Ever wonder how does a book know if you are a sharp

BuddyBear · 12-01-2005, 06:00 PM

Been meaning to write this for a while and I know a lot of people are curious about what "sharp action" means or "sharp line movement" Here is a brief explanation that will hopefully help.

The question is how does a book identify who a sharp is and who is not?

There is a common misperception that those who win frequently and in large amounts are considered sharps. This is true to a very small extant since being a sharp and winning are correlated but this is not the main criteria that a book uses to indentify you as a sharp.

Quite simply, a book determines you are a sharp if you are able to beat the closing number. That is, what number did you get compared to the number that it ended at. A couple recent examples from my own bets in NCAAB.

what i got it at: What it closed at:

Penn PK Penn -4

Penn ended up losing but a big line swing of 4 pts from the openiing number

Utah St +2 Utah St +1

Final Score: Utah 67 Utah St 66.

Clemson -4.5 Clemson -6

Clemson won by 8 or 9

San Francisco +2.5 San Francisco +1

SF lost in OT last night but should have won

As you can see certaint numbers matter big time as with the case for Utah St. Also, Penn had a 4 pt line swing and even though they lost this signals a red flag to the sportsbook so just be careful.

If you are regularly beating the number then a book considers you a sharp and has a number of options. (1) cut your limits (2) kick you out of their book (3) deal you dual lines (i.e. Bowman's) or (4) let you continuing playing. The good books will focus on the lines as opposed to the players (i.e. Pinnacle, CRIS, Olympic, etc...). The bad books will not that is why I always recommend playing at the good books.

Let me just say this...you could have a guy who is winning regularly compared to a guy who is struggling and losing money but beating the closing number....The book is more likely to ban the guy who is beating the closing number and let the guy who is winning continue on b/c sooner or later that guy will lose.

Good luck to all!

:0000016:

SBR_John · 12-01-2005, 06:40 PM

Thats a nice write.

Pinnacle showed me a program they have that tells if a player is sharp and it had nothing to do with his win %. Its all about what line you get. If you get a bad line and you win and win and win a zillion dollars you are still square.

jay88 · 12-01-2005, 06:47 PM

The book is more likely to ban the guy who is beating the closing number and let the guy who is winning continue on b/c sooner or later that guy will lose.

Good luck to all!

A winner is not a sharp 100% of the time...

pats3peat · 12-01-2005, 07:00 PM

how do people become good sharpers

raiders72001 · 12-01-2005, 07:22 PM

It's not necessarily beating closing numbers. If a line opens at -2 and gets steamed to -4 you can beat the closing number by getting -3 but you aren't a sharp.

Sharps beat the book to the first move. Those that got the -2 are sharp.

raiders72001 · 12-01-2005, 07:25 PM

Quote:

how do people become good sharpers

by knowing which way the line will move and always getting the best number.

jumper · 12-01-2005, 07:36 PM

some of this could be called anticipating line movement which is a skill based largely on perceiving the public attitude.this skill may be better suited for scalping especially baseball lines,or if you can get around key numbers shooting for a side or middle.i like these no or low risk plays;its frustrating when you make a straight play based on handicapping,find out the market agrees with you by the price movement in your favor,only to lose the bet-2 days ago northern iowa+4,dropped to +1,then they got spanked.

Senator7 · 12-02-2005, 12:17 AM

I'm surprised that closing numbers would have a lot to do with it. I would consider guys that play the openers on Sunday night to be sharp. At that time, most bettors are thinking about the Monday Night matchup while these guys are busy getting the best value for next week's games. I would think that the public usually doesn't touch the lines until Tuesday. If you've got the guts to make a play on Sunday night, a week ahead of time, you're paying attention, you know what you're doing, and you have to be somewhat sharp. Most of my bets are in by Monday and they're almost always at the number I want. I may add a play or two later in the week if the price is right, but I'm usually just happy to get the number that I want. Where it goes from there I could care less. I pay very little attention to closing numbers. I'm all about the openers. Just my 2 cents I guess.

pags11 · 12-02-2005, 04:28 AM

senator, good post...I often play games on Sun. night...

BuddyBear · 12-02-2005, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pats3peat

how do people become good sharpers

Good question....and the short answer is it takes time. First things first you need to indentify characteristics of a sharp.

Sharps generally
(1) bet against the public
(2) bet on underdogs
(3) bet games before the line moves
(4) have good money management skills...they don't chase
(5) line shop
(6) avoid line traps set by the linesmaker
(7) limit the number of games they play on a given day or weekend
(8) have contacts in the industry or other bettors

These are just a few things but I am sure there are other.

BuddyBear · 12-02-2005, 01:50 PM

and the most important thing is

(9) Sharps don't talk about how much they win...they play it cool. For them winning is part of their job. Amateurs and recreational bettors talk about how much they win...which of course they'll give it all back sooner or later.

raiders72001 · 12-02-2005, 04:35 PM

Sharps generally
(1) bet against the public- Correct that it does happen but too many people use this as a strict guide to make their plays. Being a contrarian does not make you a winner.

(2) bet on underdogs - False. Betting strictly dogs is a losing proposition. This year the favs have made a killing and the gap closes every year between favs and dogs.

(3) bet games before the line moves- 100 % correct.

(4) have good money management skills...they don't chase- 100% correct

(5) line shop - 100% correct

(6) avoid line traps set by the linesmaker - No such thing.

(7) limit the number of games they play on a given day or weekend - False- Any time you see an advantage play it. At -104 all you have to do is hit 51% to win. The best gamblers play tons of games.

(8) have contacts in the industry or other bettors - True- many work in teams sharing info.

(9) Sharps don't talk about how much they win...they play it cool. For them winning is part of their job. Amateurs and recreational bettors talk about how much they win...which of course they'll give it all back sooner or later- True

newb411breaker19 · 12-02-2005, 05:52 PM

i've heard a lot about trap lines lately, what are they?

pats3peat · 12-02-2005, 06:04 PM

thanks for the info BB/raiders

bb you mentioned amateur/recreational players will eventually give all their money back to the books.. why do you think this? i think a recreational bettor can still know what hes doing

raiders72001 · 12-02-2005, 06:12 PM

Quote:

i've heard a lot about trap lines lately, what are they?

pure fiction. No such thing.

BuddyBear · 12-02-2005, 06:25 PM

Raiders thanks...I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on some points. I do agree that betting dogs exclusively won't get you very far but there are certain situations in which dogs are very high percentage plays. Of course sharps bet favorites.

As far as trap lines go, those are lines that are set by Vegas to get you to bet on one side knowing that the line is wrong but they are trying to sucker you into betting one way....just look at that Iona/Fordham game yesterday (see my thread in the sports wager section on it). This is especially the case in baseball.

let me give you an example....last July Oakland was playing in Toronto and oakland was red hot. They had won like 9 of10 or something like that...they became a public team. The pitching matchup was Joe Blanton vs. Ted Lilly. Blanton a rookie was facing Lilly a veteran who had struggled but had pitched very well at home. In fact, overall the A's struggled on the road. To top it off, Blanton had never won a game in his MLB career on the road. Of course, TOR should be the favorite right...wrong, OAK was the favorite b/c the linesmaker knew people were going to pound OAK b/c of their public perception...why not get them to pay the juice instead of no juice. TOR won 8-0 if i remember correctly.

That's an example of a trap line...looks real good. Lilly struggling with high ERA, OAK on fire, solid rookie pitcher...and OAK is only -115 what a bargain. That's how trap lines work newb.

Whether they exist or not is a matter of subjective experience.

BuddyBear · 12-02-2005, 06:29 PM