[eyeball]

Which would you guys play a -7 -110 or a -7.5 +100.
Sometimes on Matcbook they have some weird lines with hardly any juice, but the line is usually 1/2 worse than everywhere else. I was wondering which is a better deal in the long run. I was thinking take the 1/2 point because you don't pay any juice unless you win. What do you experts out there think?

[durito]

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[eyeball]

I wasn't referring to buying a point just sometimes the various books will have lines like I stated with diffrent juice amounts. Sometimes you get beat by 1/2, the booking system is set up using -110. So if one book has it listed a 1/2 POINT WORSE, but with less juice what would you do?

[pavyracer]

Which would you guys play a -7 -110 or a -7.5 +100.
Sometimes on Matcbook they have some weird lines with hardly any juice, but the line is usually 1/2 worse than everywhere else. I was wondering which is a better deal in the long run. I was thinking take the 1/2 point because you don't pay any juice unless you win. What do you experts out there think?

I always prefer a juiced winning bet rather than a non-juiced losing bet.

[curious]

Given the choice between getting points or giving up juice, I would almost always take the points. I would rather have a win at -110 than a loss at +100. Ganch be dammed. (Because I figure he will post a three page college course on some obscure probability and statistics formula that no one will understand).

[20Four7]

The Ganchulator will tell you which is better but I have to have a damned good reason to give 7 1/2. Much the same as I need a Damned good reason to only get 6 1/2. I like houston today and bought to 7 1/2 even tho I think they will win outright. I have them 6 points better in my handicapping.

[prop]

In this example -7 -110 is better.

[Ganchrow]

Which would you guys play a -7 -110 or a -7.5 +100.
Sometimes on Matcbook they have some weird lines with hardly any juice, but the line is usually 1/2 worse than everywhere else. I was wondering which is a better deal in the long run. I was thinking take the 1/2 point because you don't pay any juice unless you win. What do you experts out there think?

Using my half-point calculator:

1. Set the spread to 7 in the above portion of the calculator
2. Set both the fave and dog prices to -110, also in the above portion of the calculator
3. In the bottom portion of the calculator, next to a spread of 7.5, set the fave price to +100.
4. the fave edge next to a spread and price of -7 -110 is -4.5%
5. the fave edge next to a spread and price of -7.5 +100 is -5.7%

Hence, the -7 -110 is superior to the -7.5 +100.

[eyeball]

Thanks man I got it..I didn't know how to use the 1/2 point calculator before

[curious]

Ganch is leaving out one small fact. The number of times you will lose if you have -7.5 because of the number of games that are decided by 7 points. The "value" of a 1/2 point is very different when that 1/2 point is the difference between a loss and a push on a danger number like 7 or 3.

[jjgold]

Buying 1/2 poiunts is one of the biggest sucker bets in the world next to the parlay bet.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch is leaving out one small fact. The number of times you will lose if you have -7.5 because of the number of games that are decided by 7 points. The "value" of a 1/2 point is very different when that 1/2 point is the difference between a loss and a push on a danger number like 7 or 3.

No. It does take that into account. That's the whole point of the calculator -- determining the value of different half-points based upon the likelihood of the associated numbers coming up.

In the above example we'd expect the spread to push on the spread of 7 with probability 5.7%, win with probability of about 50%-5.7%/2 = 47.15%, and lose with probability of about 47.15%. impliesa net win probability (i.e., ignoring pushes) of ^47.15% / _{(47.15%+47.15%)} = 50%. So at odds of -110, this corresponds to an expectation of about 50% × (1+100/110) - 1 = -4.5%.

By buying the, 7, we'd turn all our pushes into losses, while leaving our wins unchanged. This gives us a win probability of the same 47.15% but a loss probability of about 47.15%+5.7% = 52.85%. At odds of +100, this corresponds to an expectation of about 47.15%*2 - 1 = -5.7%.

So based upon the above, the -7 -110 would be preferable to the -7.5 +100.

[Ganchrow]

Buying 1/2 poiunts is one of the biggest sucker bets in the world next to the parlay bet.

Anyone who generalizes is making a huge mistake.

[eyeball]

Ganch,
I am having trouble locating the 1/2 point calculator on the web site. Is it in this forum section, or on the SBR Odds. Because it is not listed in the tools or calculator section.

[Ganchrow]

Ganch,
I am having trouble locating the 1/2 point calculator on the web site. Is it in this forum section, or on the SBR Odds. Because it is not listed in the tools or calculator section.

Click "Tools" above (from the forum), taking you to http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Home.aspx. Then click on the half-point calculator.

[eyeball]

Tht calculator is great, I tried it with a few spreads, it really tells you when to shop for a 1/2 point or not.

[bigboydan]

Tht calculator is great,

ALL Ganchrow's betting tools are very useful.

[curious]

No. It does take that into account. That's the whole point of the calculator -- determining the value of different half-points based upon the likelihood of the associated numbers coming up.

In the above example we'd expect the spread to push on the spread of 7 with probability 5.7%, win with probability of about 50%-5.7%/2 = 47.15%, and lose with probability of about 47.15%. impliesa net win probability (i.e., ignoring pushes) of ^47.15% / _{(47.15%+47.15%)} = 50%. So at odds of -110, this corresponds to an expectation of about 50% × (1+100/110) - 1 = -4.5%.

By buying the, 7, we'd turn all our pushes into losses, while leaving our wins unchanged. This gives us a win probability of the same 47.15% but a loss probability of about 47.15%+5.7% = 52.85%. At odds of +100, this corresponds to an expectation of about 47.15%*2 - 1 = -5.7%.

So based upon the above, the -7 -110 would be preferable to the -7.5 +100.

Well, I talked to you about this before and you said that I didn't understand the probability of a push for a given total chart and it had no bearing on whether you should buy a 1/2 point or not and you argued with me that a 1/2 point should never be bought to get off of danger numbers. So I guess I am confused as to what you really believe.

[durito]

Well, I talked to you about this before and you said that I didn't understand the probability of a push for a given total chart and it had no bearing on whether you should buy a 1/2 point or not and you argued with me that a 1/2 point should never be bought to get off of danger numbers. So I guess I am confused as to what you really believe.

[Ganchrow]

You said that ... [the push probability chart] had no bearing on whether you should buy a 1/2 point or not and you argued with me that a 1/2 point should never be bought to get off of danger numbers.

You must have misunderstood me. I wouldn't have said that.

[Dark Horse]

As a rule of thumb, buy on/off and even through 3 (if the price is right), buy on/off 7, and buy on/off the total 37. This is for the NFL and based on the math in 'Win More, Lose Less'. Things are different in college; easier to find middles around big spreads like 17.

[Ganchrow]

As a rule of thumb, buy on/off and even through 3 (if the price is right), buy on/off 7, and buy on/off the total 37. This is for the NFL and based on the math in 'Win More, Lose Less'. Things are different in college; easier to find middles around big spreads like 17.

Obviously it depends on how much they're charging you. That where the half-point calculator comes in handy.

[crysbreeze]

Is there any chance an addition of football 1st and 2nd halves and/or NHL totals to the half point calculator is in the works? If not, is there a rough manual way to calculate these? The tools are amazing and I thank you for providing them.

[Ganchrow]

Is there any chance an addition of football 1st and 2nd halves and/or NHL totals to the half point calculator is in the works? If not, is there a rough manual way to calculate these? The tools are amazing and I thank you for providing them.

The problem with the NHL is that the rules changes a couple years back have rendered earlier scoring data virtually useless in predicting push likelihoods. That said, I do know of a particularly sharp SBR poster who's been looking at this, and so maybe we'll be able to come up with something.

As far as 1st and 2nd half numbers go I simply lack sufficient clean data. If anyone happens to know of a good source, I'd certainly look into it.

[bigboydan]

The problem with the NHL is that the rules changes a couple years back have rendered earlier scoring data virtually useless in predicting push likelihoods

Tell me about it Ganchrow.

[eyeball]

Ok, I know all the Pro's like the Coach say never buy a 1/2 point. But I used the 1/2 point calculator

NFl spread at -3 -110 -4.55%

NFL spread at -2.5 -120 +.64 %

So if the expectation is a higher % than why not. Can any of the expirenced guys explain this.

[Ganchrow]

Ok, I know all the Pro's like the Coach say never buy a 1/2 point. But I used the 1/2 point calculator

NFl spread at -3 -110 -4.55%

NFL spread at -2.5 -120 +.64 %

So if the expectation is a higher % than why not. Can any of the expirenced guys explain this.

1. Never take anything "the Coach" says seriously. Ever.
2. Anyone who would tell you never to buy a half-point is being exceedingly foolish. Same goes for someone who would tell you always to buy a half-point. Like any any asset, you buy when the price is sufficiently low and sell when it's sufficiently high.
3. Good luck finding a reputable book that allows you to buy on or off the NFL 3-point for a dime.

[m3vr6]

may as well buy another half -6 1/2

I agree..