[BigBollocks]

These two have such different approaches to their math I figured it'd make for an interesting question.

On one hand, you have Ganch who approaches things from a very formal mathematical background. He has had coursework in statistical processes at the Master's level, and can easily chart out derivations, regression analysis, variance, etc.

On the flip side, you have JJGold with little formal education, but a lifetime of surviving in the gaming world through practical experience and a general idea of where the number should be. He tends to utilize "feel" and an approximation of where the number should be, and then decides to make a play or sit the game out based upon perceived value.

These two have extremely differing styles which can both be very effective in beating the book. Do you tend to trust and prefer JJ or Ganch when it comes down to the pure mathematical side of handicapping? Cheers...

[jjgold]

Ganch is better at numbers

I am better at the angles

[raiders72002]

Coach is better for real life gambling numbers. It's like a poker player that knows pot odds but also has a feel for the game.

Ganch is the best math guy on any of the forums.

[pico]

You'd be surprised how many at the poker tables can't calculate pot odds on the spot. They only start doing the math after they are forced into a corner to make a decision for their chips (tournaments). Cash games may be worse. So many players go with the "the pot looks big so I'm going to call" approach instead of doing simple addition and division. LOL.

That's a good thing though, I've won several side bets on the pot size of large pots in cash games when everybody is way off base.

this is what i do. get loaded, and say "**** it, i am all in"...i only do it at the 1-2 tables, because 100 bucks is a big deal to those little kids

poker, imo, is way more work than sports betting because you have to constantly think...sometimes it gets really boring when you have bad hands and you don't have enough credibility to bluff yet. i only play for entertainment purpose...making money off poker is just way too much work.

[atakdog]

I think the title shouldn't have been about best mathematician, but best capper -- at math, obviously there's no question.

Poker isn't math, at least not in person. I have a math degree, but when I played poker (that was how I paid the mortgage -- sole source of income for over a year) I never did any calculations. Pot odds by feel, which may not be best but works fine when you know what your opponent holds -- which I usually did. (This was limit poker only -- more is required in no limit games.)

[jjgold]

Poker requires about 9th grade math only

[jon13009]

Yes, as a small time poker player, there is an amount of work required to play poker, but it is far more enjoyable than blackjack or even craps. Blackjack gave me a headache trying to look for a 4 deck (or less) table and count the cards. Craps is pure luck and too much pressure when calculating and pushing the odds.

Besides, you can relax at a live limit (1/2) table for a couple of hours and not lose much, and the people there seem to be friendlier than the no-limit games.

Knowing the odds, and how to play them are very different in a cash limit, cash no-limit, or even a heads-up game - and tournament no-limit poker is a character of its own. What goes on in other types of poker (stud, omaha...) is way beyond me.

[jon13009]

I think the answer is somewhere in between pure stats and having a good feel for the game. Some stats can not be put into numbers and it is necessary to figure out what rivalries, home field advantage and injuries mean to the outcome of a game. If you could merge the two, that would be the ideal.

[Rollins08]

Long term looking, the more stats you have the better off you are. I think thats clear.

[jon13009]

True, but the real difficulty is figuring out how to beat the spread.

I think the spread is there to simply divide the bettors into equal groups. How the spread is calculated is something I wish someone could explain. However, I think the spread was correct in predicting the outright winner around only 60% of the time last NFL season.

-source: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/...ts.php?year=06

Finally, A coach may try things like an onside kick that goes bad, sit on the ball, or even injuries during a game can throw the spread out of wack. We all know how missing a stupid extra point or going for 2 points killed that sure bet, and that is where having a feel for coaching philosophies, inter-team disputes, and teams with momentum come into play. It makes the NFL (and any sports bet) a bit more riskier than playing poker (and holding the nuts while figuring out how to extract the most amout of money from the table).

[pokernut9999]

At least 80% of spreads come from the power ratings. The few remaining games use injuries and other variances to round out the spread.

[atakdog]

Sure, you can win without doing the calculations, but that's a big hole in one's game and by doing the math and proper calculators, in the long run, you put yourself in more +EV situations.

When playing against good players, I agree. And when playing against very, very bad players -- the kind who play low limit, no fold 'em hold 'em -- again I agree, but they didn't play in the games I played. But against moderately bad players, the math is irrelevant in most cases -- what matters is what your opponent holds, and what he thinks about what you hold.

(Doing calculations might raise your EV on a per-hand basis, but if it distracts you from your main job, reading other players, or if it tires you out and shortens your session, it's not a good tradeoff.)

The first, and arguably only, rule of poker: don't play against someone who's better than you are.

And again, back on topic: yes, it's Ganch.

[jon13009]

Regarding the origins of the Line, someone indicated that a gambling consultant in Las Vegas - LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) - is where the line is set:

http://www.winnersedgeonline.com/point-spread-made.html

Perhaps not important, but FYI.