[imgv94]

or had for most of us Americans..

I miss that thing bad..

Any reason why another book can't utilize a drop down box?

[Scorpion]

Their bookmakers are not sharp enough

[LVHerbie]

the drop down menus were sucker bets anyhow... I'm suprised no other bookmaker is smart enough to take advantage of the squares for a few extra points of juice...

[jjgold]

Originally Posted by LVHerbie

the drop down menus were sucker bets anyhow... I'm suprised no other bookmaker is smart enough to take advantage of the squares for a few extra points of juice...

100% true

Bets look enticing but only there to make money for book

[oldmanTED]

I loved the dropdown.It helped me tremendously.And the large limits they had.Thats what I missed the most.5 dimes 10 dimes never a blink.

[TheOffshoreGambler]

Yeah those drop down boxes were great. I miss them too..

[Ganchrow]

You can use my half-point calculator to calculate marginal point values for football and basketball spreads and totals and baseball totals.

All comments, questions, and criticisms welcome:



Note that you can use the push probability estimates embedded in the calculator or can enter your own.

Currently supports:
NBA, NFL, NCAA BB, and NCAA FB Sides and Totals
MLB Totals

[aircoryell]

Originally Posted by LVHerbie

the drop down menus were sucker bets anyhow... I'm suprised no other bookmaker is smart enough to take advantage of the squares for a few extra points of juice...

true...the sharp bettor used the drop down to sell points

[slash]

I used the drop down box to get an idea of the value of half a point...

[rjp]

Most books don't like the risk and aren't able to price them properly.

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by aircoryell

true...the sharp bettor used the drop down to sell points

This IMO is exactly right... I like to sell points... Sucker bet to buy but not sell... To give you an idea... Royal "HAD" buy and sell but now only have buy... A few books did selling and now only Pinny. does... I wonder why that is...?

[aircoryell]

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

This IMO is exactly right... I like to sell points... Sucker bet to buy but not sell... To give you an idea... Royal "HAD" buy and sell but now only have buy... A few books did selling and now only Pinny. does... I wonder why that is...?

well we know the games fall right on the number only around 5% of the time.

so, if the line on a total is say 36.5 -105 and you like the under, why not sell it down to 36 +100. that nickel you save in juice really adds up over time.

in the 5% chance that it lands on 36, you get a push instead of a win.

[ShamsWoof10]

Originally Posted by aircoryell

well we know the games fall right on the number only around 5% of the time.

so, if the line on a total is say 36.5 -105 and you like the under, why not sell it down to 36 +100. that nickel you save in juice really adds up over time.

in the 5% chance that it lands on 36, you get a push instead of a win.

EXACTLY!!!!!!! Over time if you just go 50% you are even or ahead if you get + anything... Without selling points and getting better odds you must be BETTER then 55% at -105 to win...

[LT Profits]

While not a dropdown box por se, 5 Dimes has practically the same thing to a point with all of their alternate lines. Keep an eye on this once NFL regular season starts.

[RickySteve]

What a hideous thread.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by aircoryell

well we know the games fall right on the number only around 5% of the time.

so, if the line on a total is say 36.5 -105 and you like the under, why not sell it down to 36 +100. that nickel you save in juice really adds up over time.

in the 5% chance that it lands on 36, you get a push instead of a win.

Originally Posted by ShamsWoof10

EXACTLY!!!!!!! Over time if you just go 50% you are even or ahead if you get + anything... Without selling points and getting better odds you must be BETTER then 55% at -105 to win...

Actually if plug this info into my calculator (NFL o36.½ -105 / u36½ -105, 5% probability of game landing on 36), you'll see that the fair (zero-added premium) price of u36 would be +106.08. u36 At +100, you'd be paying 3.242% in premium (i.e., extra vig) on top of the 2.381% vig already being charged. That's total EV for the player of -5.263%, which is the equivalent of about a -111.76 lin set.

So as great as the bet might sound, the half-point calculator takes a fraction of seconds to tell you that (assuming a 5% push probability), the bet is best avoided.

[gridironguy]

Originally Posted by aircoryell

well we know the games fall right on the number only around 5% of the time.

In basketball sides (NBA or NCAAB), more like 10%.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by gridironguy

In basketball sides (NBA or NCAAB), more like 10%.

Based on covers.com data (the data used to populate the calculator probabilities), 10% is way too high a figure.

[LT Profits]

RickySteve,

What is so hideous about selling off of non-key numbers in football and just about any number in basketball to get to + odds? That sounds like a sound strategy to me.

[durito]

Originally Posted by LT Profits

RickySteve,

What is so hideous about selling off of non-key numbers in football and just about any number in basketball to get to + odds? That sounds like a sound strategy to me.

I don't understand how?

If you are improving your odds, fine.

But, as Ganchrow's excellent tool will show you, you rarely are. Pinnacle lets you sell pts because they offer worse odds.

[LT Profits]

Actually in football you often are if selling inside the 4 to 5.5 and 8 to 9.5 ranges. Also if I could sell off of a fraction (6.5) to a flat line (6) at + odds, I could live with the occasional push.