[AspeK]

Hi, I did a search about that and saw a lot of thread but no one was talking about something pretty basic.

If someone have a lot of money like over 50 000$+ and bet 1000$ a bet, and can do 3 or 4 units over by month (very possible) he can do a great living with it. Did I miss somethings? Will they lower your limit if you win like that with Pinny or Cris? Is the money safe if you let over 50k on a sportsbook?

[BuddyBear]

$50,000 is not much of a bankroll at all to be doing this for a living......if $1000 is your unit and you make on average 3 units a month (3x12 =36) then you've made $36,00 a year or even the 4 unit total would get you $48,000....

Hopefully you would have a wife who worked b/c $36,000-$48,000 won't get you very far if you have a family.

[AspeK]

I know, that was an example of the system, you can change the numbers if you want. The questions was more will they limits you after 1 or 2 years? I think yes but want some veteran opinions on that.

[BuddyBear]

i see.....yeah if you can grind out a profit every month and have a sufficient bankroll then it may be worth a shot but it is real hard to do it for a living. Good luck with it Aspek....

[AspeK]

And btw I find this very good 4000$ per month for 3-4 hours a day. Maybe in canada we are not big shot like in usa but with that I can have a 1500$ condo a mustang and travel 2 times a years.

[The HG]

It's not clear how books will behave now that the US law has thrown something of a monkey wrench into things, but the basic way it used to work was, yes all the lower books will limit you down to zero, but if you're a pro that doesn't matter to you in the long run. The just below top-rated books, it would depend. They might partially limit you, or wait it out a bit, or if you are making a lot on a particular kind of prop bet, they might just ban you from making that kind of bet. Of course, if you pissed them off somehow, and they considered you a pest, they would be much more likely to be rid of you. Pinnacle, though, wouldn't ban you, and sometimes they'd try to hire you.

Now it's not exactly clear how things will wind up, at least in the US. But exchanges, of course, will never ban you, so if your edge comes from straight basic capping, and your unit size is low enough to not be hurt by the low liquidity of exchanges, you're in good shape.

[AspeK]

I looked at betfair but its pretty hard to put high volume (1000$+) on hockey (for me) in NFL and MLB you dont have this problem but with the new law i dont know if the limits of the american sports will be that high. I mean the one betting on NFL and MLB are in majority from usa so if they cant vote I dont think they will get high volume of money like 1 year ago.

Anyway that was my first complete season of betting hockey and I did pretty good. approx 1500 bets and did 80 units (55%) I bet mainly straight ml or spread and total.

My idea was to start next season with 25 000$ and double it at the end and try to make a living in 2 years but right now its all theory and not enough practice. But Im pretty sure a lot of people is doing that for a living here but just dont post, its the first time I post and I read this forum from 10 monthes ago.

[durito]

Certainly you can do that (assuming you can continue in the future to hit 55% and that's a big if)

But, you better have a reserve bankroll and savings to live on in case of a protracted losing streak. Even if your long term edge is in fact 55%, you will have losing months, seasons, and years.

The new US situation changes everything in regards to books though, but in the past there were places (pinnacle) that wouldn't limit you.

[raiders72002]

Some books will never boot you and even allow you to in-house scalp when the opportunity exists.

[AspeK]

For sure I will have enough to survive 1 year before quitting my real job. But I dont trust pinnacle like you all do, im pretty sure when they will see that its not luck and that in long term they will never see their cash again they will limit my max limits.

I dont think I can have bad season/year maybe some bad monthes but if I ever get a year in the minus, that would just prove that my system doesnt work and Im afraid its gonna be too late.

[jjgold]

I am really against people trying to do this for a living. It usually ends up in failure, when doing this for a living everything changes and the pressure is great and most go broke. It is almost impossible to pull this off.

[crackerjack]

If it's what you want to do, good luck to you but I agree with jj...

That being said, I think being in Canada you have more options. And you certainly have the option of spreading your bets out among different books instead of using one exclusively. If you took a book for $4000 a month consistently they might ban you or reduce your limits. But if you took four books for $1000 a month, you would not draw the same attention.

[BuddyBear]

Pinnacle routinely takes 6 figure bets.....they won't even notice if you win $3000-4000 a month.

You should check out Fezzik's place and talk to some of those guys on there ....I've noticed a number of posters on that site who have attempted to do it for a living and failed miserably at it or gone broke and eventually they had to go back to work and beg their bosses for their job back and they usually went back with a reduced salary and had to work more hours. Only a handful of people can do this for a living.....good luck to you sir....

[Poventino]

I think you can make some $'s for a short period of time, but in the long run you would probably lose.

With that said, you will need a lot of dedication. What lifestyle one has, etc.

Good Luck in what you decide.







.

[Arilou]

The books whose business models support having winners will let you stay. The others will boot you, one by one, or limit you to the point where they are not worth your time. But there are enough books willing to let you stay that you should be fine. If necessary, Matchbook and Pinnacle alone is already a strong combination and neither will ever worry about you winning money.

In the long run, whether you win will depend on whether you have found a way to get an edge and then handle the logistics well - bankroll management and such. The biggest thing is, you need more money than you think because you don't want to just tread water on a good year. If you start with 50K and make 30K, you still have 50K because of living expenses... and when you have a bad year, you're back to a 9-to-5. Instead you need to make MORE than you need, so that you can survive the lean years.

[durito]

Originally Posted by AspeK

For sure I will have enough to survive 1 year before quitting my real job. But I dont trust pinnacle like you all do, im pretty sure when they will see that its not luck and that in long term they will never see their cash again they will limit my max limits.

I dont think I can have bad season/year maybe some bad monthes but if I ever get a year in the minus, that would just prove that my system doesnt work and Im afraid its gonna be too late.

Too be perfectly honest, if you believe this, then you don't have a strong enough understanding of probability/statistics to do this for a living.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by durito

Too be perfectly honest, if you believe this, then you don't have a strong enough understanding of probability/statistics to do this for a living.

If the OP truly expected to hit 55% at -110 over a 1,500-bet year, his probability of failing to make a profit in a given year would be about 2.03% if flat betting and about 15.58% if Kelly betting.

Sticking with the same 5% edge, but assume his bet selections were weighted towards favorites and the 2.03% and 15.58% figures would both drop further. Assuming a line of -135, for example, his no-profit probabilities would be 1.14% for flat betting and 13.07% from Kelly betting.

If the OP really and truly can produce the numbers he's suggesting and if he realizes he may need to subsist on tuna fish, peanut butter, bananas, and ramen noodles for a few months and if he's comfortable with the possibility that due solely to bad luck he may well lose substantially all of his bankroll and if he's 100% certain that if need be he could survive with zero bankroll for a stretch until finding a new job, I think he could very give it a shot with 50K. (Although I'd say he would need to start off betting more more than $1,000 a pop, and certainly vary his bet size with his bankroll).

I don't think the real issue is the feasibility of the plan if his numbers are accurate, I think the real issue is are his number accurate?

At the risk of understatement, I'd say I have my doubts ...

[RickySteve]

Originally Posted by Arilou

If you start with 50K and make 30K, you still have 50K because of living expenses.

If you're earning 60% on capital per year and not increasing your net worth, you have some serious leaks.

[AspeK]

First, its pretty hard to use a lot of book because for my capping Pinny have always the better odds 95% of times so I dont think its a good idea to cap at a lot of place with ugly odd just for spreading your money and risk. Anyway everyone say that pinny never ban you or limit you so why cant I use only it? I just wanted to know how patience they can be with a winning player long term.

Second I swear to god all my stats are veridic and honest. I have a log book with all my bet/odd/money/win/lost. I dont claim that I will always hit that but for my first season I was impress. My worse month was +2 unit and my best one +12 and the worse one was at the beginning when I was starting. I dont say that Im sure its gonna work, I see the possibility and ask if its really possible or I just got a lot of luck for 8 monthes.

Ganchrow your post was really helpful and I thank you. I know a little bit of probability that I learned in university but not as you for sure. For the capital I think its pretty stupid thinking that if I do (example) 4000$ a month I will all spend it. I will spend like 50% and save the rest for losing streak. I think its some basic things to do, maybe some people have a lot of discipline problem here but I dont have any.

50 000$ was for starting I dont say that I will live on that 20 years, I dont care to wait 5 years to get like 250 000$. But the basic of the theory is that if you can do 5+ unit by monthes its gonna work in long term if you have a good bankroll and a safety bankroll for living.

But im pretty confuse Ganchrow, that with your knowledge you cant beat the system, you seem to know very well statistic and probability and I think that handicapping is 50% maths 25% luck 25% Bank management and self management. So I think that if someone like you cant do it without a good reason I overated my edge.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AspeK

But im pretty confuse Ganchrow, that with your knowledge you cant beat the system, you seem to know very well statistic and probability and I think that handicapping is 50% maths 25% luck 25% Bank management and self management. So I think that if someone like you cant do it without a good reason I overated my edge.

5% edge (although in all fairness you did only claim 55% win probability) over 1,500 plays during a single season is a highly impressive result. Based upon your stated inexperience with sports betting and probability let's just say I'm highly skeptical that you could just dive right and produce results such as these.

Realize I'm not making any personal judgments here, or casting aspersions at your character, I'm just saying that from the paucity of facts at hand I suspect you may be overlooking a key point in your analysis.

If you like please feel free to post a spreadsheet with results for your 1,500 wagers including the line at which you bet, the opposing line (if you have it), the amount you bet, and the result of the bet. I could toss it in to my Mone Carlo program and I could tell you just how likely your results are the product of chance.

[AspeK]

Over units is more important than the percentage of winning. Because I can bet -200 to +400. But when you look at it the average will be pretty close to even. The way I cap is that I do my personnal line and if I see a edge on a side I take it. Oddmaker in hockey lower a lot the favorite one sometimes and thats the way I get a lot of winning edge. Hockey is pretty unpredictable and square sometime can blind bet a -300 just because everyone say they are better.

But im curious about yourself do you bet a lot? Are you winning? Or you finnaly saw that its worthless to try to do it seriously?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AspeK

Over units is more important than the percentage of winning. Because I can bet -200 to +400. But when you look at it the average will be pretty close to even. The way I cap is that I do my personnal line and if I see a edge on a side I take it. Oddmaker in hockey lower a lot the favorite one sometimes and thats the way I get a lot of winning edge. Hockey is pretty unpredictable and square sometime can blind bet a -300 just because everyone say they are better.

Of course. I was just simplifying. But if you're looking for advice you need to give me something here (units up/down are useless for analysis such as this). If not a list of your bets, how about ROI and average line?

Originally Posted by AspeK

But im curious about yourself do you bet a lot? Are you winning? Or you finnaly saw that its worthless to try to do it seriously?

We do this a for a living.

[Dark Horse]

It's much easier to make money in the stock market. The problem with sports betting is the relatively small amount of money in circulation.

If you read what kind of hoops Billy Walters has to jump through just to get enough action on a game (The Smart Money by Konik), it's obvious that the ceiling of sports betting is infinitely lower than in the stock market.

Plus the stock market has a much greater sophistication in the type of bets you want to place.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

It's much easier to make money in the stock market. The problem with sports betting is the relatively small amount of money in circulation.

The real difference for the vast majority of people is that anyone can expect to make money in the stock market just buying and holding.

In sports betting there's no similarly easy path.

[AspeK]

Maybe, but you need to know stock market and having some contacts inside is a major plus. I mean doing stock market for me is like betting on tennis I know nothing on that except what the average public knows.

And stock market is more really long term compare to sport bettings. But I admit I know close to nothing in that and thats why my perception is not the best.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AspeK

Maybe, but you need to know stock market and having some contacts inside is a major plus. I mean doing stock market for me is like betting on tennis I know nothing on that except what the average public knows.

And stock market is more really long term compare to sport bettings. But I admit I know close to nothing in that and thats why my perception is not the best.

You don't need to know anything about the stock market to expect to make money over the long-term.

Just buy an index fund or an ETF.

[20Four7]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

The real difference for the vast majority of people is that anyone can expect to make money in the stock market just buying and holding.

In sports betting there's no similarly easy path.

But do you keep ahead of inflation. There is no easy path to sports betting/horse betting/poker playing etc. But sometimes (even in a bull market) your better off trading than buying and holding. An example is denny's or apple which I bought and sold for an 15% profit then rebought after the downswing. Very rarely can you do that with a sports bet, although party bets will allow you to sell your bet for a loss if the line has move LOL.

[Dark Horse]

Originally Posted by AspeK

Maybe, but you need to know stock market and having some contacts inside is a major plus. I mean doing stock market for me is like betting on tennis I know nothing on that except what the average public knows.

And stock market is more really long term compare to sport bettings. But I admit I know close to nothing in that and thats why my perception is not the best.

It's about time invested and lifestyle.

To do sports betting well requires a major investment of time. That same time invested in the stock market is likely to be much more profitable for the majority of people.

Sports betting is more romantic, no doubt. But look around you. How many people have made their fortune betting on sports?

[AspeK]

I think and thats my personnal opinion that for a normal person its easier and more probable to double a bankroll betting 2.5% of your bankroll in a sport you really know than to put it on the stock market. Im pretty sure its less risky on the sport betting.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by 20Four7

But do you keep ahead of inflation. There is no easy path to sports betting/horse betting/poker playing etc. But sometimes (even in a bull market) your better off trading than buying and holding. An example is denny's or apple which I bought and sold for an 15% profit then rebought after the downswing. Very rarely can you do that with a sports bet, although party bets will allow you to sell your bet for a loss if the line has move LOL.

Yes. You do expect to keep ahead of inflation.

An individual investor certainly can make money trading in and out of positions, but unless he or she has exceptionally keen insight into a particular industry that aren't shared by market professionals, over the long run he's most likely going to be better off just buying and holding.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by AspeK

I think and thats my personnal opinion that for a normal person its easier and more probable to double a bankroll betting 2.5% of your bankroll in a sport you really know than to put it on the stock market. Im pretty sure its less risky on the sport betting.

I'd suggest that you're exceedingly mistaken.

[durito]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

It's about time invested and lifestyle.

To do sports betting well requires a major investment of time. That same time invested in the stock market is likely to be much more profitable for the majority of people.

Sports betting is more romantic, no doubt. But look around you. How many people have made their fortune betting on sports?

It just depends. The expect roi from a 55% bettor is a lot better than that from someone buying and holding an index fund. If you are talking about being a trader, remember you are up against banks and hedge funs with thousands of phd's and computers researching stuff for them daily.

[AspeK]

So why you and a lot of peoples are losing time handicaping sport then?

[durito]

Originally Posted by AspeK

I think and thats my personnal opinion that for a normal person its easier and more probable to double a bankroll betting 2.5% of your bankroll in a sport you really know than to put it on the stock market. Im pretty sure its less risky on the sport betting.

I disagree completely.

[Sam Odom]

I think every gambler should try it once! Living only off of gambling winning$ that is... Build-up a bankroll quit your job and move to Las Vegas and see if you have what it takes.