[raiders72002]

Looks like we had a good day Sat so lets try it again. No BS please.

Sun thread starter.

[raiders72002]

KC +3: Wait on this, you may get 3.5

Cle +4.5: wait to see if a 6 comes around.

GB +3: wait for the 3.5, you'll get it

Atl +3

TB +6

Bears +6.5, outside chance of some 7s popping up

Giants +6 : Wait, you may get 7, guys will be chasing because it's a night game.

Oak -2.5

[bigboydan]

Looks like we had a good day Sat so lets try it again. No BS please.

Sun thread starter.

All I ask is this stays strictly business like in these threads. Absolutely no flaming by anyone !! If that happens it will be diverted instantly with no excuses or explanations either !!

[raiders72002]

All I ask is this stays strictly business like in these threads. Absolutely no flaming! If that happens it will be diverted instantly with no excuses or explanations either !!

good rules

[bigboydan]

good rules

Don't go starting a fight with Taco or vice versa either in these threads, because that will be diverted period!

IT'S A NO NONSENSE THREAD PERIOD !!

[ritehook]

I always pass the first week of NFL.

Usually 2nd week too, unless a good angle I've used for years kicks in, then maybe one play

[onlooker]

I always pass the first week of NFL.

Usually 2nd week too, unless a good angle I've used for years kicks in, then maybe one play

Same here.

[bigboydan]

I always pass the first week of NFL.

Usually 2nd week too, unless a good angle I've used for years kicks in, then maybe one play

If you have a good trend or a good angle please feel free to post it sir.

If you find a capper that is really struggling with his wagering, please feel free to post his plays. You can never have enough info when your trying to turn a profit.

[20Four7]

I always pass the first week of NFL.

Usually 2nd week too, unless a good angle I've used for years kicks in, then maybe one play

For years people told me I was passing up profit opportunties by doing that. Glad to know I'm not alone.

[raiders72002]

I'm just the opposite. I've always found the first two weeks the easiest to beat. After that the lines tighten up. That's why I never recommend teasers until week 3.

[swifty]

The Game. Edge: Falcons.
Injuries: FALCONS: OUT: QB Michael Vick. QUESTIONABLE: DT Rod Coleman, S Chris Crocker. VIKINGS: QUESTIONABLE: WR Bobby Wade, DE Darrion Scott, LB E.J. Henderson, LB Vinny Ciurciu, S Tank Williams, S Mike Doss.

My Joey Harrington Theorem, one last time for anyone who hasn't heard it yet: Every year, Harrington starts playing well under the radar. He then has an amazing game, usually on national television (the Thanksgiving game last season), and everyone looks at that performance and the rest of his seasonal numbers, and boasts how they knew Harrington was eventually going to come around. From then on, Harrington throws interceptions and incompletions like a madman. Never fails.

Whenever you hear anyone talking about the Falcons, all that ever comes up in the conversation is how their season is doomed because Michael Vick is heading to prison. That could be true, but I don't expect Atlanta to just lie down and let teams like Minnesota walk all over them. The Falcons have a huge chip on their shoulder, and I expect them to prove that they're more than just a one-man show Sunday afternoon.

Minnesota's defense was solid against the run last year, but it had two major weaknesses: its secondary and inability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. As I mentioned, Harrington usually starts off well, so look for him to continuously find Alge Crumpler and the rest of his receivers downfield amid a soft pass rush all afternoon. The Falcons won't have much luck running the ball with Jerious Norwood or Warrick Dunn, so they'll need to set up the ground attack with the pass. Bobby Petrino is a competent coach - or at least he was at Louisville - so I expect him to realize that, unlike a few other clipboard-holders in this league (cough, Herm Edwards and Brian Billick, sneeze).

With all of this Vick talk, people forget how solid Atlanta's defense is. The team was ranked eighth against the run last season and didn't suffer any significant losses to the front this offseason, meaning Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could find it difficult to get things moving via the ground attack. If that happens, Minnesota will be behind the eight ball, as Tarvaris Jackson isn't exactly the most renowned passer in the league. Jackson looked solid in the preseason, but that was against vanilla blitz schemes and coverages. Things will be a lot more difficult for him and his horrendous receiving corps on Sunday. Atlanta managed only 36 sacks last year, but I expect that total to increase with rookie defensive end Jamaal Anderson already penciled into the starting lineup.

This is one of those games where the winning team says, "No one gave us any respect! No one thought we were going to win! We had to prove everyone wrong!" With nearly 80 percent of the public betting the Vikings, that's clearly the case with Atlanta. As you may expect, I'm going against the grain. The Falcons will win. I'm a believer.

Thursday Note: After discussing this game with a few people, I've decided to make the Falcons a Double Money Pick.


The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
The Falcons will be playing with chips on their shoulders. The media is completely nullifying their playoff chances because Michael Vick is gone. I think Atlanta wants to prove that it's more than just a one-man team.


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
No one is going to bet on the Falcons with Joey Harrington at quarterback.


Percentage of money on Minnesota: 70% (21,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
ESPN Kiss of Death: Teams that receive eight of nine votes from the ESPN Experts were 17-36 ATS in 2006.
Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.
Opening Total: 36.
Weather: Dome.


Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: Joey Harrington, Alge Crumpler, Falcons Defense.
Sit Em: Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood, Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor.


Prediction: Falcons 24, Vikings 16
Falcons +3 (5 Units - Double Money Pick)
Over 35.5 (1 Unit)

[raiders72002]

Good stuff swifty. GL today

[pokernut9999]

2 trends here

New England is 13-2 ATS on road when total is betweem 35.5 -42.

Atl 9-2 ATS as road dog 3 points or less

[durito]

Buffalo +3
NYJ +6.5
Jax -6.5

[moneyplays]

Ne -6 -106
Jax -6.5
Pit -4
STL -1

[pico]

i am taking the jets.

i do have a questions though. why would you take +6.5 rather than +6? you get better odds at +6, and the likelyhood of landing on patriots winning by 2 field goals is pretty slim. i would actually try to get it at +4.5 if i can.

[raiders72002]

pico- You may want to wait on that game too. You may see a 7.

As far as your question goes you may want to play with ganch's 1/2 point calculator to see what the value is at each number.

Then go to Pinnacle and use their drop down menu. At Pinny you could get:

+6 -102 or
+4.5 +112

But I can't play at Pinny. I jsut look at their odds.

[raiders72002]

I just want to add rules from a poster's perspective to add to Dan's rules.

1. There are no dumb questions.

2. Do not reply to any flames.

3.Do not brag. If you go 3-0 great. But let someone else congratulate you.

4. There are pros, books and people that move money on these forums. I will not mention names. Keep these threads clean and they will come.

[onlooker]

Follow these rules, and you will enjoy these threads.

[applepicks]

Jax -6.5
Pit -4
STL -1

These are the only favorites I'll be playing today. Add in the Lions at +2.5 and you have my full card. While St Louis isn't the better team here, at home they'll be able to cover. The Lions are the second place team in the norris divison. They "shock and awe" several teams this year.

[EBone]

Want to play:

Atl +3
NYJ +6.5
TB +6


Will wait for updates from raiders today on line moves. Great stuff from swifty above on the Falcons game.


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[old threads]

My 2 units for this week got split up like this:
1/2 unit on SD -5.5 -115
1/2 unit on ATL +3 -105
1/2 unit on ATL-MIN over 35.5 even
1/2 unit on NE-NYJ over 40.5 -110

[jjgold]

I like Buffalo a little, Rams, Detroit +2.5

[raiders72002]

I don't want to break any copy rite laws so delete if it is but rumor is Dr Bob likes


Plays:
Jacksonville
NY Jets

Strong Opinions:
Tampa Bay
Oakland

[raiders72002]

SBRJohn : Get in this thread

[raiders72002]

may get some T-Storms in Buf

rain in Cle, no wind, not sure how heavy

If you live in a city give us a weather report

[raiders72002]

Hilton Contest Picks

This Week’s top 5 picks

1T) Houston -3 (91 picked)

1T) Pittsburgh -4 (91 picked)

1T) St Louis -1 (91 Picked)

2) Philadelphia -3 (87 picked)

3) Seattle -6 (84 picked)

[raiders72002]

I'm changing my KC pick and I'm taking Hou -3. I think Schaub has a huge day.

There are still some -3 -110 out there.

[raiders72002]

Pouring rain in Cle. The total should move down. I'm not seeing any 37s but if you do I'd take it.

[raiders72002]

Pitt and Sea are huge public plays.

[pokernut9999]

Detroit at Oakland

The old saying goes when two crappy teams play each other ,you do one of 2 things. Pass on he game or take the points. Example Temple vs Buffalo yesterday.

[EBone]

Put one unit down on Tampa +210. This is definitely a contrarian play as all indications say that the Seattle line should be jumping up with the uneven action that is happening. Sports Insights is reporting, as of 10 AM Central, a 6:1 favoring of Seattle and yet the line has remained the same or gone down in most places.

Tampa Bay +210 ML (1 unit to win 2.1 units)


E

[raiders72002]

I just heard that the good Dr is playing Jax. He moved the line.

[raiders72002]

NFL Network says rain has stopped in Cle.