[BigBollocks]

This is a question I've asked for years and still have little clarity on. Are any of you in here familiar with anyone who has been able to sustain long term profits handicapping horses? It just seems like such an incredibly difficult venture to do with the track takeout (granted the takeout is generally much higher at shit tracks). Not only that, but the discipline involved to be a successful long-term horse capper would far exceed that required for sports or poker, as so many races are simply unplayable and present losing EV all around (i.e. a five horse field with all horses relatively equal all going off at 5-2 to 3-1). Sure you may get lucky a few times over, but eventually the takeout will crush you if you don't exercise extreme discretion.

I'd love to get a good horse discussion/strategy thread going in here. Cheers

[BigBollocks]

Also, do professional horse handicappers limit themselves to quality races at high-end tracks? I've watched so many small claimers and maiden claimers at these shit tracks that make absolutely no sense.

Not only that, but you have to figure that for every race fixing scandal at these shit tracks that gets reported there are probably 50 that don't. I'd probably do the same thing when the winning jockey's take is $50 in some races. My favorite is when exacta combinations pay absolutely nothing compared to the listed odds, or when you're at a track like Penn National and a horse with no good workouts or previous form is listed at 25-1 in the program, opens up as a 2-1 favorite (early stable money), closes around 4-1 with a late rush, and runs the race of his life.

[jjgold]

Billy wrong forum for that

try trackchampion or paceadvantage

[EBone]

I wish I could talk shop about this subject, BB. Unfortunately, I've never tried to have a go at horses professionally. I think everything you have said is correct; I've read lots of things in different places.

If I had to say the one thing that would be crucial in serious horse handicapping, it would be data collection. I really don't think you do it without some sort of super data sorter for Beyers ratings, Open Odds, Closing Odds, Tracks, Race Lengths, Types of race (maiden, claimer, allowance, stakes), etc....

I don't know if I read it on here or not. But I had read somewhere that money could be made at the reputable tracks by just betting SHOW's on the best Beyer figure in each race. Now granted, you'd have to probably bet at least $200 per show for each race in a day. The bankroll to do something like that would have to be rather substantial to make a living doing that. I certainly wouldn't start doing that without getting my homework done.

I know a little about Oaklawn in Hot Springs and, traditionally, class drops hold to form there.

To answer your question, I think it would be really, really tough to bet horse races professionally.



E

[cobra_king]

I've been betting harness horses professionally for 15 years. So if it's just a t-bred discussion you are interested in i can't really add anything as handicapping techniques are entirely different. But i can speak to some of what you are asking about. In terms of discipline, you are very much correct that most races are completely unplayable and as such MUST not be played. I would say that 65% of all races carded are unplayable during a racing week, and of those 35% remaining maybe only half of those are ones that would present a wagering opportunity. I am not a believer in "action" bets, especially in a game where the take-out is high, you cannot give away that much of an edge just to have something going. As for your second question, if a race fits into the type of scenario you are looking for, or has a long term profitability, than regardless of the class it would be one that i would consider playing. Also, one final thing. Being able to adapt to the changing face of the the betting profile is important. A quick example of this would be the 10 and 20 cent superfecta's and pick 4's that have come into the game. Before these came into effect, i would play these bets constantly as a large score could routinely be the outcome. However with the advent of the 20c bet, i can't play these anymore (especially superfecta's which was the core of my betting profile) because too many pieces are getting taken out by the smaller player who can play many more combinations now. Anyway, just my take on the questions you asked, i hope they helped!

[BigBollocks]

Thanks JJ, I'll take a look at those forums. I definitely need to get up with you to discuss horseracing further sometime.

EBone you and I see eye to eye about the work required. Thanks for giving me even more food for thought .


Cobra that is terrific! I really appreciate your initial feedback. Do you place your bets at the track or via the internet? One of the main problems I've had in the past is getting bored stiff at the track and placing wagers that I know I wouldn't put in if I were at home. That's interesting how those 10 and 20 cent supers have changed things. I'd love to know more about harness racing, as I've bet it in the past but am certainly lacking in being able to determine value. Do you tend to bet more shots or 1st and 2nd favorites? I used to bet Meadowlands and Northfield (home of the flying turns) a fair amount. Some of the harness tracks have such small win pools that I'm able to shift the odds on my own, which I certainly am not overly fond of.


Cheers....

[cobra_king]

BB
I will use a combination of both betting thru the internet and also place bets at the track. It really depends on the race and the type of bet that i'm going to play. Of the 5 days a week that they race, i'm at the track probably on 4 of them (the other day watching from home) so if that's the case most of my money will go in at the track, however i'm not adverse to calling home and having my wife place the wager via the internet if needed. As for the price of the horse, it's not a general rule but it generally is negative EV (at least the way i handicap and bet) to wager on any horse that is less than 5-2. Sure a horse that should be 6-5 is value at 2-1, but my strength is finding horses that should be 4-1 going off at 10-1. As for the small tracks, you are correct that the pools are far to small and thus i never venture into them. If you do play the "B" tracks, stick to exotics as the payoffs will be less adversely affected as opposed to just betting to win.

[EquineActuary]

I did my first season of NFL handicapping in 2009 (62% ATS, 93 - 57) at http://www.bestofblog.net/nfl_picks_2009/

I'm now just getting into handicapping horses. I've read about 10 books in the last two weeks and developed some pretty slick spreadsheets. One of the things that I can already see is that its a fluid game that requires constant recalibration. In the same way that poker is more beatable than blackjack because you play against the public instead of the house, the horses are more beatable than many gambling ventures. But just as the correct poker strategy depends upon your opposition, the correct strategy for betting the horses is not static.

I'm all for reducing the house take. The 12% pick three at Sam Houston works out to just over 4% take on your action. (Your action is roughly tripled on a pick 3, but unlike a parlay they don't take three cuts). This may be enough to overcome the hunch bettors. Then you just have to be better than 50% of the handicappers. In general the exotics offer lower actual takeout, especially tracks that give all exotics the same takeout (here pick 3, trifecta, pick 4, and superfecta are preferred).

I was surprised to hear Cobra speak disparagingly about the 20 cent bettors. Just as a poker player should love rather than hate a river rat (unless pot odds justify presence at the river), an exotic player should welcome smaller bettors that are more likely to represent uneducated money in the pot, even if it reduces payouts some of the time.

Anyhow, Cobra knows more than I do about winning on horses. He has been winning steadily for 15 years. I am inclined to believe him; this seems like a beatable game. Whether you can win an amount commensurate with the effort you exert I have yet to determine. But right now its still fun. ( :

Happy