Only Need Two Tools In Life - Wd-40 And Duct Tape. If It Doesn't Move And Should, Use The Wd-40. If It Shouldn't Move And Does, Use The Duct Tape.
Last edited by Doug; 10-28-07 at 09:46 AM..
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10-28-07, 10:16 AM
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#21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow
What Doug is saying is that you won't find a (reputable) book that will take any of the correlated parlays (A, B, and C).
If you do find such a book ... either expect to be quickly cut off or expect that they won't remain reputable for very much longer.
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They would reject a 6 pick parlay because 2 of the picks are correlated? I don't get that. |
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10-28-07, 10:35 AM
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#22
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look up 'correlated' in the dictionary and stop asking.
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10-28-07, 11:01 AM
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#23
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
They would reject a 6 pick parlay because 2 of the picks are correlated? I don't get that.
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Crazy. huh?
For the same reason that you (correctly) believe this bet to be profitable, books don't want to take the opposite side.
And to be clear it's actually 3 pairs of correlated bets. |
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10-28-07, 12:58 PM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganchrow
Crazy. huh?
For the same reason that you (correctly) believe this bet to be profitable, books don't want to take the opposite side.
And to be clear it's actually 3 pairs of correlated bets.
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Yes, I know that, but I was hoping the offshore books might not be smart enough to realize that if you camouflaged it a bit. |
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10-28-07, 01:45 PM
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#25
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
Yes, I know that, but I was hoping the offshore books might not be smart enough to realize that if you camouflaged it a bit.
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Yeah, what the books typically do is reject any parlay that contains any correlated legs.
You're right that the books are probably doing themselves a bit of a disservice not allowing minimally correlated games within much larger parlays, but they're obviously just trying to err on the side of caution. |
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10-31-07, 01:16 AM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HedgeHog
According to SB.com, it's any same game parlay.
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That and every other excuse they can think of that might be remotely close to the term "correlated parlays".  |
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10-31-07, 09:09 AM
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#27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by curious
I wonder if the offshore books would allow this:
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri OVER 56.5
Missouri -28.5
Fl Int'l / ARkansas OVER 58
Arkansas -40.5
Baylor / Kansas State OVER 59
Kansas State -26.5
And
6 pick parlay:
Iowa St / Missouri UNDER 56.5
Iowa St +28.5
Fl Intl / Arkansas UNDER 58
Fl Intl +40.5
Baylor / Kansas St UNDER 59
Baylor +26.5
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Good luck with those picks. |
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