[pico]

these are old topics, but i just want to organize all my questions into one thread and hopefully get couple of useful answers.

1) pinnacle lean is well known. how often do you see the greek lean? if the greek lean do exist, does the greek lean always goes the same way as pinnacle lean?

2) if the greek lean do exist, (from your experience) does the greek lean happens before or after the pinnacle lean? my guess is after? or it is completely random?

3) do we all agree that pinnacle and the greek has the highest limits among all th online books. does that mean pinnacle bookie has the biggest bankroll and the greek bookie has the 2nd biggest bankroll?

4) is there such things as wsex lean or the cris/bookmaker lean? how does these two book's working capital (bankroll) compare to the greek/pinnacle?

5) does syndiacted play usually mean a inside information? such as a fixed game, or a injury report not known to the public?

[Justin7]

I take the average of Cris, Pinny and Oly. The offshore market is sharper than Vegas in general.

[biggamer3]

Sorry for sounding like an idiot, but what the hell does "a Pinny Lean" actually mean?

[raiders72002]

Pinny likes to gamble on the big sports. They take a position wanting action on one side. Their action isn't balanced.

When the have the best line out of all the books it's called a Pinny lean. It's the same logic with the other books.

[raiders72002]

5) does syndiacted play usually mean a inside information? such as a fixed game, or a injury report not known to the public?

for the most part it's just a group of professional bettors. They bet some big bucks.

[Justin7]

Offshore lean:

You are thinking about betting on the Minnesota/Kansas City game. Your local bookie has KC -2.5. In Vegas, everyone is at -2 or -2.5. Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101. They are begging people to bet the +3. Pinnacle's "lean" suggests that smart players are betting on K.C., since their price for KC is "off market" compared to Vegas.

Pinny's lean used to be golden - you used to be able to play all of Veags when a game like this was off that much. It is nowhere near as strong as the past; now you have to look at the Oly/Cris lean as well. Oly is at -2.5 -120/+2.5 +100, while Cris is at +3 -125/-3 +105. These numbers together suggest that the "offshore lean" likes K.C. If you can get KC -2 -110 (which is available at the Harrahs/Caesars books in Vegas), it is scalpable.

In the past, guys made a fortune betting any game that was 5 cents off of Pinnacle's no-juice line. you can still do well, but you need to look at the broader offshore markets to get an accurate read.

[biggamer3]

So if i am understating correct, When Pinny made there lean, you would bet with another book and guarantee a small profit correct?

[fearless]

The MGM grand lean is the best, imho. It's the most accurate on a daily basis. Of course, I'm only talking about the NBA because that's the only sport I know well.

[ion]

Originally Posted by raiders72002

Pinny likes to gamble on the big sports. They take a position wanting action on one side. Their action isn't balanced.

When the have the best line out of all the books it's called a Pinny lean. It's the same logic with the other books.

Actually, the Pinny lean is on a team (or outcome) on which Pinnacle offers the worst line. The reason is Pinnacle has a lean on a team and doesn't want action on it, thus they offer the best line on the opposing team.

From what I observed, Pinny lean worked well for NFL 06, but worked bad for NFL 05. Overall, although it's far from being a guarantee, I would say it works well.

[pico]

Originally Posted by raiders72002

for the most part it's just a group of professional bettors. They bet some big bucks.

that is what i am intrigued about, raider. if a bunch of big buck professional bettors are all betting on certain team, then there must be something going on. either they know something that we squares don't or they paid off one of the players that can shave points.

i don't know if you all still remmeber, BCS championship bowl when USC played Texas. the day of the game, shitload of money went to texas. I rememeber the money line for texas went from +500 to +350 right before the game start. (on pinnacle) i would say that defintely a syndicated play on Texas ML. we all know how the game ended...vince young became a legend.

[pico]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Offshore lean:

You are thinking about betting on the Minnesota/Kansas City game. Your local bookie has KC -2.5. In Vegas, everyone is at -2 or -2.5. Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101. They are begging people to bet the +3. Pinnacle's "lean" suggests that smart players are betting on K.C., since their price for KC is "off market" compared to Vegas.

Pinny's lean used to be golden - you used to be able to play all of Veags when a game like this was off that much. It is nowhere near as strong as the past; now you have to look at the Oly/Cris lean as well. Oly is at -2.5 -120/+2.5 +100, while Cris is at +3 -125/-3 +105. These numbers together suggest that the "offshore lean" likes K.C. If you can get KC -2 -110 (which is available at the Harrahs/Caesars books in Vegas), it is scalpable.

In the past, guys made a fortune betting any game that was 5 cents off of Pinnacle's no-juice line. you can still do well, but you need to look at the broader offshore markets to get an accurate read.

justin, which book do you think has more big bettors? greek or cris? i have not paid much attention to cris at all, but if cris lean do exist, i'll start pay attention to them from now on.

[pico]

Originally Posted by raiders72002

Pinny likes to gamble on the big sports. They take a position wanting action on one side. Their action isn't balanced.

When the have the best line out of all the books it's called a Pinny lean. It's the same logic with the other books.

i do beleive pinnacle have unbalanced action because there are so many events listed there is no way they can get even action on all of them. imo, it is kind hard to tell when pinnacle is trying to take risks on certain side.

however, sometimes pinnacle plays mind tricks on you. i see these unknown soccers games (two unknown teams who never played before both has similar win-loss records), where the line opened at -105 pk, then moved to -120 pk, then -135 pk, then +103 -1/2, then -120 -1/2. and so on, the line would just keep move and move, even though the line at the greek stays the same at -120 pk the whole time. i think pinnacle knows sometimes people like to follow the crowd, so they would purposely try to move the line so people would try to get their money in before the line moves more. it is like bluffing in texas holdem. or am i being paranoid here?

[pico]

bit off the topic here.

believe it or not, i saw a 5dimes lean once. when i tried to bet on a soccer game. right before i hit confirm, the line moved from -118 to -199. i got my wager in at the greek instead and won. i am not making this up. i posted a thread about this like last week.

[rm18]

Originally Posted by picoman

that is what i am intrigued about, raider. if a bunch of big buck professional bettors are all betting on certain team, then there must be something going on. either they know something that we squares don't or they paid off one of the players that can shave points.

i don't know if you all still remmeber, BCS championship bowl when USC played Texas. the day of the game, shitload of money went to texas. I rememeber the money line for texas went from +500 to +350 right before the game start. (on pinnacle) i would say that defintely a syndicated play on Texas ML. we all know how the game ended...vince young became a legend.

I am pretty sure the move was more like from +260 to +200, Texas was a 7 point dog about

[The HG]

Originally Posted by picoman

that is what i am intrigued about, raider. if a bunch of big buck professional bettors are all betting on certain team, then there must be something going on. either they know something that we squares don't or they paid off one of the players that can shave points.

i don't know if you all still remmeber, BCS championship bowl when USC played Texas. the day of the game, shitload of money went to texas. I rememeber the money line for texas went from +500 to +350 right before the game start. (on pinnacle) i would say that defintely a syndicated play on Texas ML. we all know how the game ended...vince young became a legend.

Yes once in a while Pinnacle movements definitely indicate clear and obvious inside info. The most clear-cut example in my memory happened 2 or 3 years ago, with the total of a college hoops game in the OVC (big shocker), I forget exactly which two teams were involved at the moment. But the over was being bet insanely, Pinny moved the ML on it up to -200 every few seconds, and then it would bounce back down to like -178 and then shoot back up again, so someone was sure enough that the over would win that they were repeatedly betting the max at huge fave odds. This went on for minutes on end, I don't remember exactly how long. Needless to say, yes that was inside info, I myself took a little on the over at -240 or whatever it was, and the over won relatively easily.

[Arilou]

Picoman, if the line moves that far and Greek stays put there' s no reason not to shoot for the middle and arb the two books. Most American books deal wide soccer lines and get little action, so chances are Greek just hasn't taken a bet.

[jjgold]

Onshore market has become sharper to a degree because more big money is being bet in Vegas again

[pico]

Originally Posted by jjgold

Onshore market has become sharper to a degree because more big money is being bet in Vegas again

which casinos do you recommend jj? i like suncoast and palms.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Pinnacle is at +3 +105, which is a no-juice line of +3 +101.

What the hell ... you got a Mariachi band ringing in your ears or something?

Given a market of +105/-113, the no-juice line would be about ±108.76.

For all markets quoted at positive juice (i.e., every market you'll find at a commercial book maker) the no-juice line for a given outcome will of course necessarily be greater than the corresponding juiced line.

[Masu485]

this intrigues me, as i always suspected there were things to learn simply by watching line mvements.

i also have noticed that in rare cases when pinny's line is worse than either cris or greek, that that team wins, especially in football. tonight it seems like it's that way for the utah st/boise game, so we'll see.

also, i've noticed that games are very shifty when pinny has a spread which is totally off of cris or greek (ex: last week's pats/colts game). everywhere had +/- 3 and pinny had it at +/- 1. and that game ended shifty as hell.

is it possible to gain knowledge just by scanning the line mvt board?

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by Masu485

also, i've noticed that games are very shifty when pinny has a spread which is totally off of cris or greek (ex: last week's pats/colts game). everywhere had +/- 3 and pinny had it at +/- 1. and that game ended shifty as hell.

This is just "teaser defense" usually. If the fair line was +2.5 (or +3 -130 that Greek had), Pinny offers +1 +108 or something similar to stop the Patriot teasers, or make them more expensive.

[durito]

look at the odds, pinny's line was the same

[Masu485]

ah, that makes sense. i used to think the bookmakers were scheming bastards with all these different tricks and mind games and game fixing etc...

but over time, i've come to see them as scared and insecure, and afraid of those bettors who know what they're doing.