[forex]

Are you shitting me -7 1/2 pm pats? I am betting max on this one. I also like the over I think they will cover by at least 10.

[White_Tiger]

I'm looking @ Cin this 1 and might even bet on CIN ML as well.

[forex]

why cin? I know the pats have a lot of momo behind them and it could be a bit overrated but I still think its a lock and they won't be upset.

[Rollins08]

I think this game will be close. Cinci is due, even without Rudi.

[tullamore]

The thing with the Pats this year is that they are purposely running up the scores on teams to prove that the whole cameragate thing didn't matter. The went for it on 4th and goal form the 1 late versus the Charges, years past they would have just kicked the field goal. The only way I could play this game is the Pats, I would not call it a lock. Nothing should be a lock especially after all the upset this weekend.

[durito]

even with how good the pats have been this year, laying 7.5 on the road on monday night at a decent team is a pretty tough move.

There are a # of angles working against the Pats in this game. They may win by 30, but they are due for a letdown. They may win 13+ games this year, but they won't cover them all. Cincy should be a bit desperate too, 2-2 is a lot better than 1-3.

[SBR_John]

Betting those road favorites in the NFL this year has not been very profitable. I'd guess they are something like 6 - 15.

I think the play here is on the over. Cinci has to know they have to score everytime they get the ball or face being routed on Monday Night Football. I'd look for super aggressive play calling by the home dog and a nothing-to-lose attitude that could make them a live dog.

[WestsidePete]

Here we go again; may be wise to fade this one. Thank you for the play.

Cinci will put out everything for the win...they don't want to go 1-3...it will be closer then you think...their defense held Seattle under 20 points until that TD at the end of the game...I'm going to tease CIN +14.5 and under 61 on this one...

[jon13009]

The Pats are playing away from home in a hostile Bengal staduim, and this is a MNF game. The Pats are still burning about spygate, and Belichick wants to show how dominant his team is on MNF. Rudi Johnson is hurt, and the Bengals may be forced to pass into a waiting Patriot defense. All things point to the Patriots. But somehow my gut feels queasy about this game.

Should be an over game as well.

GL, but I would pass on this game even with NE the clear favorite.

[njschimpf]

Yeah good info but I think that the Pats will keep running up the score on teams Pats cover in this one

[forex]

the over is now 54 1/2 it could get a bit risky now if cincy offense stalls

[SBR_John]

Good post Johnny; Johnny, I think the over is a good call here. Johnny, did you get my e-mails?

Sorry Pat I dont have an email here anymore. Emails to me are handled by the company. You can send me a PM though.

[Breaker]

their defense held Seattle under 20 points until that TD at the end of the game

That's the same defense that held Cleveland to only 51 points, right?

[SBR_John]

Yea the suits are on it. Everyone is under some kind of review around here. Im just glad to see family pictures still on my desk when I walk in on Mondays. A winning week will turn it all around.

[forex]

crazy week in college and pro. hard to say whats going to happen. most times when a over looks golden it doesnt hit. such as the nyg-phils game. the pats run good def schemes, and cinn without rudi will allow more linebackers to cover the short pass. I am thinking under and pats covering here.

well lets face it the over in the nyg/phil game was way too high. The offense on both sides but particularly Phil was non-existent with injuries and rookies.

[ShamsWoof10]

I like the Under..

[WestsidePete]

That's the same defense that held Cleveland to only 51 points, right?

I know ..everything looks like an obvious over but I think both defenses will keep the total reasonable...Cinci can't give up 40-50 points a game every game.....

[jjgold]

Cincy is a very weak team, this one is very easy

Lay even 9

[MBENZ]

People that think the MNF dog philosophy will work are in for a rude awakening tonite.Pats will iniliate these guys tonight.You over players have no fear,NE may cover that themselves.

[Seattle Slew]

I agree. Cinci played well last week at Seattle and should be competitive tonight. I'd say NE, 27-24, but 7.5 is way too many points on the road.

[QUOTE=durito;361863]even with how good the pats have been this year, laying 7.5 on the road on monday night at a decent team is a pretty tough move.

[SBR_John]

People that think the MNF dog philosophy will work are in for a rude awakening tonite.Pats will iniliate these guys tonight.You over players have no fear,NE may cover that themselves.

The home underdog on MNF was 75% for about 24 years which is or was pretty strong. Since about 2000 I believe it is less than 50%.

Just one of those strange things in gambling that can't be explained. Many, many great teams fell on the road on MNF. How about the Bears loss to the gunslinging Dolphins in the year they simply destroyed the league and won every game except that one?

I still have a hard time betting against the home dog on MNF.

[betplom]

Cinci will put out everything for the win...they don't want to go 1-3...it will be closer then you think...their defense held Seattle under 20 points until that TD at the end of the game

I like NE, I'm hoping Cincy's defence plays like they did against Cleveland !!

[prop]

There is some interesting analysis in this thread. How can I go about quantifying which team is "due" - I think that could be a missing piece in my arsenal. If SBR could develop a team is due and team is hot or cold calculator this would be very helpful

In all seriousness. I think this line is to high

[raiders72002]

Tease NE with Tenn next week.

[koko]

There is some interesting analysis in this thread. How can I go about quantifying which team is "due" - I think that could be a missing piece in my arsenal. If SBR could develop a team is due and team is hot or cold calculator this would be very helpful

Post of the day!!!!

FWIW, I teased this game to -2.5 and round robined (2 and 3 teamers) with the following 9/30 games: ATL, NYG, SF, Minn, and Det.

So, I am looking for Pats -2.5 to bring home the money

[forex]

I think that many of you all are waiting for the one game that will bring the dog barking and I can tell you this is not the one. Pats will take this one. The big game thats going down is going to be one with the colts

[durito]

There is some interesting analysis in this thread. How can I go about quantifying which team is "due" - I think that could be a missing piece in my arsenal. If SBR could develop a team is due and team is hot or cold calculator this would be very helpful

In all seriousness. I think this line is to high

I quantified it with a series of angles:

1) Teams that start 3-0 su and ats are 6-18 on the road as a favorite or small dog in week 4 (1-1 yesterday with pitt losing and green bay winning

2) an angle LT brought up here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...460-plays.html

That plays against road favorites off a 11+pt win at home.


It's not a game I'm interested in playing, but those angles get me leaning toward New England being due for a letdown.

[pokernut9999]

Pats are 9-2 last 11 road games ATS