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Question for disciplined bettors who utilize strong money mgmt skills.
This question is for the disciplined players on here who bet a small percentage (1%-3%)of their bankroll on games..
I'm curious to know if any of you ever step out of the box and wager a "HUGE" amount on a particular game..
For example let's say you are ahead $7500 for the season basically from $100-$200 bets. Do you ever say "FU*K it" let's try to win $2500 and see if we could be ahead 10k or do you "ALWAYS" bet a small % of the bank?
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
ALWAYS 2%!
Absolutely no exceptions, no matter what.
I may not make the most of my edges that way, but so long as I pick more winners than losers, I will always make a profit.
It is the safest, easiest, and most stable method for success though I assume many on here will disagree with me.
It does take a lot of discipline to stick to it and I think that's why most do not.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/20/2005
Wow senator!!! How have you been sir? Where were ya?
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
I'm good man, thanks for asking.Originally Posted by imgv94
I had a job that didn't afford me a lot of time to do this. I have since moved on and am back in the action.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/20/2005
With all of the excellent writings on Kelly posted on here by Ganchrow, anyone serious about making money should know how to size their bets given their theoretical edge.
If you have no idea what your theoretical edge is, then you're betting recreationally and you should bet whatever is fun for you.
I ususally use good money management skills but once in awhile step up and go for the home run, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Game 4, I was going to buy myself a diamond lined Rolex if the Pistons won. Nonetheless they lost.
Just an example to show the difference between theory and reality. Let's say you would need 4K a month to live off. Decide how many bets you think you can win more than you lose each month. For illustration purposes lets make it two bets for each month. That means your bet size is 2K to make the monthly 4K profit. This is real life, so you want peace of mind (as important ingredient of life style), so you bet no more than 2% of your bankroll. Here 2% is a 2K bet, so your bankroll has to be 100K. If that is what you really want, but you don't have that kind of money, work your ass off for a few years to get it.
(FWIW, most fortunes in America are made in real estate and the stock market. Sports betting isn't even on the list; not even in the footnotes.)
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/14/2005
try not to, but it has happened. I hope I never do it again-unless it's a winner.
I did try this a few years back on a bowl game and failed miserably. I have almost got all my money back from that.
I've now been able to go only 5 units as a maximum bet and grind it out. I had to learn the hard way (on a few occasions unfortunately) but I'm convinced that the grind is the only way to make it work.
My one unit is $100 so I never make a bet now over $500. Sometimes, it is very tempting but I've stepped out before and got majorly burned.
E
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
Ive done it twice and came out a very lucky winner twice this year.Normally I stick to my $100 a shot.
Later
Never. No game has a high enough % chance of covering to justify such a play.
I understand why people do the 1-5 unit stuff and I use to do it myself until I realized that the only games that really mattered using that system were my 4 and 5 unit plays.
There were days when I would pick more winners than losers but I still lost money because my 4 and 5 unit plays lost.
Now, I just play a straight 2% of my bankroll on every play I make. Its a grind and its not exciting, but its stable and its fun and that's really all that matters to me. I don't bet sports professionally and I have no pipe dreams about doing so in the future. I am simply a very serious and dedicated recreational player and that's more than enough for me.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/20/2005
Good discussion so far gentleman keep it coming..
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
I bet directly proportional to how confident I am in a game, because the more bets that I have on the line, the more I reduce the effects of short term variation. I have preset limits for myself, and this last season my limits were 100-1500 with a 'standard bet of 200-400.
I've gone 161-90 over the last 2 years with the majority of my bets at $300. I also bet $200 or $400 pretty frequently if I'm more or less confident on a game. I will bet $100 on games where I haven't seen either team play more than once or twice but I have a reason to believe one team will win based on statistics or something like that.
I bet $600-$700 once in awhile when I'm REALLY confident in a game, and over the last 2 years I've only had two games where I was 90% sure that a team was going to cover. (Read: about as certain as anything can ever get when betting on CFB) Two years ago Stanford was like a 7 point dog against Oregon, and this year Oregon was a 1 point dog to ASU. I thought both lines were ridiculous (I had Oregon -21.5 rather than -7 and Oregon -8 rather than +1 when I made the lines) so I put 1000 on the first one and 1500 on the second. Oregon won huge both times, so I'm 2-0 on my 'huge' bets, and by a huge margin.
Disappointingly enough, despite my 161-90 record, I went 10-3 two years ago and 25-24 this year on my big bets which is 56% which is actually LOWER than my overall percentage. Guess I have talent for picking winners, but I overestimate my ability to assign confidences to each pick.
To answer your question more directly, I think it's stupid to raise the stakes to a point where you are outbetting your bankroll. Treating your bankroll like a tournament buyin in poker terms has only two possible results: 1% chance you win big, 99% chance you end up broke.
Sorry, but I don't like playing the lottery.
I have learned the hard way that the big bets usually bite you in the ass. However, if I have built my bankroll up to a point where I know I can afford to lose a wager that might be 2-4 times my normal wager - I will do it if I really feel strongly about a game. Guaranteed, those are FEW and FAR between.
Betting big is really the only way to go. Otherwise you just spend your life pissing away money on the juice. If you go bust you're probably better off because then you can just focus on driving the delivery truck, but if you get lucky and hit on your big bets then you can feel like a real bigtimer for at least a couple months give or take 2 months.
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/16/2005
What does this mean? I intepret it to mean that if it isn't enough to give you a thrill it isn't worth it. That's problem gambler speak.
If you don't have enough edge to overcome the juice, don't bet it.
This is probably the most sensible statement of the 3.
As for betting X units on a wager, it's been beaten to death on here numerous times before. But, if 1% of sports bettors are winners over the long term, I'd say 1% of those winners are good enough to quantify exactly how much of an edge they have to the point that varying the wager amount would be useful. It's all mathematics, and it's been discussed to death on here already.
SBR Founder Join Date: 10/6/2005
Below is the exact reply that I had to another thread about NFL investing. I've been doing this for 8 years and have developed this investment system to keep me from jumping in on a can't miss chance that always seems to bite me in the a$$ at the end of the day. If you notice I invest quite a bit of the bankroll everyweek, but I look at the whole season as opposed to looking for a good week. This way I don't find myself chasing losses from previous weeks because it seems like sometimes you can't lose no matter how dumb of a wager you have and other times you can't win to save you life even if it is a absurd line that you know a team will cover.
My NFL investment manefesto goes like this:
1) First determine how much I have for the entire season.
(this year will probably be about $25,000)
2) Divide the amount in bullet 1 by 100 ($25,000/100 = $250)
to get a unit amount invested.
3) Preseason is worth 8 units played anyway I feel.
4) Regular season is like this:
For each week I pick (1) best play being either a Against the spread or under/over investment.
Weeks 1 and 2 are worth 8 units each
Weeks 3 through 15 are worth 10 units each
During week 3 through 15 there is one week witch will be called my NFL Super Nova Lock of the Moment that is worth another 5 units for 15 units total on that game.
Weeks 16 and 17 are worth 8 units each
5) Playoffs are worth 2 units each and usually only 4 games are invested in for the entire playoff season
6) Super Bowls are worth up to 5 units max and can be a parlay,prop, or whatever seems to give value.
Rage?
Do you only bet one game a week? Also how bout college?
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
If you're not willing to bet big then why bet at all? Sure, you can bet a couple small plays here and there but if you're going to bet small all the time, don't bet at all. Just make predictions and save your money. Make the big bucks or find another hobby.
I bet sports for the challenge, not the money. I love statistics, analyzing matchups, and I love the fact that its me against the line, the public, and the bookmaker. I am not results oriented, I am much more focused on making the right decisions over the long term. Its better to be right and lose than to be wrong and win...
I don't get a high from gambling, its merely a competition for me. No different then when I played baseball in college. The same applies to me and poker. I don't have to bet on sports, I do it because I love sports and I like to be right after spending time analyzing and breaking down a game. I have no pipe dreams about doing this professionally. I have a job I love that pays me well. I could be betting $5 a game and get the same thrill as betting $5,000 a game when I win. The money is irrelevant and more like points to keep score...
Last edited by Senator7; 06-04-07 at 08:54 PM.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/20/2005
Why not just bet the whole $7500 and be done with it?
Wow, I could not disagree any more with you buztah. As a freshman in college, I had about $4000 in my bank account. Now, I'm a Junior and despite all my expenses and spending I have $35000 thanks to careful money management, sports betting, poker and reselling old Air Jordan collections.
I have never at any point exposed my bank account to undue risk, I just 1-4% per game and as my bankroll grows then so do my bets. In fact, I don't even like gambling. I've never played blackjack or craps or any of that stuff in my life, and I've never bet on sports other than CFB and I don't even usually bet the biggest games of the week.
"Gambling" be it in the stock market, sports, cards, real estate or whatever exists to me for only one reason: to make money. If it's not making money at a high ROI, $ per hour, and without undue risk, then I'm out.
^^^ I think the same way in poker too... people always ask me why I play cards at the $1000 NL table with all the crappy players instead of the 10/20 NL table with the good players and pros where I'm probably good enough to turn a profit too...
I don't care who I beat in poker, and I don't like playing good players, and I don't care if the local pros respect me. I just want as much money per hour as possible while protecting my roll. it's much better to be the 1000th best player in the world at a table full of idiots than the 9th best player in the world sitting at a table with the other 8...
I do bet on college but usually only for $50 to $100 and usually on or against the Gators since they are my school that I got my degree at.
Monster bet tonight on the Toronto Blue Jays, boys. That's just the way I play. Will either win enough tonight to eat T-bones for a year every night or I'll have to make do with spam. Old school player. That's how I like to live.
Senator, I could have penned this post...I feel the exact same way. I get as much thrill betting $5 on a game as I do $5000. It is more about putting effort into analyzing and breaking down stats and then making a choice and being right than it is about the wagering. The wagering is just a way to put your choice on the line ... that's the competition part - a way to determine if you are behind or ahead.
Yea, I gotta say - while I certainly like to make money, it's more about actually WINNING.That is to say, beating the house. I bet relatively small and stick in the 2-5% ranger per wager but I live in Thailand, not the US or Switzerland so if I make a couple grand a month it adds some nice pocket change to the income - but the real thrill is not so much the money but analyzing and doing well. I only bet on boxing - nothing else and wouldn't know where to begin if I were to switch up and bet on another sport.
I don't understand this part?
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
Think what you could buy for $2000 in Thailand and what you could buy for $2000 in the USA or Switzerland.
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
That much money will get you laid in Thailand for an entire year....
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
SBR POKER TOP 100
14th Place 11/1/2011
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/22/2005
Roxy Roxborough moved there I believe
SBR Founder Join Date: 11/16/2005
Fire up the grill.
Tampa Bay 11
Toronto 12
At one point Toronto trailed 8-1. Going into the bottom of the ninth the score was 11-6.
SBR Founder Join Date: 12/16/2005
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