Originally Posted by
Justin7
Offshore lean:
You are thinking about betting on the Minnesota/Kansas City game. Your local bookie has KC -2.5. In Vegas, everyone is at -2 or -2.5. Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101. They are begging people to bet the +3. Pinnacle's "lean" suggests that smart players are betting on K.C., since their price for KC is "off market" compared to Vegas.
Pinny's lean used to be golden - you used to be able to play all of Veags when a game like this was off that much. It is nowhere near as strong as the past; now you have to look at the Oly/Cris lean as well. Oly is at -2.5 -120/+2.5 +100, while Cris is at +3 -125/-3 +105. These numbers together suggest that the "offshore lean" likes K.C. If you can get KC -2 -110 (which is available at the Harrahs/Caesars books in Vegas), it is scalpable.
In the past, guys made a fortune betting any game that was 5 cents off of Pinnacle's no-juice line. you can still do well, but you need to look at the broader offshore markets to get an accurate read.