Quote:
Originally Posted by idontlikerocks
i don't understand your comment. the idea i have is that the second game has started before the first is over or i have no way to bet the second game because i am working or some such and i want to have action on it provided the first bet loses.
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I'm not aware of any book that offers IF-LOSE bets, but I'd suspect such a book probably does exist.
However, you can synthesize IF-LOSE bets, using a combination of straight bet and parlays. The downside of this approach is that you'd be paying additional juice.
Let's say you wanted to risk 1 unit on A and IF-LOSE 1 unit on B. With both A&B are expected to win with probability 50%. We'll see how one could come as close as possible to synthesizing the economic results of such a bet.
We'll look at two cases, both assuming true praly odds. First we'll assume no-juice where one can bet on any of A, A's opponent, B, or B's opponent at +100. Second we'll assume standard 4.545% juice, where one can bet on any of A, A's opponent, B, or B's opponent at -110.
- No-juice. A 1-unit IF-LOSE bet would net in unit terms as follows:
A wins (50% probability): +1
A loses, B wins (25% probability): +0
A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2
This corresponds to juice of 0%.
In order to duplicate this, we'd bet 1.5 units on A, and 0.5 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B )paying out at +300). This implies:
A wins (50% probability): +1.5 on A -0.5 on parlay = 1
A loses, B wins (25% probability): -1.5 on A +1.5 on parlay = 0
A loses, B loses (25% probability): -1.5 on A -0.5 on parlay = -2
This precisely duplicates the results of the IF-LOSE.
- 4.545% juice. A 1.1-unit IF-LOSE bet would net in unit terms as follows:
A wins (50% probability): +1
A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1
A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2
This corresponds to juice of 0.075 units or 3.409% of max loss.
In order to approximating this (technically, in order to minimize the mean squared outcome differentials), we'd bet 1.6683 units on A, 0.0027 units on B and 0.5707 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B (paying out at true parlay odds of +264.46). This implies:A wins, B Wins (25% probability): +0.9485
A wins, B Loses (25% probability): +0.9433
A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1567
A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2417
This corresponds to juice of 0.1267 units or 5.650% of max loss.
If instead we wanted to match the max loss of the IF-LOSE bet, we'd bet 1.6424 units on A, 0.5576 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B. This implies:
A wins (50% probability): +0.9354
A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1676
A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2000
This corresponds to juice of 0.1267 units or 5.645% of max loss.
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