[Clip Joint]

WEEK #3 WARNING

I started a tracking thread and thought I would begin a new one as we get ready to head into Week #3. Week #3 has been the worst week for this system the last 2 years. ML dogs went 3-13 in Week #3 last year and 5-10 the year before. Each of those were the worst weeks for the entire pre season each of the last 2 years.

I play every moneyline dog in the preseason blindly without handicapping the games. This system has always built me a nice bankroll heading into the regular season.

You can get a better line and my actual units are slightly higher than this as I am just using the closing Don Best CRIS line for the tracking in these threads.

We have 2 more moneyline dogs this week before heading into the dreaded 3rd week, so let's cash:

ST. LOUIS +180
DALLAS +140
(Both lines are the current lines as of this post. I will wait until closer to kick off to try and get a better line on both games. I always use the closing line at CRIS on Don Best for the tracking record)


All plays are for 1 unit
Last night: 7-3 +9.55 units
YTD: 18-13 +14.2 units

Cleveland +275 (Won) +2.75 units
Green Bay +250 (Lost) -1 unit
Jacksonville +140 (Won) +1.4 units
Miami +150 (Lost) -1 unit
Houston +160 (Won) +1.6 units
NY Giants +145 (Won) +1.45 units
Philadelphia +140 (Won) +1.4 units
Chicago +230 (Won) +2.3 units
Arizona +170 (Won) +1.7 units
San Francisco +275 (Lost) -1 unit

[Mudcat]

Good stuff.

I'm not convinced those poor number for week 3 for the last 2 years are an actual trend. Could just be an aberration.

Could be a trend though. There could be tangible changes in the mindsets of both coaches and linesmakers that become more prevalent in week 3.

I'll keep watching.

[Clip Joint]

I don't have the stats on this computer for 3 years ago but I am 99% sure Week 3 then also lost. I think it is because this is the week when starters start playing a lot more and the value on the dogs just isn't there. The final week odds makers make another adjustment towards the favorites and we see some very juicy dog lines.

[Mudcat]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. It makes sense.

But sometimes we think of reasons to rationalize these short-term trends (when I say short-term, I mean less than 100 samples). If you had said week 3 had been really great the last couple years, I bet I could think of a rationalization to explain that too.

It's like my MLB alt. runlines. The last two Junes have been unbelievably awesome. I could come up with a bunch of reasons for it but the truth is, it's probably just an aberration and over the next 10 years it will more-or-less even out.

Who knows? In your position I would definitely be feeling cautious about the next week of NFLX.

The big question is, what are you going to do with your wagers? Lay off? Reduce? Keep playing?

Enquiring minds want to know.

[Clip Joint]

Yeah that's what I was thinking. It makes sense.

But sometimes we think of reasons to rationalize these short-term trends (when I say short-term, I mean less than 100 samples). If you had said week 3 had been really great the last couple years, I bet I could think of a rationalization to explain that too.

My thoughts exactly...I am not sold on the system entirely yet but I figured I would post the results for everyone to draw their own conclusions and track it with me. I have played every game in the pre season with this system for the last 3 years. It has been a nice way to ease into the grind of the regular season when I become very selective and bet much larger amounts on a select few games. It is a fun way to check scores and have some action down without having to spend a single minute handicapping.

All of that changes once the regular season rolls around as I spend a lot of time handicapping and being very selective on the games I play. The bet amounts go up a ton and the season becomes a job instead of fun. LOL

As for your question...I am up over $15,000 on this so far in the pre season so I think I am going to ride it out and test the waters again in Week 3 this year. I would kick myself if I didn't press the winners since I am playing with "book money". I'll throw a dime a game out there and see what happens. The beauty of playing with + moneylines is you never really take too big of a hit. The worst hit ever on this system was last year during Week 3 when it went 3-13. Even if that disaster happened again this year, it wouldn't come close to erasingn the profits we have already seen. It would only take about half.

Good luck!

[Mudcat]

I've said it before but I have been thoroughly interested by your reports on this system. Basically you've been doing my work for me. I am constantly doing WHAT IF I BET such-and-such? tests like this.

It sounds like this is a little side thing for you. For me, it is fundamental to my business.

I have thought many times of testing out some theories on pre-season but I just have too many ideas and that one has never risen to the top of the list. But maybe I need to put a higher priority on it.

Perhaps I'll run a similar test on NBA this coming pre-season.

[jjgold]

this year they should do better, there is no way Dogs in pre season can duplicate what they did last year in week 3

[bigboydan]

i'm more curious on how the dogs will do money line wise this year during the regular season.

[Mudcat]

i'm more curious on how the dogs will do money line wise this year during the regular season.

I can tell you that betting dogs of over +200 during the NFL regular season (from week 3 on) is a year-in, year-out money-maker. (Shopping for the best line is very important.)

[Clip Joint]

I can tell you that betting dogs of over +200 during the NFL regular season (from week 3 on) is a year-in, year-out money-maker. (Shopping for the best line is very important.)

Mudcat...I think you will find that to be true in almost every major pro sport (baseball, basketball, football, hockey). Have you found that to be the case as well?

[Mudcat]

Mudcat...I think you will find that to be true in almost every major pro sport (baseball, basketball, football, hockey). Have you found that to be the case as well?

For the most part, yes.

I find baseball to be more situational. Like it works better for the American League than the National. (A better general statement might be it works better on games with a higher OVER/UNDER). Also for MLB I have observed very long periods where it doesn't work well for big HOME dogs for some reason.

Sometimes I find there are better cut-off points than +200. Like my MLB alternate runlines, I bet when they are over +250 rather than +200 (because my research shows that to be more profitable).

You definitely don't want to try the +200 rule with NCAAB (although you didn't mention NCAAB in your question). I did some research on it last year and I was very glad I ran the test first instead of just putting real money on it.

[Clip Joint]

For the most part, yes.

I find baseball to be more situational. Like it works better for the American League than the National. (A better general statement might be it works better on games with a higher OVER/UNDER). Also for MLB I have observed very long periods where it doesn't work well for big HOME dogs for some reason.

Sometimes I find there are better cut-off points than +200. Like my MLB alternate runlines, I bet when they are over +250 rather than +200 (because my research shows that to be more profitable).

You definitely don't want to try the +200 rule with NCAAB (although you didn't mention NCAAB in your question). I did some research on it last year and I was very glad I ran the test first instead of just putting real money on it.

Yea...I was only talking about pro sports. College basketball and baseball (College World Series) are very profitable betting the favorites. I think it is because there is a big talent gap between top teams and average teams at the college level and that is not the case at the pro level. They are all pro caliber athletes and can beat another team on any given day. That is not the case in college.

[Clip Joint]

All plays are for 1 unit
Today: 1-0 +1.3 units
YTD: 19-14 +14.5 units

Dallas +130 (Won) +1.3 units

[Mudcat]

Sweet.

[Clip Joint]

All plays are for 1 unit
Today: 1-0 +1.35 units
YTD: 20-14 +15.85 units

Atlanta +135 (Won) +1.35 units

[jjgold]

Looks to easy clipper using your system

Good Job so far

[Illusion]

Hey Clip, how many units did your system make last year in NFLX?

[Clip Joint]

Hey Clip, how many units did your system make last year in NFLX?

Last year was the worst season out of all that I have played. I will have to look it up. The 3-13 Week 3 really hurt things. That was the single worst week of the system in 3 years.

[SBR_John]

Might have to give that system a whirl but I feel a little square betting the board. What am I saying...I am square! I'll try it next year if i can remember.

[Illusion]

You still have time this year John. I started the system tonight.

[Clip Joint]

All plays are for 1 unit
Tonight: 4-5 +1.55 units
YTD: 24-19 +17.4 units

Cincinnati +200 (Lost) -1 unit
San Diego +250 (Lost) -1 unit
Chicago +130 (Won) +1.3 units
Green Bay +155 (Lost) -1 unit
New Orleans +105 (Lost) -1 unit
NY Giants +215 (Won) +2.15 units
Cleveland +220 (Lost) -1 unit
Arizona +155 (Won) +1.55 units
San Francisco +155 (Won) +1.55 units

[onlooker]

Nice chuck of change going into the regular season CJ. Great job.

[jjgold]

Lets face if you have a huge edge with Dogs in pre season or any other season in any sport