[pico]

this thread is related to the topic on this thread:
Free Play Challenge (no prize)

the goal here is figure the best way to use your free plays (assuming parlay is an option for free plays).

I am using the follow 4 mlb 10 cents lines from 5dimes as the odds (easier for me to figure out the true bookie odds).

game1: -114 +104
game2: -112 +102
game3: -109 -101
game4: -108 -102

the goal here is to achieve the best guranteed return using parlays. so far, from the thread above, ganchrow has proposed a good method to use 3 team parlay to get guranteed payoff of about 81%. I think that is pretty close to the optium payoff but i am still curious about what is the optimal return.

if you bet both sides on any game, you are guranteed to get 47.5 dollars for every 100 usd...or 1 team parlay

if you cover all combiantions for a 2 team parlay, you need 4 bets. for 3 team, you need 8, 4 teams you need 16....it pretty much doubles as you go up one more team. or you can draw the pascal triangle and add the rows up.

anyways, i use 5dimes to figure out the odds for 2 team parlays. with the worst odds is (using -109 and -108) x2.69, and using the best odds is (using -101 and -102) x2.94. with the worst odds, you are guranteed 67.25% payoff with the worst odds, i think you can achieve better payoff with weights.

for 3 team parlay, see the other thread. the payoff with the worst odds is about 75% and it can achieve up to about 81% with weights.

for 4 team parlay, the payoff for the worst odds is (-114, -112, -109, -108) x12.12, and the payoff for the best odds is (-104, +102, -101, -102) x15.24. the payoff for the worst odds is 75.75%. i bet with optimal weights, it can go above 80%. not sure if it will be higher than 81%. that is too many numbers to crunch.

it seems that as number of teams go up, i can achieve higher guranteed return. i did some calculations, with 6-team parlay (64 different bets), i can achieve 86% guranteed return.

because we're dealing with free plays, so we want the payoff to be as large as possible. actually the more teams in a parlay the better. assuming there is no limit on parlays (6 team limit for pinnacle...or was it 8...i forgot. for 5 dimes i have not hit a limit yet...i tried a 10 teamer with x1028 odds...not even sure there is a limit on max number of teams), and there are enough games with 10 cents lines. then the best strategy is take as many team as possible in a huge parlay combination to get a guranteed return of close to 90%. according to my calculation, the asymptote payoff is 90% because the 10 cents juice. so the goal is to achieve 89.99% payoff with parlay combinations. but realistically, i think the best way to go about this is to do 8 combination of 3 teamers. if you love math, you could do 16 combination of 4 teamers...because you need to fireup your excel sheet to figure out the optimal weights (not all games are -105 -105). I think if you can achieve 81-85% that is pretty damn good. making 16 4 team parlay bets is a lot of work...not mention you might make a mistake.

for 5 teamer, you need 32 bets
for 6 teamer, you need 64 bets
for 7 teamer, you need 128 bets
for 8 teamer, unless you have a robot betting for you, not really woth the trouble.

i think this is a pretty comprehensive guide for how to use your free plays.

questions/comments/or you spot a mistake?

[Lucas]

this action will be quite suspicious at 5Gods
it is not worth of the 5%-10% points of the freeplay IMO

[pico]

this action will be quite suspicious at 5Gods
it is not worth of the 5%-10% points of the freeplay IMO

if think if you do 8 3 team parlays, then you'll be fine

[Lucas]

no i will listen to pico /in future/, next time he will post hundreds of posts how 5dimes are the worst of the bad when they cut his limits or so, like it was by greeks issue

actually pico.. try it and inform us, that is the reason why forums are here

next notice... you can catch some nice steam in the middle of your parlays ... of course it can be on both sides, but it is factor for uncertainity

[Stumpage]

Seems like a whole lot of work to get a few extra percentage points, though I can completely understand the rationale of picking up a few extra $$$.....I don't know...I just say bet a big dog; Counter that with a favorite elsewhere, and move on to handicapping the next game.....But what do I know. Going for extra cash whenever possible seems like a good idea to me.....

[pico]

no i will listen to pico /in future/, next time he will post hundreds of posts how 5dimes are the worst of the bad when they cut his limits or so, like it was by greeks issue

actually pico.. try it and inform us, that is the reason why forums are here

next notice... you can catch some nice steam in the middle of your parlays ... of course it can be on both sides, but it is factor for uncertainity

not a issue for me. the only reason i am at 5dimes is their bonus. their limit is way too low for me, so once my rollover is done, i am taking out my money. i think i'll do the free plays early morning when there are no bets going around. hard to catch steam then. besides my entire free play is less than what i bet on a single game, so this is more as an interesting experiement rather than ways to make money. if i really want to use those freeplays, i would probably bet the entire amount on a +400 event and hope to cash in on that.

i did report my last free play results. i divy it up on two bets +107 and +125 (favorite win and draw for 1st half). and it was a draw, so i won the +125. the payoff for that is 62.5%. i think i can get an extra 18% using parlays...i'll let you know once i tried it.

[pico]

Seems like a whole lot of work to get a few extra percentage points, though I can completely understand the rationale of picking up a few extra $$$.....I don't know...I just say bet a big dog; Counter that with a favorite elsewhere, and move on to handicapping the next game.....But what do I know. Going for extra cash whenever possible seems like a good idea to me.....

i think it is a little misleading for 5dimes when they give you free plays rather than money. the greek give you sign up bonus that is actually money in your account. free play is not money, so i am just trying to figure out the best way to convert it to real money.

i used to agree with your logic, but think of it this way. you bet 100 dollars worth of free play, you win, you lose the free play. with real money, you win, you keep your original wager. so if you think about it, with no juice, free play is only worth half of its value when you bet it on anything. if you do the simple 3 team parlay, you can get up to 81%...than is 31% more money (with 10 cents line juice).

now if you want to bet on some other game, just wait you converted the free play to real money then use that on your bets. imo

[Stumpage]

i think it is a little misleading for 5dimes when they give you free plays rather than money. the greek give you sign up bonus that is actually money in your account. free play is not money, so i am just trying to figure out the best way to convert it to real money.

i used to agree with your logic, but think of it this way. you bet 100 dollars worth of free play, you win, you lose the free play. with real money, you win, you keep your original wager. so if you think about it, with no juice, free play is only worth half of its value when you bet it on anything. if you do the simple 3 team parlay, you can get up to 81%...than is 31% more money (with 10 cents line juice).

now if you want to bet on some other game, just wait you converted the free play to real money then use that on your bets. imo

No, I understand Pico.....My freeplays are pretty much limited to Cris now, so I can get a "success rate" of about 70-75% on any freebie just by scalping it out on a dog...That's all I aim for. I fully realize that a 75% minimum is attainable simply by doing the 8-way parlay and covering all possible outcomes, but I am pretty much able to get that % just by using the "big dog versus favorite" scenario. Sometimes less than 75%; sometimes more. Just comes down to about 20 seconds of work and then I move on to the "regular" wagering.....

[pico]

No, I understand Pico.....My freeplays are pretty much limited to Cris now, so I can get a "success rate" of about 70-75% on any freebie just by scalping it out on a dog...That's all I aim for. I fully realize that a 75% minimum is attainable simply by doing the 8-way parlay and covering all possible outcomes, but I am pretty much able to get that % just by using the "big dog versus favorite" scenario. Sometimes less than 75%; sometimes more. Just comes down to about 20 seconds of work and then I move on to the "regular" wagering.....

can you use freeplays on parlays at Cris?

[Lucas]

cris has push as lose right?
20 cent lines on MLB...

[Stumpage]

can you use freeplays on parlays at Cris?

Honestly, I have no idea, simply because I have never taken that approach. I would think you can, but then again Cris recently changed their freeplay rules. For example, for many years and up until recently, freebies could be used on MMA, Boxing, WNBA moneylines, all the "major sports", etc...That is not at all the case anymore, as of last month...Sorry Pico, hopefully somebody else can step up with that info.....

[Stumpage]

cris has push as lose right?
20 cent lines on MLB...

Yes....Well, cancel actually, but your freeplay is lost forever, amazing as that sounds. If you're going to use a freebie for MLB, get the latest pitching report, check the weather, and as Santo (I believe) noted, Go for the Dome!....Ridiculous actually that they are able to get away with that...How that is justifiable is way, way beyond me...

[pico]

Yes....Well, cancel actually, but your freeplay is lost forever, amazing as that sounds. If you're going to use a freebie for MLB, get the latest pitching report, check the weather, and as Santo (I believe) noted, Go for the Dome!....Ridiculous actually that they are able to get away with that...How that is justifiable is way, way beyond me...

wow, so a rain out means you lose the freeplay. wow yeah, i guess i have to check the weather report for all the teams i have to parlay. i think parlay with ML mlb is the best way to go at 5dimes...only 10 cents.

i guess free play is like getting rubles during the 90s, not money until you converted to your home currency.

[Stumpage]

wow, so a rain out means you lose the freeplay. wow yeah, i guess i have to check the weather report for all the teams i have to parlay. i think parlay with ML mlb is the best way to go at 5dimes...only 10 cents.

i guess free play is like getting rubles during the 90s, not money until you converted to your home currency.

Good point.....But yes, unless things have changed recently, a rainout means "Soyonara" to your freeplay cash. Now, I may be wrong on this, as perhaps the current rules have changed, but I can say without a shadow of a doubt that this was S.O.P., up until last year at the very latest. Again, perhaps things have changed, but you can be damn sure that if I'm going to bet an alternate run line using Cris, I have sent a spec-ops team in ahead of time to check the atmospheric conditions in whatever city the particular game is being played.....

[pico]

Good point.....But yes, unless things have changed recently, a rainout means "Soyonara" to your freeplay cash. Now, I may be wrong on this, as perhaps the current rules have changed, but I can say without a shadow of a doubt that this was S.O.P., up until last year at the very latest. Again, perhaps things have changed, but you can be damn sure that if I'm going to bet an alternate run line using Cris, I have sent a spec-ops team in ahead of time to check the atmospheric conditions in whatever city the particular game is being played.....

i use weather.com. i hate rain, i alway get screwed with the rain...still remember that cubs loss when they scored 4 runs then they still graded as a loss because they didn't complete the inning before the end of the day...cubs won the next day of course.

now i am learning weather patterns and crap...i would never have guessed that i am becoming a meteologist by betting on baseball.

[pico]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...tml#post296735

with no upper limit on number of team parlays and assume unlimited number of 10 cents games that you can use for parlays. is the asymptotic max payoff 90% or 95%? by linear approximation it looks like 90%, but for some reason i think it is 95%.

[Ganchrow]

this thread is related to the topic on this thread:
Free Play Challenge (no prize)


-snip-

I'm not sure what's really being adding to this very old, very simple topic. I think it's been discussed to death already on this forum and most others.

Anyway, in the example you've given the following allocation yields a risk-free conversion of 81.55%:

(-114, -112, -109, -108) => 6.73%
(-114, -112, -109, -102) => 6.53%
(-114, -112, -101, -108) => 6.46%
(-114, -112, -101, -102) => 6.27%
(-114, +102, -109, -108) => 6.27%
(-114, +102, -109, -102) => 6.09%
(-114, +102, -101, -108) => 6.03%
(-114, +102, -101, -102) => 5.85%
(-112, -112, -109, -108) => 6.67%
(-112, -112, -109, -102) => 6.47%
(-112, -112, -101, -108) => 6.41%
(-112, -112, -101, -102) => 6.22%
(-112, +102, -109, -108) => 6.22%
(-112, +102, -109, -102) => 6.03%
(-112, +102, -101, -108) => 5.97%
(-112, +102, -101, -102) => 5.80%

Given any number of -105/-105 markets, the following is a mapping of parlay size to conversion rates:

Parlay Size	Conversion Rate
1	47.62%
2	70.29%
3	80.53%
4	84.56%
5	85.52%
6	84.98%
7	83.70%
8	82.08%
9	80.31%
10	78.49%
11	76.67%

So what we see is that at -105 parlays of size 5 offer the highest conversion rates, at which point it starts to drop off.

I'll also add that another possibility for freeplays + parlays also exists. Specifically, using a parlay you can leverage a freeplay into a zero-vig bet (single or parlay). So if you felt that a particular outcome were likely to occur to with probability > 50%, you could combine that outcome with, say, 2 other teams to create 4 3-team parlays. In this manner, not only are you converting at 75%+, but you're also laying that entire conversion at +100 odds (i.e., vig-free).

[Ganchrow]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...tml#post296735

with no upper limit on number of team parlays and assume unlimited number of 10 cents games that you can use for parlays. is the asymptotic max payoff 90% or 95%? by linear approximation it looks like 90%, but for some reason i think it is 95%.

No. (See above post.)

[raiders72002]

I'm not sure what's really being adding to this very old, very simple topic. I think it's been discussed to death already on this forum and most others.

agree

[Santo]

The CRIS rule is:

"Freeplay bonuses can only be wagered in the sportsbook on the following sports: football (NFL or NCAA), basketball (NBA or NCAA), MLB, NHL. Freeplays can be used only on straight wagers and parlays. When a customer wins a free play wager, he receives the win amount only. No point buying. "

Now I don't know whether straight in this case means ML only, or ML/RL/Alternate RL etc are all ok..