[Dave Matuck]

I have read on various boards/websites that only 3-5% of total sports bettors win in the long term. Is this correct.

I have also read that a great percentage for a year is 56% and only 2% of sports bettors can reach that.

These percentages seems low. Are they correct?

[Stumpage]

Well, I don't know about the percent of gamblers who are successful, but the 56% is indeed a great winning percentage. Obviously, not great for somebody who only takes massive favorites, but very, very impessive for the "-110bettors" or whatever the official term is, as it escapes me currently.

[Rollins08]

Those number seem correct. The average person will never win long term.

[WileOut]

No those numbers are nowhere near correct. Most people do lose in the long run but it is a number somewhere around 54%. Which means that about 46% win in the long run.

Think about it. If you know absolutely nothing about either team and just pick a side, you have a 50% of winning. Short term and long term.

However many players use terrible money management like chasing or doubling up. Therefore the 4-5% extra that dont win.

You can look at Nevada sports gambling operations numbers and see that they hold like 14%. Which means that they take in 4% above the juice for every game. 46% of the people win long term.

[Rollins08]

WileOut, your logic is off. For any given bet the chances of winning are 50/50, but you have to pay a vig on the loses. So if place 100 bets of $100 each and go 50/50 your going to have to pay a $10 vig on the 50 losses which is a net lose of $500. The more best you place the more you will lose if you go 50/50. The only people who will make money are the few who can win long term with a higher winning percentage than 50%. I don't think that can be much more than 3-5%.

[ShamsWoof10]

No those numbers are nowhere near correct. Most people do lose in the long run but it is a number somewhere around 54%. Which means that about 46% win in the long run.

Think about it. If you know absolutely nothing about either team and just pick a side, you have a 50% of winning. Short term and long term.

However many players use terrible money management like chasing or doubling up. Therefore the 4-5% extra that dont win.

You can look at Nevada sports gambling operations numbers and see that they hold like 14%. Which means that they take in 4% above the juice for every game. 46% of the people win long term.

His logic is not the only thing that is off... There is no way on earth or any other planet where 46% of the people win long term.. You are waaaaaaay off on that.. 3% sounds right... 46% might be right if that pool of people made ONLY ONE BET... The more bets you place the more likely you will lose... After ONE BET it might be 46% but every bet after that it will go down and long term waaaaay down to probably about 3%...

[Rollins08]

I was trying to be nice by just saying "logic".

[Ganchrow]

I have read on various boards/websites that only 3-5% of total sports bettors win in the long term. Is this correct.

It really depends on how you define the "long-term". If you define it in the mathematical sense of "that number of bets such that the impact of pure luck is negligible", then that's really a question best answered by the books, and one to which I wouldn't even attempt to hazard a guess.

If, however, you're referring to the long-term in the more pedestrian sense of the number of bets typically placed over some given stretch of time, then we can at least come up with a minimum figure using the binomial distribution and assuming coin-flip bettors.

Given coin-flip N bets, for a bettor to be profitable at -110, he'd need to hit at a rate > 11*N/21.

Hence, we'd expect purely by luck alone, for =BINOMDIST(N-11/21*N, N, 50%, 1) to be profitable over N bets. where =BINOMDIST() refers to the Excel binomial distribution function.

So purely by chance, given the stated number of coin-flip bets:

Over 500 bets we'd expect 15.1834% of bettors to be profitable.
Over 1,000 bets we'd expect 6.8584% of bettors to be profitable.
Over 1,500 bets we'd expect 3.3368% of bettors to be profitable.
Over 2,500 bets we'd expect 0.8648% of bettors to be profitable.
Over 5,000 bets we'd expect 0.0362% of bettors to be profitable.

etc.

[jjgold]

1% possibly win but the morte bets you make your guaranteed to lose

math does not lie

[raiders72002]

I'd say a little less on this board. About .8 %.

[mv09]

Only 2% reach 56% over a year??
No way. Is that real?

[ShamsWoof10]

I am confident in saying I hit over 60%... and STILL LOSE MONEY... Money management, chasing, and all that other sh*t you brought up is why... I can hit 10 games in a row and lose my profit in two...

[Starion]

I asked a similar question to my local years ago. The question was whether he made most of his money off the juice or losing gamblers. The answer was that the losing gamblers were a much bigger portion of his income. He said he could basically offer 0 juice and still make tons of money. This is because he's dealing with the average guy for the most part.

The idea that every given game is a 50/50 proposition is not accurate at all. Just look at favorites in the NFL. If you bet every favorite on the board long term you'd be under the 50% win mark.

Most of my success comes from games that don't look right. For example: Say New England was only a 7pt favorite over Miami next week. Most people will say wow that's an awesome line, let me load up on New England. I'd be scratching my head and be looking for key injuries or some reason for the line to be where it's at. Absent any significant reason, I'd be all over Miami in that game. The oddsmakers don't make mistakes, the lines are where they are for a reason for the most part.

When I was younger I used to be puzzled why I'd lose so many easy games that just seemed like absolute locks. There's no such thing as a lock or easy game.

[mshanedub420]

Juice is huge, many people end up losing by "breaking even" so 56% on your cash is actually winning like 65-70% or your bets

[WileOut]

I was going by some numbers I saw somewhere about a big Las Vegas sports gambling operation. It said they keep about 14 cents of every dollar wagered on -110 bets (gross). You figure that 9 cents (9%) of it is juice so only 5 cents (5%) would be from gamblers actually losing. Of course I cant remember where I saw those figures but I definately do remember those numbers.

It was 5% now that I think about it, not 4% like I said in my first post.

I'm 99.9% sure of these numbers but if I am wrong it wouldn't be the first time.

[ShamsWoof10]

I asked a similar question to my local years ago. The question was whether he made most of his money off the juice or losing gamblers. The answer was that the losing gamblers were a much bigger portion of his income. He said he could basically offer 0 juice and still make tons of money. This is because he's dealing with the average guy for the most part.

The idea that every given game is a 50/50 proposition is not accurate at all. Just look at favorites in the NFL. If you bet every favorite on the board long term you'd be under the 50% win mark.

Most of my success comes from games that don't look right. For example: Say New England was only a 7pt favorite over Miami next week. Most people will say wow that's an awesome line, let me load up on New England. I'd be scratching my head and be looking for key injuries or some reason for the line to be where it's at. Absent any significant reason, I'd be all over Miami in that game. The oddsmakers don't make mistakes, the lines are where they are for a reason for the most part.

When I was younger I used to be puzzled why I'd lose so many easy games that just seemed like absolute locks. There's no such thing as a lock or easy game.

I agree with you about fading bad lines but sometimes they are just bad lines... I would say you are usually right..

However arguments like what if you bet the favorite in the NFL every week for the last three years is just simply ridiculous and not realistic.. Who the hell does anyone know that did that..? I agree also that books make off of losing bettors not just juice... Pinny. isn't in the game to make 4% juice guys...

[Dark Horse]

Picking winners and finding angles is easy. But character weaknesses get to people. The first that comes to mind is greed (aka as bad money management). And without persistence, patience, and especially discipline nobody is going to succeed in this field over the long run. The personality traps are many, and people tend to underestimate them. Ultimately, and aside from all direct gambling knowledge, it comes down to how well you know yourself. Gambling can greatly unbalance a person, but in that same light can be seen as a great teacher of balance.

It's vastly more personal than a percentage.

[durito]

Those #'s are high imo.

I'd say less than 1% win in the long run.

[Tchocky]

Who knows? Who keeps track of this stuff? I couldn't tell with any certainty what my winning percentage is and I'm sure most of the guys on this board couldn't as well. As long I'm withdrawing more than I'm depositing, then I feel like I'm doing well.

[ShamsWoof10]

Picking winners and finding angles is easy. But character weaknesses get to people. The first that comes to mind is greed (aka as bad money management). And without persistence, patience, and especially discipline nobody is going to succeed in this field over the long run. The personality traps are many, and people tend to underestimate them. Ultimately, and aside from all direct gambling knowledge, it comes down to how well you know yourself. Gambling can greatly unbalance a person, but in that same light can be seen as a great teacher of balance.

It's vastly more personal than a percentage.

Very realistic post... I couldn't have said it better myself DH.. VERY GOOD!!!

[Al Masters]

Picking winners and finding angles is easy. But character weaknesses get to people. The first that comes to mind is greed (aka as bad money management). And without persistence, patience, and especially discipline nobody is going to succeed in this field over the long run. The personality traps are many, and people tend to underestimate them. Ultimately, and aside from all direct gambling knowledge, it comes down to how well you know yourself. Gambling can greatly unbalance a person, but in that same light can be seen as a great teacher of balance.

It's vastly more personal than a percentage.

Nice post!

[operaman]

A party poker high up said 2 years ago that 3% of the accounts on party won money during the past year.


If that was the truth I would think only aroundish 1% of poker players are winners in over the long term. This would probably mean that winning sports bettors are around the same %.(not over a short period, but at an infinite time frame.)

[Scooter]

If anyone wants to further research this - google for info on Las Vegas casino profits.
Although the sportsbooks are not usually listed separately, I have seen this kind of info pop up in annual reports listed in "Gaming Today" and other publications.
(This won't answer the OP's question, but will answer the matter of sportsbook hold/profits).

People in this thread haven't mentioned the main profit center for NV sportsbooks - parlays and teasers.

[HedgeHog]

Maybe 1%, but no more than 2%. Who knows for sure? The winners keep quiet; and the losers brag about their one "lock" win.

[raiders72002]

Atl is a "LOCK" tonight.

[pokernut9999]

It is impossible for anyone to know what % wins. There are no records kept and no math formula can predict that. I personally find 1% a silly number. I doubt only 1 out of every 100 people win betting sports. I believe it was about 3 years ago a lot of local bookies got killed almost every week. A figure of 1% is nowhere close.

As far as poker being 3% has to be far off base. I played or have played at 6 different sites and am well ahead at all of them. I consider myself a pretty good player but not in the top 3%.

Yes majority of players lose but 1 to 3% winners is ridiculous.

[jjgold]

I would think some poker players are lifetime winners especially guys playing big tourneys with huge winning pots.

[HedgeHog]

Atl is a "LOCK" tonight.

I know you don't believe in Locks; yanking our collective chains a little?

[HedgeHog]

It is impossible for anyone to know what % wins. There are no records kept and no math formula can predict that. I personally find 1% a silly number. I doubt only 1 out of every 100 people win betting sports. I believe it was about 3 years ago a lot of local bookies got killed almost every week. A figure of 1% is nowhere close.

As far as poker being 3% has to be far off base. I played or have played at 6 different sites and am well ahead at all of them. I consider myself a pretty good player but not in the top 3%.

Yes majority of players lose but 1 to 3% winners is ridiculous.

The question is about Sports players, not poker players, totally different animals. Also, we're talking long term (i.e. years), and you'd be lucky to find 1 in 100 that can stay in the black long term.

[pokernut9999]

The question is about Sports players, not poker players, totally different animals. Also, we're talking long term (i.e. years), and you'd be lucky to find 1 in 100 that can stay in the black long term.

I know and the 1st part of my statement was about sports and the 2nd part was about poker.

[mv09]

So basicially this thread is telling me that I should be expecting a real bad time coming up soon hehe
So Far, Ive been winning on NFL every week, while breaking even on NCAA for the most part.