[pico]

i think i am the biggest if bets player on this forum

how many of you guys like to use if bets? any strategy you like to share?

[indianachris]

I'll bet on a team IF I have money in my account. That's my strategy.

[HedgeHog]

Perhaps I'm the 2nd biggest If player here, but I'm very choosy. My strategy is to correlate my If (same game side and total) and try to offset the crucial first half of the IF. For example, I have an IF on Balt -9 and over 36.5 in that game, each for 550/500. And I offset the 1st part elsewhere with STL +10.5 600/500. My thinking is that a Ravens' win by 10 or more will likely put the total over. Also, I have an okay middle on the Balt by 10 (9 is alright too).

[pico]

i love the greek because in their if bets you can bet more on the second part. you can't do that in 5 dimes. you can place a bet like this:

bet 22 to win 20 for patriots cover

if win only

bet 2200 to win 2000 for colts to cover.

a lot of books you can only wager up to the amount that you win in the first part. that is why i think greek is way better than any other book.

[idontlikerocks]

does anybody offer an if lose bet.? example if balt -6 loses at 110 to win 100 then ariz +17 110 to win 100 is on ?

[pico]

Originally Posted by idontlikerocks

does anybody offer an if lose bet.? example if balt -6 loses at 110 to win 100 then ariz +17 110 to win 100 is on ?

just bet the other side, then it is the same as a if lose bet.

[idontlikerocks]

i don't understand your comment. the idea i have is that the second game has started before the first is over or i have no way to bet the second game because i am working or some such and i want to have action on it provided the first bet loses.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by idontlikerocks

i don't understand your comment. the idea i have is that the second game has started before the first is over or i have no way to bet the second game because i am working or some such and i want to have action on it provided the first bet loses.

I'm not aware of any book that offers IF-LOSE bets, but I'd suspect such a book probably does exist.

However, you can synthesize IF-LOSE bets, using a combination of straight bet and parlays. The downside of this approach is that you'd be paying additional juice.

Let's say you wanted to risk 1 unit on A and IF-LOSE 1 unit on B. With both A&B are expected to win with probability 50%. We'll see how one could come as close as possible to synthesizing the economic results of such a bet.

We'll look at two cases, both assuming true praly odds. First we'll assume no-juice where one can bet on any of A, A's opponent, B, or B's opponent at +100. Second we'll assume standard 4.545% juice, where one can bet on any of A, A's opponent, B, or B's opponent at -110.

1. No-juice. A 1-unit IF-LOSE bet would net in unit terms as follows:

   A wins (50% probability): +1
   A loses, B wins (25% probability): +0
   A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2
   

   This corresponds to juice of 0%.
   
   In order to duplicate this, we'd bet 1.5 units on A, and 0.5 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B )paying out at +300). This implies:
   

   A wins (50% probability): +1.5 on A -0.5 on parlay = 1
   A loses, B wins (25% probability): -1.5 on A +1.5 on parlay = 0
   A loses, B loses (25% probability): -1.5 on A -0.5 on parlay = -2
   

   This precisely duplicates the results of the IF-LOSE.
   
   
2. 4.545% juice. A 1.1-unit IF-LOSE bet would net in unit terms as follows:

   A wins (50% probability): +1
   A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1
   A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2
   

   This corresponds to juice of 0.075 units or 3.409% of max loss.
   
   In order to approximating this (technically, in order to minimize the mean squared outcome differentials), we'd bet 1.6683 units on A, 0.0027 units on B and 0.5707 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B (paying out at true parlay odds of +264.46). This implies:

   A wins, B Wins (25% probability): +0.9485
   A wins, B Loses (25% probability): +0.9433
   A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1567
   A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2417
   

   This corresponds to juice of 0.1267 units or 5.650% of max loss.
   
   If instead we wanted to match the max loss of the IF-LOSE bet, we'd bet 1.6424 units on A, 0.5576 units on the parlay of A's opponent and B. This implies:

   
   A wins (50% probability): +0.9354
   A loses, B wins (25% probability): -0.1676
   A loses, B loses (25% probability): -2.2000
   

   This corresponds to juice of 0.1267 units or 5.645% of max loss.

[gmoney641]

WSEX offers if bets for different amounts, more or less.

Originally Posted by picoman

i love the greek because in their if bets you can bet more on the second part. you can't do that in 5 dimes. you can place a bet like this:

bet 22 to win 20 for patriots cover

if win only

bet 2200 to win 2000 for colts to cover.

a lot of books you can only wager up to the amount that you win in the first part. that is why i think greek is way better than any other book.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

i think i am the biggest if bets player on this forum

how many of you guys like to use if bets? any strategy you like to share?

I can't think of any value from standard IF-BETS (ignoring book-specific idiosyncrasies) to an advantage player in excess of parlays and straight bets, other than to either circumvent limits, or to bypass parlays paying out at less than true parlay odds.

[bigboydan]

Originally Posted by picoman

i think i am the biggest if bets player on this forum

Might I ask why you even bet these at all Pico?

[pico]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Might I ask why you even bet these at all Pico?

i have a unique strategy, which most of you posters will think i am a ****ing idiot if i post it here...especially ganchrow because i did the expected payoff calculation and it is much worse than flat bets. i do if bets because i like more action...getting a higher payoff when i am on a winning streak. if bets is better than parlays (for me mentally) because you still get some compensation for hitting the first bet and lose on the second.

anyways, i don't wager much on the if bets. if i am doing flat bets on pinny for 1 dime, then i'll probably do couple of if bets on the greek for a much smaller amount.

i hit a 3 team if bets yesterday, whcih is pretty nice. but if i did a parlay, i would probably win 4 times more, oh well, a win is a win.

[ShamsWoof10]

I like IF Bets personally... SBoo doesn't let you do IF Bets for second half anymore which sucks but I am not gonna run to SBR about it... Anyway I like IF Bets because I can have action on multiple games without having stake on all of them... I like to limit my downside...

I do NOT like the fact that SBoo won't let you change the amount of the second IF Bet but such as life... Wagerstreet let's you do that and let's you, as we discussed before, make any straight an IF Bet as long as it's still pending...

[Bluehorseshoe]

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

I like IF Bets personally... SBoo doesn't let you do IF Bets for second half anymore which sucks but I am not gonna run to SBR about it...

What kind of bet was it?