[bigboydan]

i'm looking at some of these remaining games on this years bowl schedual, and i'm thinking some of these dogs might just have a chance of winning out right. i'm just not sure if i wanna take the safety valve or not by taking the points or playing the money lines.

what do you guys think of this strategy if your a dog backer on the rest of the bowl games ?

[EBone]

I think history says: "play ML dogs on games before New Year's, favs on games on or after New Year's". I'd say South Florida and Iowa State would do well on the moneyline. I would personally be cautious on the New Year's Day games.


E

[bigboydan]

Ebone, you do have a point about the new years day games. because, i've noticed that over the years myself. thanks for refreshing my memory on that one

[isetcap]

I think it just depends on the amount of deviation your overall strategy allows you to accept. If you don't mind having your bankroll on a rollercoaster, then without a doubt I would suggest hitting the moneylines and getting maximum value out of your picks. If you are striving for more consistency in your stack then work with the spreads. Personally I would suggest just doing whatever Pags is doing.

[SBR_John]

Here is my simple formula for football.

Always play ML's on 1-3 point dogs.

Selectively play ML's on 4-7 point dogs

Never play 8+ ML dogs

Never play ML favorites

[pags11]

agree with ebone...as we get closer to New Years Day, I'm more inclined to just take the points, rather than make a play on the ML...

[SBR_John]

You would have been destroyed playing NCAA money line favorites. They may make a little more sense in the NFL I dont really know. But in college, ML favorites are a recipe to going broke!

[Illusion]

I usually only bet spreads unless like John said there's a moneyline dog I like between 1-3 points.