[Dark Horse]

Observation. I see a market that is completely hypnotized by the Fed. The rate cut from September 18th was the first in four years. The market responded not once, but three times to the same rate cut! In anticipation of, in reaction to, and even afterwards when the Fed minutes from the rate cut were released three weeks later. These minutes gave investors reason to believe in another rate cut.

New elements: The new Chairman (Bernanke) and new Secretary of the Treasury (Paulson) meet weekly, and are part of the Plunge Protection Team. All this novelty created a climate of uncertainty, but that has now changed to total dependency. When the Fed winks the market jumps.

Hard for shorters. Good news will make the market rise, but so will bad news, because it will be seen as reason for another rate cut. Everybody in the market knows this, so who is left to sell? This is not a bull market, but a market that is bullied upwards.

Normally I would short the market tomorrow, for a few weeks, but in the present climate that seems hardly worth it.

Thoughts?

[forex]

I was short the nasdaq 4 days ago looking for a double top but the tech shares led by especially goog and aapl just blew past resistance levels. So I got out this morning. Look for tech to lead the nasdaq further higher, there is no telling how high it can go. This could be the beginning of another bullish tech cycle.

[ShamsWoof10]

DH you mentioned the "Plung Protection Team" also formally known as "The Working Group on Financial Markets"... I used to think there were made up of 31 members and all 31 were bank CEO's... Can you specifiy to the best of your knowledge who makes up this group..? You mentioned two above..

I know I am beating a DarkHorse...or is that a dead one..? No matter but we are having inflation and it is my opinion that is the single most major important factor to why things are all happening... M-3 (basically speaking the creation of momey by the fed each day) is at 14% and in my opinion inflation of creating more money with it's buy product being higher prices...

Oil and other comd. have gone up, the market has gone up, basically every major currency is going up and the dollar index down, and of course higher prices for everything from gas to milk and my friend who owns a carryout says beer is next...

The media drum up and Fed chatter is all sugar coating because they don't want to come on the air and tell everyone it's because of inflation.... They classified M-3 April 1st of 06'... I wonder why..????

The market will keep going higher and for the same reason ...inflation...

I was short the nasdaq 4 days ago looking for a double top but the tech shares led by especially goog and aapl just blew past resistance levels. So I got out this morning. Look for tech to lead the nasdaq further higher, there is no telling how high it can go. This could be the beginning of another bullish tech cycle.

We've had the beginning my friend... but as the CEO of Cisco said.. this next tech boom is going to rival that of the 90's... I believe he is grossly understating it... The Nas. may very well break old DOW levels (7,286) and the DOW may go to 30K in 10 years or higher...

I would also like to add that rates will not be cut anytime soon and I say that because the bond market is telling me rates are going higher... In my opinion they pause then raise...

[forex]

DH you mentioned the "Plung Protection Team" also formally known as "The Working Group on Financial Markets"... I used to think there were made up of 31 members and all 31 were bank CEO's... Can you specifiy to the best of your knowledge who makes up this group..? You mentioned two above..

I know I am beating a DarkHorse...or is that a dead one..? No matter but we are having inflation and it is my opinion that is the single most major important factor to why things are all happening... M-3 (basically speaking the creation of momey by the fed each day) is at 14% and in my opinion inflation of creating more money with it's buy product being higher prices...

Oil and other comd. have gone up, the market has gone up, basically every major currency is going up and the dollar index down, and of course higher prices for everything from gas to milk and my friend who owns a carryout says beer is next...

The media drum up and Fed chatter is all sugar coating because they don't want to come on the air and tell everyone it's because of inflation.... They classified M-3 April 1st of 06'... I wonder why..????

The market will keep going higher and for the same reason ...inflation...



We've had the beginning my friend... but as the CEO of Cisco said.. this next tech boom is going to rival that of the 90's... I believe he is grossly understating it... The Nas. may very well break old DOW levels (7,286) and the DOW may go to 30K in 10 years or higher...

I would also like to add that rates will not be cut anytime soon and I say that because the bond market is telling me rates are going higher... In my opinion they pause then raise...

For sure, we are now over 70% service economy now, and tech will without a doubt outperform almost any other investment for the next 2 to 15 years.

Inflation is a huge problem, M3 is a gdamn huge issue and quite frankly I don't know why more people aren't outraged that this is n't a public issue. But then again even if it is public it will easily be manipulated. The role of the fed is to make markets stable at whatever cost if that means hiding true data and manipulating data then thats their job. I think there are some good investments right now especially in commodities like gold, silver, oil, some foreign currencies like canadian dollar and euro. But in the short term the grains especially wheat prices are ridiculously high and come next spring when farmers begin new plantings every farmer in the world is going to plant wheat to make a profit then you are going to see higer demand in corn and ethanol.

[Dark Horse]

PPT consists of just four representatives: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team

Larry Kudlow recently mentioned them on CNBC as a little know, highly secretive group: "the Committee to Save the World".

The PPT was originally intended to prevent market collapses, but, especially since Paulson became Secretary, has become much more active. The result, in my opinion, is a forced type of growth, not balanced by normal negatives.

The market is 'supposed' to react to bad news. When it doesn't, because bad news is seen as reason for another rate cut, we get into very strange territory, because now the Fed (part of PPT) is almost forced into giving that rate cut, otherwise the market might collapse. This is one weird tango. (The Fed itself is another very questionable institution. See fdrs.org).

[Dark Horse]

By the way, the Dow was up about 120 pts earlier today and has just plunged into giving it all back. It's now down for the day. A drop of 150 pts in about 40 minutes... lol. WTF?

What happened?

[forex]

I always seem to get out at the very worst times. GFD

[Dark Horse]

Isn't Bernanke giving a speech tomorrow? What if it was leaked (again)?

Another weird thing. Not a single comment on CNBC about this huge movement so far, as it is happening. They're normally on top of every move.

[forex]

yeah speaking tomorrow before the open, bunch of numbers coming out tomorrow as well

[Dark Horse]

There is no news behind this drop. Very shadowy. Happened before, a couple of months ago, a day before Bernanke spoke. Then the sudden movement, out of absolutely nowhere, was up.

[forex]

well I'm a pretty big tech analysis follower and the resistance line was broken on the nas and dow so I look for higher highs during the next couple of days

[Dark Horse]

The drop continues sharply. I started this thread because I planned to short tomorrow (at end of today's trading day), and wanted some feedback. Ironic. If indeed Bernanke's speech was leaked, then today's sudden drop belongs to tomorrow. Now around 200 pts in one plus hour.

[forex]

The drop continues sharply. I started this thread because I planned to short tomorrow (at end of today's trading day), and wanted some feedback. Ironic. If indeed Bernanke's speech was leaked, then today's sudden drop belongs to tomorrow. Now around 200 pts in one plus hour.

it's amazing isn't it how irrational these markets are.

[Dark Horse]

My system works well for me, but the Fed and PPT are the blind spot. That's why I'm trying to understand how they work. They're above the system and can easily manipulate it.

Wondering if market overreacted (as usual), and if it's better to short after trading hours today or before trading hours tomorrow.

[Dark Horse]

On CNBC: "Market mysteriously rolls over after soaring to new heights."

I've learned from past experience to pay attention when they use that type of wording, which they rarely do.

Again, I'm not suggesting that it is all a dark game. I'm merely suggesting that the most dangerous place in a car is the rear view mirror's blind spot. Why? Because the danger of a car in that blind spot is extremely close. Good drivers understand the blind spot. Bad drivers don't even know it's there.

[ShamsWoof10]

On CNBC: "Market mysteriously rolls over after soaring to new heights."

I've learned from past experience to pay attention when they use that type of wording, which they rarely do.

Again, I'm not suggesting that it is all a dark game. I'm merely suggesting that the most dangerous place in a car is the rear view mirror's blind spot. Why? Because the danger of a car in that blind spot is extremely close. Good drivers understand the blind spot. Bad drivers don't even know it's there.

I AM!!! The PPT is concreate and can be found even just barely looking... As most of you know it was passed/created in March of 1988 in reaction to the 87' crash the previous Oct.

Furthermore that headline tells me the market will continue to go higher... I would normally think a reversal like this would mean the beginning of a correction but I have a feeling this is not the case here... It will go higher so IMO do not short...

[Dark Horse]

I had already planned to short the market for the next two or three weeks. Clearly more risky in the present climate than going long, but a done deal. If Bernanke's speech was leaked, which is possible, the reaction today doesn't suggest a rise to me. If his speech wasn't leaked, then today's move remains a mystery. Remember that we're talking about a market that, in the past months, has shown clear signs of having surrendered its will to the Fed.

[SBR_John]

Short term I think we are over extended. Im not selling but I think we will be a little lower by years end. The Fed cutting is not normally a good sign.