[cwsulzba]

Here is the Deal, I need to make 2600 dollars fast. So I am doing a four game parlay. This is going to decide a lot of things for my life.

Now please do not tell me how hard parlays are and how I am a fool, because I know those things. I am just looking for some opinions on the games that I chose.

[503] G ST GM1+5-130 (Game Date:05/07/07- Game Time:4:10 PM[905]

ASTROSAction-140 Game Date:05/07/07- Game Time:5:05 PM[908]

BREWERS C CAPUANO -L/M CHICO -L-1½-125Game Date:05/07/07- Game Time:4:05 PM[918]

YANKEESM DESALVO -R/M BATISTA -R-1½+110(Replaced this game with New Jersey + tomorrow night

Risking:$225To Win:$2354.54 (Only pays out 2150 now with the change)

Now, for my reasoning.

I love Golden State. I bought an extra point. I think they are going to win outright, and if not I hope they can cover a 5 point cushion.

The Brewers (-1.5) are hot and the Nats are bad and cold. Capuano is playin well and Chico is not. Brewers -1.5

Astros ML, I chose this because of Oswalt, and being from Minnesota I know Kyle Lohse sucks. I had to tack this game on. Oswalt has gaudy numbers against the Reds for whatever reason.

Yankees (-1.5) I chose the Yankees because they are playing very well, I know they are starting a rookie, but I figure it will be like the World Series for him and he should get run support against Miguel Bautista. I figure if the Yanks win it will be by 2 or more.

So good luck to me, please let me know what you think and please pray for me.

[jjgold]

Yankee game scares me, if they win you win the parlay. I hope you nail it pal.

Pressure betting like this is not good and does not have happy endings.

[cwsulzba]

Just wanted to do one more post to get to 200.

I know it is hard enough to get one right when you need to let alone 4. I am pretty much done.

JJ, I read on line that DeSalvo had like a 6 ERA in the minors last year, so I called and changed the game to New Jersey +5 for tomorrow night. It pays a little less, but I like it better.

[Ganchrow]

Here is the Deal, I need to make 2600 dollars fast. So I am doing a four game parlay. This is going to decide a lot of things for my life.

Now please do not tell me how hard parlays are and how I am a fool, because I know those things. I am just looking for some opinions on the games that I chose.

If coming up with $2,600 is really that important, I'd suggest speaking to friends or family and try to borrow the money.

I think you yourself probably realize that betting a 4-team parlay to come up with sorely needed funds is probably not the wisest of decisions.

[Sam Odom]

I know it is hard enough to get one right...

Bingo ! But good luck

[cwsulzba]

Asking friends and family is going to be my next step.

[bigboydan]

Asking friends and family is going to be my next step.

I think you should go with "plan B" before your "plan A" sir.

I wish you the best of luck with your play tonight

[Ganchrow]

Asking friends and family is going to be my next step.

I'm guessing it's probably too late to change your mind on this parlay, but with all due respect, this appears to me to be a textbook case of "unhealthy gambling".

Just be careful -- it's probably not a good idea to try to gamble your way out of a large hole by making a a single do or die bet -- and that goes for recreational players and amateurs. Even if you do have edge on the bet (and you very well might), your edge wouldn't be anywhere near the amount you need to make and as such you'd still just be making a wild gamble.

As long as you have other options (and it sounds like you do), those are probably the options you should be pursuing first.

You probably want to hold off on the 11:1 long shot until you hear the trigger cocked.

[The HG]

Sorry to read about your situation cws. But this is really not a wise thing to do. Gambling serves 2 legitimate purposes only: entertainment for hobbyists, and income for measured and prudent professionals. I know everyone knows this, but it bears repeating. I suppose the old $100,000 operation examples might be a time when you might want to do a $100 8-team parlay, but in real-world situations, there are almost always many much wiser long-term options than doing what you're doing.

Having said that, if I had to do a 4-bet parlay like you're doing, I'd wait a few days to see if better opportunities than taking Houston on the road as a sizable fave or the Yankees as a big fave with a questionable first-time big league starter present themselves.

[BuddyBear]

Good luck but this is an extraordinarily poor way to try pay off debts or whatever you need the money for.

You should consider and prepare that you may actually might be in a worst or more dire position by the end of the night than you are currently in right now

[jjgold]

Hey guy let me know if you need cash. I have used some sharks in the past that are pretty nice most of the time, I would only use as a last resort though and don't really recomend it.

[cwsulzba]

My book let me trade the Yankees game for the Nets +5 tommorw night, it pays a little less, but that is fine.

[buztah]

GL, cws. I've been there too, pal. I'll be rooting for you.

[RickySteve]

Astros ML is OK.

Warriors bet is neutral to slightly bad.

The runlines are horrid.

[cwsulzba]

Thanks for the help guys, I changed my Yankees play because of you. I like the Brewers moneyline RickySteve, I think you are wrong about that. Have a good night everyone.

[compaqDikk]

so what's the current ticket cws?

words of wisdom from JJ:

"I like the feeling of betting nickels when I do not have a fukkin dime to my name. Never thought at 38 would look this banged up and into sharks for 45 dimes approx "

[Halo]

I need to make 2600 dollars fast. So I am doing a four game parlay.

Okay I don't understand the logic here. Now your going to need $2800 fast...

Parlays are a waste of money, they should be played for fun, and a small percentage of your bankroll at that.

[Ganchrow]

Parlays are a waste of money, they should be played for fun, and a small percentage of your bankroll at that.

I've said it before and I'll say it again ... parlays should be an integral part of the strategy of any advantage bettor who wagers on multiple games simultaneously.

[BuddyBear]

I think Ganch is referring to correlated parlays....just picking teams independent of one another is real tough

[Ganchrow]

I think Ganch is referring to correlated parlays....just picking teams independent of one another is real tough

Correlated parlays of course provide betting edge beyond that of the constituent bets alone, although that was not the concept to which I was referring.

If you're an advantage player placing two or more independent bets simultaneously then basic principles of bankroll risk management and growth maximization dictate that a certain portion of what you wager should be placed on every possible parlay that can be constructed from your selected bets.

In practice, for a bankroll growth maximizer, your parlay bets will generally be quite small, and in fact in most cases 3-or-more-team parlays can safely be ignored. In general, the amount wagered on parlays as a fraction of that wagered on singles should increase with the number of simultaneous bets, the edge on, and the degree of favorite-ness of those bets.

[cwsulzba]

After 3 Golden State is up by, I hope this goes through. It will be fun to watch the nets tomorrow night if those goes well.

[LT Profits]

OWNED,

This isn't Ganchrow, but I believe he means every possible TWO-TEAM parlay, regardless of the amount of simultaneous plays. For confirmation, play with his tool.

Um, let me rephrase!

Play with his Kelly Calculator.

http://bettingtools.sbrforum.com/newcalc/

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++

Ganchrow,

Is favorite-ness in the dictionary?

[BuddyBear]

After 3 Golden State is up by, I hope this goes through. It will be fun to watch the nets tomorrow night if those goes well.

watch? Are you crazy...you hedge the bet. forget watching bro....don't put yourself through torture tomorrow.

[ShamsWoof10]

I agree totally.. hedge it which does two things: Saves you stress and at the very least if you hedge the original amount you'll at least have another chance at a parlay... Look what happen to the Yankees... Take the gift from god...

[cwsulzba]

OK, I got all three right, I can not believe I bought that extra point on Golden State. I have one game left of my parlay and it is tomorrow night. Go New Jersey +5.

[Razz]

I would not hedge. The only possible hedging I would suggest is to do it at halftime if NJ is ahead. Then you have a middle along with guaranteed profit.

If you do hedge, you basically cost yourself money by including the Nets +5 in the parlay to begin with.

Correct.

[cwsulzba]

I agree.

[cwsulzba]

Hedging is a possibility though, Ill have to sleep on it. Thanks guys.

[rjt721]

Good thing you replaced your Yankees play.

If you need cash as much as you say, I would strongly suggest hedging the bet and taking the guaranteed money. No need to risk losing everything if NJ lets you down. Whatever you decide, good luck.