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  1. #1

    Default hedging baseball totals

    I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
    Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
    I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
    Does anyone have any data on this?

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by rob View Post
    I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
    Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
    I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
    Does anyone have any data on this?
    I doubt you will find 2 point gaps on totals

    also some totals at times are -130 which would begin to add up if this side loses

  3. #3

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    You can look at Pinnacle's buy/sell options to get a rough idea of what numbers are worth.

  4. #4

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    playing the middle is an art...i have no clue how to do it, and i bet if you want to try, it'll take you a while before you figure out a good system.

  5. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rob View Post
    I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
    Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
    I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
    Does anyone have any data on this?
    I would bet everything I own that this will never be profitable over the course of 3 days, much less long term.

  6. #6
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    Default

    While I don't have data on this I think it wouldn't be profitable as the others have said. One hit on 8 (or whatever the number is) will take a toll on all the small winnings.

    Now betting on an over 7.5 early (if you believe it's too low) and trying to cover later with an under 8.5 or 9 if you think it will get there is a different story. Trading lines like that can be profitable or can get you burnt real quick.

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