[pico]

I have a figure out a way to hedge my bets to get guranteed 72% of my freeplay amount. Using tomorrow's lines at 5dimes (you can use other sportsbooks' line if you want). You win the challenge if you can make a series of bets that gurantee you payoff of more than 72%. I just took a couple of screen shots of the lines at 5dimes, so i can prove to you tomorrow that i do can get 72% guranteed return, in case you don't believe me. I think this is the best way to spend the free play dollars.

[pico]

because the expected return on a 100 dollar free play with no house edge is 50 dollars, so 72% is better than the expected return with no house edge. i think that is pretty damn good.

[moses millsap]

Just do 8 3 team parlays all with lines that have zero chance of pushing, i.e. totals of 8.5, 9.5, etc.

[Santo]

In domes

[pico]

Originally Posted by Santo

In domes

domes?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

because the expected return on a 100 dollar free play with no house edge is 50 dollars,

This is only true at even odds.

Discounting house edge:

• At odds of +257 expected freeplay return is about 72%.
• At odds of +500 expected freeplay return is about 83.3%.
• At odds of +1,500 expected freeplay return is about 94.8%.

Originally Posted by picoman

so 72% is better than the expected return with no house edge. i think that is pretty damn good.

As I mentioned in the other thread you started on this topic, you can always receive a risk-free 75% of the notional value of the freeplay by betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 3-team parlay at +600, and a risk-free 76.77% of notional betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 4-team parlay at +1228.3 (true parlay odds).

[pico]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

This is only true at even odds.

Discounting house edge:

• At odds of +257 expected freeplay return is about 72%.
• At odds of +500 expected freeplay return is about 83.3%.
• At odds of +1,500 expected freeplay return is about 94.8%.

As I mentioned in the other thread you started on this topic, you can always receive a risk-free 75% of the notional value of the freeplay by betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 3-team parlay at +600, and a risk-free 76.77% of notional betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 4-team parlay at +1228.3 (true parlay odds).

theoretically, you're right. if you can find 10 cent lines say -105, -105 for 3 games, then that would be the best way to do it. on 5dimes, i am not sure if can use freeplay for parlays, but i think i can...i have to wait until i bet enough to recieve my next batch of bonus.

i found 3 mlb games with close to even odds at 10 cents lines:

game1: +102, -112
game2: -101, -109
game3: -102, -108

when i do a 3 team parlay with the 3 worst odds (-112, -109, -108), my payoff is x5.99 (bet 1 dollar to win 5.99 dollars)

when i do a 3 team parlay with teh 3 best odds (+102, -101, -102), my payoff is x6.96.

in order to cover all possible outcomes, i need to do 8 different 3 team parlays. so the payoff for the remaining 6 parlays would be between x5.99 and x6.96

if i don't put weights on it, the worst possible outcome would be win 5.99 dollars for every 8 dollars i bet, which is 0.74875, which is pretty close to 75%. now if i adjust the weight a little, my guranteed payoff will be little higher (bet less on x6.96 and more on x5.99 etc), so i think it is possible to get above 75% with guaranteed payoff.

so i think the ideal 3-team parlay method is to find 3 10 cent lines with dead even odds (-105 for all 6 events) and do a 8-3 team parlay.

is that how you would do it ganchrow?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

theoretically, you're right. if you can find 10 cent lines say -105, -105 for 3 games, then that would be the best way to do it. on 5dimes, i am not sure if can use freeplay for parlays, but i think i can...i have to wait until i bet enough to recieve my next batch of bonus.

-snip-

is that how you would do it ganchrow?

If you can parlay games at a -105 line set then you can do better than 75% conversion (which assumes 3-team parlays paying off at +600 (a roughly -109.54 line set).

In the example you've given 80.65% of notional can be attained with the following freeplay allocation:

(+102, -101, -102) => 11.586%
(+102, -101, -108) => 11.962%
(+102, -109, -102) => 12.091%
(+102, -109, -108) => 12.485%
(-112, -101, -102) => 12.484%
(-112, -101, -108) => 12.894%
(-112, -109, -102) => 13.034%
(-112, -109, -108) => 13.464%

If all games were offered at -105/-105, conversion would be 80.53% (12.5% allocated to each game).

[BigDaddy]

Originally Posted by picoman

domes?

so the games wont get rained out

congrats on your discovery

i would look to do WNBA with all lines that have 1/2's

[pico]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

If you can parlay games at a -105 line set then you can do better than 75% conversion (which assumes 3-team parlays paying off at +600 (a roughly -109.54 line set).

In the example you've given 80.65% of notional can be attained with the following freeplay allocation:

(+102, -101, -102) => 11.586%
(+102, -101, -108) => 11.962%
(+102, -109, -102) => 12.091%
(+102, -109, -108) => 12.485%
(-112, -101, -102) => 12.484%
(-112, -101, -108) => 12.894%
(-112, -109, -102) => 13.034%
(-112, -109, -108) => 13.464%

If all games were offered at -105/-105, your conversion would be 80.53%.

wow, i was gonna plug it in my excel sheet but since i had to wait about 3-4 more days before i hit the next batch of free play, so i didn't go ahead and calculate it. thanks. you're the math whiz.

sometimes 5dimes has reduced overnight lines for mlb...not sure if i can use that in a parlay...i doubt that i can. the reduced juice lines is only 4 cents!!! i bet i can achieve 90% or higher with that...if parlay with reduced line is allowed.

do you think 80.53% is the best we can do (assuming you can't parlay reduce juice lines)? i think it is pretty damn good.

[pico]

Originally Posted by BigDaddy

so the games wont get rained out

congrats on your discovery

i would look to do WNBA with all lines that have 1/2's

yeah, a push is a bitch in parlays...that'll screw up your entire calculation. i think my discovery is not as good as ganchrow's proposed 3-team parlay method. now we can use to on 10 cents lines to get close to 81% of the free play...that is a lot better than my 72%. (i have not tested if 5dimes allow parlay on freeplay)

[easy_money]

Originally Posted by Santo

In domes

LOL

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by picoman

do you think 80.53% is the best we can do (assuming you can't parlay reduce juice lines)? i think it is pretty damn good.

Come football season, keep your eyes open for near scalps on bets with the long odds side offered at the freeplay book.

If you could find a +1000/-1100 market, for example, (and if you had the requisite free funds at the -1100 book to complete the hedge), your conversion rate would be 83.33%.