[Sam Odom]

"I usually bet 1-2 units but hey, tonight I'm betting 10 UNITS on..."



How many times have you heard that one?

A fool and his money are soon parted

[bigboydan]

Ok fool... I mean Sam. What are you betting tonight

[Sam Odom]

Fool here !

How can one gm have 10x more expected value than say the avg game one bets on?

[Stumpage]

Originally Posted by Sam Odom

Fool here !

How can one gm have 10x more expected value than say the avg game one bets on?

I guess if it's the *Can't Miss 10 star lock of the Century* or something to that effect. That's at least how I remember a fairly well-known sports handicapper referring to the St. Louis Rams to nuke the New England Patriots straight up in the Super Bowl a few years back, the one ending with Vinateri's last second winning Field Goal.

Can't recall the exact wording, but it was something along the lines of "If you have a chance to pick up some extra money for free, you might as well take it."

[Sam Odom]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

What are you betting tonight

Just for the hell of it I may bet Wash. Nationals

[rmcaj]

Originally Posted by Sam Odom

Fool here !

How can one gm have 10x more expected value than say the avg game one bets on?

Theres a lot of things that can factor in to wanting to place a higher bet on a certain game. There could be someone injured for the other team, a great feel for the game, good information on the game, etc...

A lot of people change the amount of money they put on games for various reasons. Sometimes all you need is just a great read and feeling on a game to make it happen.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Sam Odom

"I usually bet 1-2 units but hey, tonight I'm betting 10 UNITS on..."

How many times have you heard that one?

A fool and his money are soon parted

I'd point out that from a risk management perspective, if you were to risk 1 unit on a bet at at +100, it would be sensible (assuming the same edge on all bets) to risk 0.1 units on a bet at +1,000 and 10 units on a bet at -1,000.

[Sam Odom]

Originally Posted by Stumpage

I guess if it's the *Can't Miss 10 star lock of the Century* or something to that effect.

'10 star locks' are not sensational enough any longer -- I hear the fools touting '75-100 dimes lock' now a days.

But the purpose of this thread is about the stupidity of avg joe betting 10units on an April baseball gm.

[Sam Odom]

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'd point out that from a risk management perspective...

Ganchrow, if or when YOU post a 10unit play I may pay extra attention to it

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by Sam Odom

Ganchrow, if or when YOU post a 10unit play I may pay extra attention to it

While I do appreciate the vote of confidence, the point is that if an advantage player generally risks 1 unit on +100 events of given edge, then he should in general be risking 10 units on -1,000 events with the same edge.

[jjgold]

If Ganch posted plays and lets assume football and baskets he would eventually end up around 52% if he was good and most would hit between 47%-50%.

It is all stats 101.

Point spreads in reality are coin flips as you have aprox a 50% chance to win the bet whether you are a pro or a coin flipper.

I know Ganch way back when he was living in Hollis Queens.

[doc]

If the edge is there I have no problem with it but i will say that most of the time when you see this it is auto fade time.

[Sam Odom]

Classic Post :

http://forum.sbrforum.com/basketball...ml-tonite.html