[jrcaces]

I had Arizona -3.5 against St. Louis today losing by A 1/2 point Sucks more than A blowout.

[curious]

I had Arizona -3.5 against St. Louis today losing by A 1/2 point Sucks more than A blowout.

I can't speak for anyone else, but i NEVER take lines that make it so that a field goal or a touchdown or a touchdown/fieldgoal combo beats me.

I would not have taken that line -3 1/2, I would have bought the point, down to =2 1/2 so that a field goal does not beat me.

Some people here say that it is a bad idea to buy points, but I disagree IF you are talking about dangerous numbers like 3, 7, 10, 14, 20, 21, etc.

I always make sure I am off these numbers, for dogs I always buy the point (or half point) to get above them and for favs I always buy the point (of half point) to get below them.

I don't go crazy with this, for example, I wouldn't say "-25..that means two touchdowns, three fieldgoals and a safety beat me, I better buy the 1/2 point..." LOL

But the obvious spreads like 3, 7, 10, 14 are killers.

[jjgold]

If you cannot take losing you should not be gambling, all the loses even off with wins.

[JBC77]

I had Arizona -3.5 against St. Louis today losing by A 1/2 point Sucks more than A blowout.

Don't worry about it man. Next time buy the +1 or at least the + 1/2.

[biggamer3]

Got screwed with Cle and Bal

[HAPPY BOY]

oh those nasty little hooks...... they sure do sting!

[Nismo]

losing by A 1/2 point Sucks more than A blowout.

I'm not sure why so many people say this. You would rather be really wrong than slightly wrong or unlucky?

[Nismo]

Next time buy the +1 or at least the + 1/2.

Next time just don't bet it if your worried about a 1/2 point

[raiders72002]

Don't buy points, it'll kill you in the long run. There are a couple of exceptions.

[LLXC]

I think this was one of those exceptions. I usually buy down to 3 or 7.

[raiders72002]

only with very low totals.

[curious]

Don't buy points, it'll kill you in the long run. There are a couple of exceptions.

I'm not saying our are wrong, because I don't have hard data for this, only anecdotal evidence. But, I don't see how this can be true when you are talking about danger numbers like +3 or -3. Two teams are tied, it is end of the 4th quarter, the clock is running out. No matter who has the ball, all they have to do is get into field goal range, and they are going to kick a field goal. 3 point wins happen a lot.

I don't know what the % is for the number of times a game ends up decided by 3 points when the spread was -3.5 or -4, or when the spread was +2 or +2.5. I would guess it is a large %. The deciding factor would be to know how many times this spread occurs, what buying the extra 1/2 point or 1 point would cost and how many times the extra 1/2 point or 1 point makes a loss a win or a loss a push, and how many times buying the extra 1/2 to extra 1 point is just throwing money away because you lost by so much it didn't matter anyway. If anyone has these numbers, it would be interesting to see them.

I would agree that buying points just to buy points is stupid. But, to get off of the danger numbers? I just don't see why that is a bad idea. I asked Ganch a few weeks ago if he had any hard data about this, but he never answered except to say he was very busy and might not be able to get back to me.

[raiders72002]

curious- Ganch has tool which is valuable. Play with that a little and you can see if it's worth it to buy points or not.

Another thing you may want to do is go to Pinny and play with their drop down menu. If you had an account with Pinny you can still log in but can't play there if you are in the US.

After you play with it for a while I'm sure you'll have questions that Ganch can answer.

[Ganchrow]

I would agree that buying points just to buy points is stupid. But, to get off of the danger numbers? I just don't see why that is a bad idea. I asked Ganch a few weeks ago if he had any hard data about this, but he never answered except to say he was very busy and might not be able to get back to me.

Sorry I am unable to recall this incident. Was it over PM or did you post it? Are you sure this question was asked of me?

I've gone through all my old messages and the only question I have from you is whether it is better to parlay MLB run lines and totals or to simply bet them straight.

Could you perhaps refresh my memory with a link?

[EJandV]

Don't buy points, it'll kill you in the long run. There are a couple of exceptions.

What you are saying is not refering to teasers is it ? I sure hope not . why ?

If you do teasers you create an advantage for yourself , you defy reality and better your chances to go plus money for that given day .
Going plus money for the day is all normal people can ask for .

Whatever you say to debate this would be amazing , because there is nothig to say but yep .

Simple look at today : if you teased every fav +7 and put them on parlays , you would have had 11 correct selections The 2 lemons were Broncos -1 which changed to +1 late , Packers .
This is a buying pts strategy in your language ?

If you had say , forty 7 pt teasers you would have had a hedge opportunity with the Packers +4 on many parlays right , so then you would have covered yourself by taking Bears and made more money , pack parlays no good but so what you would have made money with this buy pts favs strategy sunday .
Compare this to people actually losing money for the day , bigggggg difference to say the least . Goingforwards as opposed to backwards has a double whammy effect , is big , IS A SWING THAT CAN DEFINE YOU .

I posted all over this site that the favs won every game su in week 5 this time last year and to look for th big fav day su .
I got no feedback on my forecast on thread after thread posting this forecast . You know why ? Makes ya wonder at best . People are too busy promoting themelves and even insutling .
The theme song for alot of people on this site could be its all about me . good feedback me . What is funny is I just tell the truth , I'm not mad at ya . )

[raiders72002]

EJ- I wasn't talking about teasers. But now that you mentioned it teasers can be +ev but not the way you described it.

You have to take long term samples instead of short term. GL with whatever works for you.

[seaborneq]

Don't buy points!!!! If you don't like the line move onto another game with a better or bettor line.

[seaborneq]

I had Arizona -3.5 against St. Louis today losing by A 1/2 point Sucks more than A blowout.

That will not happen too often. Plus you got in too late, the line started at 3.

[hhsilver]

What you are saying is not refering to teasers is it ? I sure hope not . why ?

If you do teasers you create an advantage for yourself , you defy reality and better your chances to go plus money for that given day .
...................

I posted all over this site that the favs won every game su in week 5 this time last year and to look for th big fav day su .
I got no feedback on my forecast on thread after thread posting this forecast . You know why ? Makes ya wonder at best . People are too busy promoting themelves and even insutling . )

Why do you think they call them teasers. We know a tease usually doesn't come through. I saw some stats once about the % of games where the teasers points do not matter, ie ,same team covers regardless of teaser points. That % was high enough that the odds you give up by using teasers make it a losing prop in the long run.
........
Maybe you got no feedback on your supposition that wk 5 is a day for favs based on a 1 day sample of wk 5 last yr because it is ridiculous to suppose that a fluke in week 5 last year increases the prob of another fluke this year.

[EJandV]

Why do you think they call them teasers. We know a tease usually doesn't come through. I saw some stats once about the % of games where the teasers points do not matter, ie ,same team covers regardless of teaser points. That % was high enough that the odds you give up by using teasers make it a losing prop in the long run.
........
Maybe you got no feedback on your supposition that wk 5 is a day for favs based on a 1 day sample of wk 5 last yr because it is ridiculous to suppose that a fluke in week 5 last year increases the prob of another fluke this year.

Adding 7 pts onto the spread in the nfl is a pretty solid way to go really . People dont have the discipline to click wagers like that like talking about it , they want the big payout and end up taking a hit because of greed .
My week 5 forecast comparing week 5 2006 to week 5 2007 went much deeper than just because it was a week 5 365 days later .
I knew it would happen pretty much .
Reasons : 10 favs were at home was one very big factor , SETTING UP A REAL ADVANATGE FOR THE FAVS .
The 4 favs that were favored on the road were great opps (beautiful matchups) for the fav to cash erasing the spread , teasing it made it plain sick , meaning good .....
Teasers are always smart , because you take a big dose of reality out of the equation and throw in your own dose , almost like stackin a deck of cards in your favor ,
you just know you are gonna kill em because in a way you are cheating adding pts to a so called accuarate spread.

Reality ? meaning the spreads are acuurate alot , so you defy logic in #s which is the pointspread and simply cash your wagers , very sweet .

Tacking 7 onto +3.5 or 3 is straight beast power move .

Keep in mind we are talking about the NFL .

[EJandV]

EJ- I wasn't talking about teasers. But now that you mentioned it teasers can be +ev but not the way you described it.

You have to take long term samples instead of short term. GL with whatever works for you.

In all theory , with me there is no theory , IT IS ALL ABOUT MAKING CERTAIN MOVES AT THE RIGHT TIME .
In effect canceling out the long term , you make right moves at the right time . for example the teasers in week 5 .
Because someone can make blind calculations using different mathmatical systems ? Those systems do in no way reflect how I make the moves or what my results happen to be for that given day (THAT I TRACK TO OCCUR BETTER THAN YOUR BEST HOUNDDOGGIE) . I make all that fly right out the window (alot of times) by pickin the right time to defy reality.
I have good timing and make the the so called long term # s about this and that fly right out the window .
It is complex maybe , you have to live it is the only thing I can say .
Conclsuion : if someone used the 7 pt teaser with the favs yesterday they would have made plenty of money and would have the Cowboys - 3 tonight to cash more parlays .......

Is all about making the right moves at the right time <<<<

[swifty]

never buy a 1/2 point on any game. can kick you and the butt most of the time.

[EJandV]

never buy a 1/2 point on any game. can kick you and the butt most of the time.

you work for the sportsbooks

[HedgeHog]

Never buy on/off the 3 in the NFL. You usually pay 20 cents per half point. So Arizona -3.5 -110 becomes Arizona -2.5 -150. Sure it would've made you a winner in this one case, but in the long run you need to win 60% at AZ -2.5 -150 just to break even. Way too tough!

[Obioha]

Never buy on/off the 3 in the NFL. You usually pay 20 cents per half point. So Arizona -3.5 -110 becomes Arizona -2.5 -150. Sure it would've made you a winner in this one case, but in the long run you need to win 60% at AZ -2.5 -150 just to break even. Way too tough!

First of all, no one bets into -110 lines anymore anyway. Second, the play is to buy only one half point. There is a reason Las Vegas sportsbooks look at you like you're crazy when you ask them if they'll let you buy 1/2 points. I just can't believe anyone would lay -3.5 on the road in the NFL; that can't be a winner over time?????

[Ganchrow]

You might want to check out my half-point calculator. It took me some 50 hours to put together and relates directly to the issue at hand.

[atakdog]

Ganch, I have two comments:

- to you: thank you for the calculator, and your other rational, mathematically sound contributions;

- to some other posters on this thread: thank you for reminding me that the public is bad at enough at this that the books can be beaten.

[HedgeHog]

Never say never!

Ganch ,if your calculator is accurate, then I take it you would buy the full point on 3.5 down to 2.5. If the line of 3.5 is fair value (enter 100 on fav and 100 dog), I get these calculations: 3 @-124.35 and 2.5@ -148.71. So if Betonline (5 cent juice, 20 cent buy off/on NFL 3) has AZ -3.5 -105, or -3 -125, or -2.5 -145, the full point buy is the best (in fact profitable). Looking at other numbers which cost 10 cents per 1/2 point, there is a significant advantage buying off/on 7 and slight edges with 10 and 14. Am I correct?