[Scorpion]

Onside kicks stats

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onside_kick

Onside kicks are generally very risky and are not often successful. Overall, between 2003 and 2006, an onside kick in the NFL was successful about 20% of the time (41 times out of 206 attempts), though there is a wide discrepancy between surprise kicks and those that the hands team expects. Among anticipated onside kicks, between the 2005 and 2006 seasons, the onside kick was 10-for-86, less than 12%.[3] This was before the league's rules changed to eliminate stacked formations, so that number has likely gone down even further. Surprise onside kicks, however, have had more success; in 2006, more than half of the surprise onside kicks were successful.[3]

[pavyracer]

The keyword is surprise.

[jgray]

Good info. I wondered about the efficacy of suprise onside kicks.

Still, in my opinion, a foolish call on Payton's part. Basically let the Superbowl come down to a coin-flip down by 4.

[Jshap1515]

Originally Posted by jgray

Good info. I wondered about the efficacy of suprise onside kicks.

Still, in my opinion, a foolish call on Payton's part. Basically let the Superbowl come down to a coin-flip down by 4.

Foolish call? That decision is the main reaosn why the other Peyton doesn't have the Superbowl MVP trophy in his hands

[rm18]

Surprise onside kicks are very +even especially in games with high totals. But of course you can't do them too often or they will be looking for it and it will not work.

[Dad]

Originally Posted by pavyracer

The keyword is surprise.

Some surprises are not good.

[Tree Rollins]

In the first half, the Saints D wasn't getting any pressure on Peyton and could hardly even slow the Colts down. The only thing that saved New Orleans in the 1st half was the offense holding the ball for nearly the entire second quarter.
Considering that, you're down 10-6 and your D is getting torched. You're about to give the colts the ball to start the 2nd half, Colt's get a field goal, at least, and you're only down a 7. Worst case, they get a TD and the game is practically over. Either way, you would have had to score on the next drive to stay in it. Apparently, during the week, the Saints had seen something in the Colts kickoff coverage where the front line guys were backing off to far and to fast. Knowing that, your chances to recover a surprise onside probably go from 50% to maybe 70%. I take those odds. I'd try to win the game over trying not to lose it.