Line movement theory question?

BuddyBear · 11-28-2005, 11:40 AM

Calling all Line movement theorists!!!

Quick question here.

Handicapping 101 states that you always bet the team that was favored first even if that teams becomes the underdog (unless there is some injury see Florida vs. Georgia this year).

However the smart money method doesn't address this and instead says follow the smart money.

Example....Appalachian St vs. James Madison...line opened up with Appalachian St (-1) and with 76% of bets on Appalachian St, the line has shifted to James Madison (-1.5).

I know it's a tough question and only a few on here can address this type of question but how should we reconcile this difference?

Santo · 11-28-2005, 11:48 AM

Bigger bets on Madison is the only way to reconcile it surely... either in an attempt to move the line for buyback, or more likely in this case IMO because Madison is the right side..

BuddyBear · 11-28-2005, 11:50 AM

I am on Madison alrady...of course you would expect that from a guy who lives in Madison. Also VATECH is a smart money play tonight.

Santo · 11-28-2005, 11:52 AM

I also got on Madison when the line moved.

Still PK-114 at Matchbook but for low olume, PK-115 at Pinny showing an unwillingless to move the number, probably to limit buyback..

Betman · 11-28-2005, 12:32 PM

I can't help but think that something is wrong with this game.

Appalachian has a better record so far and played tougher competition than Madison but then again the line movement suggests a play on Madison.

I am staying away. Good luck to you.

BuddyBear · 11-28-2005, 12:58 PM

APS is back as a favorite...weird. I locked in Madison...hope Madison comes through now.

BuddyBear · 11-28-2005, 01:17 PM

now Madison is back as a favorite??? Some weird line movement.

Brick Tamland · 11-28-2005, 01:45 PM

Never play the "samrt money" side after the move.

pags11 · 11-29-2005, 04:23 PM

buddybear, my theory is that a line movement from -1.5 to +1.5 is not nearly as significant as say -3 to -6 or -3 to PK...what I mean is that -1.5 and +1.5 are lines that are pretty much the same to me and sometimes as handicappers we can get caught up in the line moves...I just think we need to pay attention to what the numbers actually mean, are they key numbers?...

Scorpion · 11-29-2005, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

Calling all Line movement theorists!!!

Quick question here.

Handicapping 101 states that you always bet the team that was favored first even if that teams becomes the underdog (unless there is some injury see Florida vs. Georgia this year).

However the smart money method doesn't address this and instead says follow the smart money.

Example....Appalachian St vs. James Madison...line opened up with Appalachian St (-1) and with 76% of bets on Appalachian St, the line has shifted to James Madison (-1.5).

I know it's a tough question and only a few on here can address this type of question but how should we reconcile this difference?

WITH SOILD DATA:
when a fav becomes a dog their ats record vs the closing line is 407-351 53.7%

when a dog becomes a fav their record vs the opening line is 417-347 54.5%

BuddyBear · 11-29-2005, 04:48 PM

thanks scorpion that is very helpful. Thanks for the other good responses fellows.

Worked out well last night kind of...JMU came through with a 2pt 2ot victory but VTECH choked in the final few minutes. I was kind of glad b/c i had VTECH at +8.5 and the line shifted to +11 so i would have been very mad at myself had it fallen on 9, 10, or 11.

darkghost · 11-29-2005, 05:26 PM

Scorpion,

What sports does that stat apply to?

Good info BTW

BB I picked up Vtech late at +12. Got excited when they cut it down to 3 but they never scored a single pt after that. Ohio St went on a 10-0 run to finish it out seems like I can't catch a break these days.

Scorpion · 11-29-2005, 06:15 PM

ncaa hoops