[Thremp]

Steam players always win in the long run if you can get in for the initial price. Even with a slightly worse price and a little bit of skill you'll do v v well.

[Mark Shark]

Steam players always win in the long run if you can get in for the initial price. Even with a slightly worse price and a little bit of skill you'll do v v well.

You are exactly right. That is why I win with all these books but Pinny love me because I cover my bets with them and more often lose. Trust me if you bet steam you will win way more than you lose over time.

[noyb]

You are exactly right. That is why I win with all these books but Pinny love me because I cover my bets with them and more often lose. Trust me if you bet steam you will win way more than you lose over time.

if you are so convinced this is true, why bother covering at all? doesn't make any sense

[Mark Shark]

I like guaranteed wins,not maybee's. Plus if you look back on this thread you will see that I have done rather well with this ploy, better than most do betting, so why risk money when you don't have too.

[soli]

sounds like a plan

[noyb]

I like guaranteed wins,not maybee's.

you agreed completely with someone who said steam plays are guaranteed to make you money in the long run.. that doesn't sound like a maybe, but like a sure thing

you claim pinnacle loves you, and yet you claim to be doing well. fair enough, only try to imagine the money you would make not covering your bets (your current profit + the money you are losing to pinny). If you are really that 100% sure like you claim to be steam plays are the way to make money, why not maximize profit, it's a long term surething right?

[Santo]

As I remember from the good old days of casinos, variance is not your friend. If you want a regular income, do all you can to lower variance whilst maintaining profits.

[MrX]

As I remember from the good old days of casinos, variance is not your friend.

To be fair, neither is taking -E.V. positions your friend.

[kiwi]

If you are really that 100% sure like you claim to be steam plays are the way to make money, why not maximize profit, it's a long term surething right?

I guess indeed the profit could be bigger on the long run if one doesn't play the bets as arbs.
Nevertheless there is no garuantee that this trend will last forever and therefore I feel way better to make a win with _every_ bet even if it may not be the way to make the biggest possible profit.
My way to take into account that the possibility to win with the slow books is higher is to play arbs with unbalanced dispersal of the winnings depending on the books involved in the arb.

[Santo]

To be fair, neither is taking -E.V. positions your friend.

Sure, but it can help variance. It's a playoff between variance and maximising profits, and everyone will have a different balance somewhere in the middle. Kiwi edges slightly more towards the maximising profits, where as Mark Shark edges towards low variance.

If you do things perfectly you'll have two perfectly hedged +EV positions of course.

[Thremp]

To be fair, neither is taking -E.V. positions your friend.

Kelly Criterion actually favors taking -EV hedges at points.

[Thremp]

you agreed completely with someone who said steam plays are guaranteed to make you money in the long run.. that doesn't sound like a maybe, but like a sure thing

you claim pinnacle loves you, and yet you claim to be doing well. fair enough, only try to imagine the money you would make not covering your bets (your current profit + the money you are losing to pinny). If you are really that 100% sure like you claim to be steam plays are the way to make money, why not maximize profit, it's a long term surething right?

Because maximizing profit is a almost assured way to becoming broke?

[noyb]

Nevertheless there is no garuantee that this trend will last forever and therefore I feel way better to make a win with _every_ bet even if it may not be the way to make the biggest possible profit.

i agree.. the reason why I hedge is because I only very rarely know for sure where the value is. I disagree from my own experience very much the value in case of a line move as a rule in the long term is always per se with the fast moving book (the pinnies of this world) as mark shark was implying. the truth is a lot more complicated depending on sport-specific and bookmaker-specific factors. i'm sure betting on steam can be profitable, as long as you know "which" steam to bet on, in other words if you know your sport. if you start betting anything that moves you'll be broke soon, so if you don't know what you're doing, you'd better hedge.

contrary to what i think though , this topic was pretty much suggesting just plainly betting on everything that smells like steam is a profitable long term strategy. If you really believe that (which I don't) and are sure of yourself I still don't see any reason to hedge.

"Because maximizing profit is a almost assured way to becoming broke?"

OK, obviously putting your entire bank in one EV+ bet (true short term profit maximizing behaviour) is never a good idea.

[bigboydan]

Jazz group will lower your limits.

Care to explain your experiences on this one please, because I have never had my limits cut by Jazz or ABCIslands before. In fact they actually had something on their website stating the rules for steam players (limits and stuff), and I believe it was 3 dimes a game range at the time.

I never played at Looselines before, however they are known to be more of the recreational book of the DPT group.