If it's so easy to win, if everything is planned like you said it's going to be, why are there still fricking tons of sportsbook out there?
Why 99% of people are longterm losers?
I'm not saying that it's impossible, but just
think.
| Poster's Sportsbook Poll: 2011View Poll Results | ||
| # 1 5Dimes | 450 total points | 5Dimes Review |
| # 2 Pinnacle | 408 total points | Pinnacle Review |
| # 3 Heritage | 227 total points | Heritage Review |
| # 4 Bookmaker | 138 total points | Bookmaker Review |
| # 5 BetIslands | 129 total points | BetIslands Review |
| SBR Top-Rated SportsbooksRecommended List | ||
| Pinnacle Sports | SBR Rating A+ | Pinnacle Sports Review |
| 5Dimes | SBR Rating A+ | 5Dimes Review |
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| Legends | SBR Rating A+ | Legends Review |
| Bodog | SBR Rating A | Bodog Review |
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05-09-07 03:19 AM #36
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05-09-07 10:28 AM #37
I'd have to agree. If you calculated a gambler's win percentage over his lifetime, he'd most likely come out on the negative. It should be for recreational purposes only, as it is more for the high. Of course you want to win, but the odds are stacked against you almost all the time. Those big, glitzy glamorous hotels in Vegas stay in business for a reason.
Originally Posted by 707782
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05-09-07 10:30 AM #38
I know lots of players who are smart enough to win 54% of their plays. I've seen more than one go belly-up due to lack of discipline. If they are winning (or losing) they raise their bet size higher than is justifiable. I've seen winning players kill themselves in the online casinos, live casinos, or going in tilt.
I can't emphasize how important it is to keep your cool, whether you're winning or losing.
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05-09-07 11:46 AM #39
Can I take you up on that offer? I've been trying to determine if my results this past hockey season were significant or not, but I'm not sure how to go about it. I've managed a 55.48% winning percent over 566 bets, with the average odds at 2.04. Originally Posted by Ganchrow
My records don't have the opposing line, and my unit size was 5% of my bankroll (not sure if that will work with your program or not)
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05-09-07 11:50 AM #40
Why don't you post a spreadsheet with what you've got? Originally Posted by MagicBeerBelly
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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05-09-07 12:04 PM #41
Here ya go, and thanks for the help. It's actually a CSV file, but I changed the extension so I could upload it.
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05-09-07 12:21 PM #42
Originally Posted by AspeK
Pinnacle won't boot you! I beat their week opening numbers all the time for 2-3x limit bets in college hoops. Never once did I get scolded or my limits reduced.
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05-09-07 01:02 PM #43
A few questions: Originally Posted by MagicBeerBelly
1) Are these bets that you determined you would have placed, or did you actually place ALL of these bets?
2) Is this the first season you've kept these records?
3) When did you record these? When you decided to make them, when the game started, or after the game started?
4) Where and how did you record these?SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005
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05-09-07 01:53 PM #44
1) I placed all of these bets, sort of. One of my rules was that if the odds were less than 1.7, I would instead take the regulation only (-.5) line or -1.5 puckline if the regulation line was also below 1.7. Originally Posted by Ganchrow
Since the file contains the actual recommendations from the program I wrote, testing them will be testing the program. I can elaborate more if you like.
2) Yes this is the first season I've kept records. It's also the first season I've taken a more serious approach to betting on hockey. Been a recreational bettor for about 8-9 years.
3) I would run the evening's games through my program before the games started and place my bets usually around 4-5 hours beforehand. Each game produces some output (including a recommended bet, or 'no bet'), and the output from all the days in the season was parsed to produce most of the attached file. At season's end when I was beginning to analyze the results, I wrote a program to download the game results (final scores) and merge them into my reports.
4) I think I answered this in #3 above, but the file I attached was generated from the reports that were created each day.
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05-09-07 02:34 PM #45
Pinnacle has a default wagering limit which applies to everyone. If they determine that you're especially juicy, they'll raise it, but noone gets lowered (unless you cheat). Originally Posted by Helmut
Good to see you at SBR, Helmut. I'm a big fan of your CC appearances.Last edited by RickySteve; 05-09-07 at 03:30 PM. Reason: poorly worded
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05-09-07 02:58 PM #46
Whats that mean? Raising the minimun never heard that before
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05-09-07 03:14 PM #47
He said raising the minimum limit, ie the maximum bet. Pinnacle's minimum is $1 for everyone I believe. Originally Posted by AspeK
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05-09-07 03:32 PM #48
Good to see you too Helmut....i like your political commentary and emphasis on NCAAB totals....
SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005
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05-09-07 03:33 PM #49
This is wrong. If you live in the US, they will definitely lower your max to less than $1. Originally Posted by RickySteve
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05-09-07 05:28 PM #50
Speaking of juicy... Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG
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05-10-07 06:20 AM #51
Are you implying that I am juicy? Ok yes, I'll cop to it, yes I am a little juicy. Am I even more than a little juicy? Perhaps, yes. But am I the juiciest poster on SBR? No. In fact, actually, interestingly enough, curiously, ironically, fascinatingly, interestingly, I can actually think of one poster on SBR juicier than I am, and his name is RickySteve. Originally Posted by RickySteve
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05-11-07 08:52 AM #52
when your min is lower than 1, pinnacle is telling you to take the money out and leave.
but i did bet on a event 3 weeks before the start and pinnacle opened the line with max of 10 cents USD. and i tookthe huge favorite (-400)...and i placed the bet for fun and i won 3 cents. my 10 cents bet moved the line from -400 to -410
i should try to bet 1000 times...oh well, that was the only time i saw that low limit.
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05-11-07 09:36 AM #53
I bet we've all had streaks where we thought "this is easy...I could do this for a living!" I once parlayed $500 into balance of $14,000 in about two months. I had that same thought. Then I cashed out $10K and lost the rest and had to reload.
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05-11-07 12:05 PM #54
Always take some profits off the table.
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08-17-11 06:02 AM #55 beating "the bookie"
When you win a bet at the track, did you beat the track? No. You beat the odds. The track pays you from the other bets. It's the same with sports books. Originally Posted by crackerjack
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08-17-11 07:54 AM #56
50k is not much of a bankroll at all to be doing this for a living? Originally Posted by BuddyBear
Come on guys, 50k is a good number to make a living at this. Let's say you bet %2 each game. It means you're betting 1k each game. If you make 50 Units over a year, it makes 50k. 50k/year should be enough to cover your living expenses..
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08-17-11 08:43 AM #57
This thread is over 4 years old.
But some obviously incorrect points. if you start with 50K and bet 2% on your fitst bet you are then down to 49k. If you bet 1000 on the next play that is more than 2%. If you have 5 games going at one and you go 0-5 you then have 45000 left. So 2% of that is 900 per play, so after 5 plays you have already dropped your bet amount and bankroll 10%. So it is then going to take you that much longer just to get even.
Every system I have ever seen where people talk about doing this for a living always assumes the best. Or at least starting out winning more than you lose. Which is a bad assumption.
Betting 2% is also not a great idea. 1% is best, but starting with a bank roll makes it more plausible. And even then you can have 12-15% of your bankroll in play at any given time which is also risky, but going 0-12 or 0-15 is a lot more difficult than going 0-5. So it spreads out the variance.
Ultimately anyone that thinks theyre smart enough to do it for a living isnt going to take advice from anyone. Unless they have gone broke a few times trying and are looking for what they have done wrong.
But you also have to factor in withdrawing living expenses, your 'salary', fees to withdraw, and any other miscellaneous expenses you might have to pay for. While your bank roll wont be your entire net worth it will be the way you make your money. So without a job it represents your life basically. So thinking you will double it in a year is foolishness. If you dont make any money the first month. Or even lose money and need 2500 to pay expenses your bankroll is already down to at most 47500. If after 2 months you make a small profit (a thousand bux)and need that same 2500 you are down to 45500 or so. And so on and so forth. To grow your bankroll you have to out profit your expenses, and it isnt very easy to do unless you live at home or mooch off someone and are just a leech.
I did it, I know what it takes, thats why I know most of the stories people tell are fairy tales, and sound like stuff people without a clue would think. Because they never did it, or more than liekly never had enough money to even try it.
But even in 07 it was going to be pretty hard to do it, right now it would be damn near impossible. At least running any sound money management risk aversion strategy. Fees have gone up 10 fold, there are maximum withdrawals these days and most places have minimum. So they have you bent over. Your window at most places is between 500-2500, you want more tough shit, or you pay anther fee. No more free monthly withdrawals, no more free book to book transfers, you pay for everything. Those things will eat you alive, a lot more than vig ever thought of, over the long haul.
And that doesnt even account for the way books are all connected now (even more than then) with clone lines, shitty limits, moving on air to stop anyone from even getting a nickle scalp, etc etc etc.
Sportsbetting now, unless you have a credit shop or a bookie you can trust is not a very good career right now, hasnt been for a few years. At least not in the U.S. Unless you want to take chances with getting accounts in some places that dont take US customers, but then you have to worry about getting paid if you beat them for enough. Because while most might pay small time US players off that they know live in the US and have fake addresses to bet with them, paying off multiple 5 figure withdrawals (what you need to make a living) might start getting tiresome, and they will just non pay you and boot you. Which will most definitely kill your ROI.
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08-17-11 11:28 AM #58
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