|
08-07-2007, 10:58 AM
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: 07-31-06
Posts: 2,502
|
I have serious long-term concerns over BetOnline
I received their brochure, studied their odds and rules, and spoke with an account manager. With their promotions, they don't stand a chance against sharp players. In particular (depending on which bonus plan you use), sharps WILL beat BetOnline with the following promotions:
1. -105 Juice. It took Pinnacle years to get to this (after dealing -108 for years). No other book has pulled it off, and many have tried. If a book is going to succeed at -105 juice, they need huge volume, and must embrace sharps with open arms.
2. 3-team 7:1 parlays. Why lay -105 when you can bet at +100? Again, sharps will bury a book with this promotion.
3. 2-team 6-pt +100 NFL teasers. Even recreational players can figure out how to win with this.
How does BetOnline plan to win with these loss leaders (and other bonuses)? By excluding sharp players. "We don't want professional players; only those that bet as a hobby." I responded "You want dumb players?" "Yes."
Their business model hopes to overcome its horrendous promos by marketing to recreational players, and forcefully avoiding sharps. It can't be done. Sharps will trickle through and bury this book. For those with short memory, BetOnSports marketed similar promos (at least on teasers and parlays).
I'm dissenting from SBR's "A-" rating. Based on a solid history of payouts and a lack of complaints, I could see it being a C+. But mark my words: Within 2 years, this book will either 1. be broke; or 2. substantially reduce its promotions.
If it's too good to be true, it is. If you play here, I wouldn't keep the same kind of balances I would with Pinny/Oly/Cris.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 11:58 AM
|
#2 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 12-16-06
Posts: 381
|
Nice to see a moderator with such honesty.
Im sure you saw I posted a thread asking who these guys are, and why they are rated A- so quickly, and got a lot of great talk and responses.
I guess time will tell.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:07 PM
|
#3 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 07-03-06
Location: La Selva Lacandona
Posts: 5,259
|
I'm still confused as how a book most people here have never heard of snuck up to A-. Especially in this day and age. I'd love to have another -105 shop, but this book does not look like the place for me.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:11 PM
|
#4 (permalink)
|
|
SBR MVP
Join Date: 12-16-05
Posts: 4,143
|
While I agree those promotions are absurd and detrimental in the long term, I can see the benefit they might provide as a strategy to increase playership and volume. They will surely take a loss during this time period, but if they are properly funded and as long as they are aggressively evaluating their players, they should be able to filter out undesirable entities and eventually move forward with a larger basis. This marketing model is often disastrous for operations that don't have the tools necessary to sustain a period of significant loss, but that doesn't mean the model in itself is flawed.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:14 PM
|
#5 (permalink)
|
|
SBR High Roller
Join Date: 02-09-07
Posts: 103
|
Justin I share your concerns. I think their 7% racebook rebate is very generous, maybe too generous. They've been great so far.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:23 PM
|
#6 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 08-10-05
Posts: 262
|
Not that I disagree with your overall assessment, but it looks like they've changed their 2 team, 6 point teaser odds to -110 from +100.
The old website (BestLineSports) still shows +100, but the new website (BetOnline) shows -110. I also just put a test bet through, and it was priced at -110.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:26 PM
|
#7 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Hall of Famer
Join Date: 08-25-05
Posts: 6,037
|
Great post Justin. As Vanzack said, it's good to see a mod come out and make a stance.
__________________
Stern and the NBA are about as legit as Creditwagering.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:27 PM
|
#8 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 08-10-05
Posts: 262
|
One other thing to note ... the people who sign up for the low juice package (-105) are apparently not getting the no-vig parlay odds ... the 3 team, 7-1 odds are reserved for the people who sign up for the -110 package ... the people on the -105 package are only getting 6-1.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 12:29 PM
|
#9 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Rookie
Join Date: 08-01-07
Posts: 45
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halifax
One other thing to note ... the people who sign up for the low juice package (-105) are apparently not getting the no-vig parlay odds ... the 3 team, 7-1 odds are reserved for the people who sign up for the -110 package ... the people on the -105 package are only getting 6-1.
|
That is correct.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 01:04 PM
|
#10 (permalink)
|
|
Administrator
Join Date: 07-12-05
Posts: 5,874
|
BOL does have some juicy offerings but I don't think they can be compared to Pinnacle in reduced juice or BOS in terms of promos.
Their "reduced" product has a listed max of $2000 that doesn't peak until game day. You can't keep hitting $5000 lines on an overnight. Some lines like MLs and hockey are full juice.
The parlay odds are offered only to players on the -110 lineset meaning BOL should be able to easily see who is only betting 3 teamers and crossing all the numbers. Many books change their parlay odds and I wouldn't be surprised if they went to 6.5:1 or lowered the limit. They will have to see how effective their marketing campaign was and how good their "risk assessment" team is.
BetOnline knows what their overhead is. This isn't a NoJuiceSports that is going to make up for a marketing budget by hanging too-good promos and hoping to find a positive bank account at the end of the season. But, I would agree that Pinnacle, Greek and CRIS are in a class by themselves for security.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OWNED
Great post Justin. As Vanzack said, it's good to see a mod come out and make a stance.
|
Mods are often some of the most experienced posters on the board and they are always encouraged to give their opinions same as posters. Books know they are under the microscope here.
Last edited by Bill Dozer : 08-07-2007 at 01:16 PM.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 01:23 PM
|
#11 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 07-19-06
Posts: 730
|
The 7-1 parlay odds have been available at this book for years - atleast as far back as October 2000. For info see Wongs Sharpsportsbetting page 143.
This book was apparently taken over by bestlines, BUT the model remains that of the old betonline when it was owned by Betonsports
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 01:54 PM
|
#12 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 08-02-07
Posts: 255
|
Fairly sound marketing strategy. They are giving away slight edges only. Like a loss leader in retail. But you bet anything else it reverts back to them. Lots of disenfranchised players looking for somewhere to go. Why not this place with the best offers for football this year? There is a huge void with the mass exodus of books. A lot of rec players are just going to go local, but the ones that got back there Neteller funds finally, and or others that want an out since last season's book they dealt with are gone, will gladly venture into a place like this. The 7% rebate is out there at the biggest books. They split up the offers, so you get juice or parlay? All depends on ease of funding, transfers and withdrawals. Looks workable to me as far as a business model.
__________________
I know of at least 3 people who middled that game!
A.A. after releasing Cincy +29 1/2 for his 2 dime special, it opened 34 1/2, landed 30.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 02:07 PM
|
#13 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Rookie
Join Date: 07-12-05
Location: Texas
Posts: 6,690
|
I like this book. I think they are a big winner if they can stay ahead of the processing issue.
They have been invited to sponsor the forum and I hope they do. They get a lot of press here so they really should. Their facility, their new one, is one of the best I've seen and I've seen a few. They have a good mix of upper management with strengths in both bookmaking and customer service.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 03:38 PM
|
#14 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Sharp
Join Date: 08-02-07
Posts: 255
|
Why should they, already get a lot of press without sponsoring. What I will do is say I saw the good rating on SBR, same with anyone I steer that way. I would have used a click thru from there, but there isn't one.

__________________
I know of at least 3 people who middled that game!
A.A. after releasing Cincy +29 1/2 for his 2 dime special, it opened 34 1/2, landed 30.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 06:51 PM
|
#15 (permalink)
|
|
SBR High Roller
Join Date: 07-20-07
Posts: 106
|
I would think that after last year a ton of players are looking to land. Whoever is willing to market to this group and cater to them should be able to build a good core base of players. I am sure Betonline wont cater to the professional players like Pinnacle did. I would expect much lower limits for sure.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 08:53 PM
|
#16 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Rookie
Join Date: 09-06-06
Posts: 19
|
They have a defense against being hit by even successful, recreational bettors. They quickly limit your bets to $1,000 if you seem to be betting anything sharp. Also, they put a delay on your wagers being accepted and if you have any history of winning, the wager won't be accepted. Instead, they move the line and give you the option of taking the bet at the worse line.
|
|
|
|
08-07-2007, 11:11 PM
|
#17 (permalink)
|
|
SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 08-10-05
Posts: 558
|
Panther...once on special rules do they move every line you bet? Or just put you on a delay in case the screen has changed--then give you what's there if it hasn't?
|
|
|
|
|