Verizon Heritage

crackerjack · 04-11-2007, 01:14 PM

Any thoughts on the Verizon Heritage tournament? Looking for insights on matchups... I will post my predictions tonight in this thread.

crackerjack · 04-11-2007, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crackerjack

Any thoughts on the Verizon Heritage tournament? Looking for insights on matchups... I will post my predictions tonight in this thread.

No one has any opinions?

Here are my best bets...

Chris Dimarco to make cut -190 (@the Greek)
Dimarco isn't in top form but he hasn't played too badly either. He has made six of seven cuts this year. THe only cut he missed was last week at the Masters, and he only missed that cut by one stroke. He should make the top half of this tournament where a lot of the tour's top players are sitting out. I have him as better than 2-1 to make this cut...

3Ball - Ogilvy +110 over Purdy/Z Johnson @Bowmans
I have Purdy as a huge fade this tournament. Plus, Johnson could be in for a big mental letdown after his huge win last week at the masters. Ogilvy is playing well. He would have been in contention at the Masters were in not for a third round 81. He is three top 10 finishes in eight tourneys this year.

TOurnament matchups
Justin Rose -105 over Stewart Cink @Thegreek
I actually have Justin Rose as a contender to win this tournament. He is in top form with top five finishes his last two tournament. I am also taking him over A Baddeley, who won this tournament last year, at -130.

G Ogilvy +100 over E Els @Thegreek
I really like Ogilvy in this tournament and Els is still a few months from being back to full form following his surgery. Generally I like to bet against peopel I think will miss the cut but although I think Els will make the cut, he will not have a great tournament. Ogilvy will be in contention come Sunday.

Once WSEX puts up their lines (not sure why it takes them so long) I will come back with a few first round matchups.

Good luck!
CJ

crackerjack · 04-11-2007, 09:37 PM

I am adding Justin Rose +105 over Palmer/Mahan.

WSEX still hasn't posted first round matchups yet (11 p.m. EST), but I do like these two matchups found at Bowmans:

Brett Wetterich -125 over John Senden
Jose Coceres -125 over Heath Slocum

The juice is too high at Bowmans so if I can find these elsewhere I will take them. I do like WSEX because you are giving or getting a half stroke which keeps the line down a bit when betting the favorite.

crackerjack · 04-12-2007, 12:53 PM

Boy when Willie Bee said there wasn't a lot of interest on this forum in golf betting, he wasn't kidding...

Anyone know why Justin Rose pulled out of the tournament? Bummer...although better he WD before teeing off rather than after. Plus, Cink had a decent first round...

Tchocky · 04-12-2007, 01:09 PM

Try eog.com or therx.com; they may have more golf cappers.

crackerjack · 04-12-2007, 06:30 PM

1-1 on first round matchups, but had some bad luck. Wetterich notched two double bogeys and two bogeys on his final five holes and got beat by Senden by a stroke. Went from -3 to +3 just like that. Is that a bad beat?! Probably doesn't qualify but it feels like one as I'd already counted it as a win! Bummer...

Looking at second hole matchups now. Need some good ones as Dimarco probably won't make the cut and Ogilvy will have a tough time beating Els. My 3Ball bet is still in action though.

crackerjack · 04-13-2007, 08:08 AM

Okay, I found a couple matchups I like for the second round. Get on these!

J Kelly over J Parnevik -1/2 -104 (WSEX)
Kelly will have a tough time repeating his performance from round 1 but he is playing well.

J Gore over L Glover +1/2 +122
This is a pure value bet. Gore was -1 while Glover was +4 and I usually avoid these type of traps. But getting a half stroke at +122 is to tempting.

I am also looking at Cink (-1/2 -122) over Calcavecchia. Cink had a decent first day and I am not big on Calcavecchia. He did shoot -2 in round 1 but I feel he will be even at best today. If Cink can shoot a sub-par round, he should prevail.

abacus30 · 04-13-2007, 04:32 PM

CJack - Just saw your thread. I just started putting a little action on 3-ball for the first time last week with the Masters. Definitely makes golf a lot more interesting to watch on my new HD TV. Put up your 3rd round thoughts tomorrow if you get a chance. Thanks!

crackerjack · 04-14-2007, 07:27 AM

I really need good third/fourth rounds. I am 2-2 (2-3 if you count my lean on Cink over Calcavecchia)

Third round matchups

I found a pretty good scalp on Boo Weekley vs Vaughn Taylor
Boo Weekley +155 (the greek)
Vaughn Taylor -1/2 -108 (wsex)

I probably won't take the risk on this one because a tie means both bets lose. Personally, I love Vaughn Taylor in this spot. He's playing well and is the better golfer. There's a reason he's a big favorite at thegreek and giving a half stroke doesn't bother me.

Also really like these two:
Dean Wilson +1/2 -132 over Nathan Green
Sean OHair +1/2 -132 over Kevin Na

O'Hair over Na is my best bet of the afternoon...

If you are really brave and think Els is going to choke, sell some shares of him at WSEX. A three point lead is solid and Els is playing well but he could collapse. Or conversely (and the better play), if you think he'll win, you could buy a few shares of him. Thegreek has him a -220 but you get much better odds if you buy shares at wsex.

kalmikrazy · 04-14-2007, 08:03 AM

Jack what are some solid A rated books for golf. I am using Greek, but their 3 ball ONLY on 1st and 2nd round is not good for me. I need some top books that have head to head matchup for each round.

By the way, this is what I have for the Verizon so far:
Play of the Week(Always bet the whole tourn matchup for 2 times the amount i do on round to round matchups):

902 Ernie Els +115 vs. Jim Furyk (WILL BE A W)

1st Round Matchup :

321 Justin Rose(+105) vs. Mahan/Palmer (VOID - ROSE WD)
334 Chris DiMarco(+145) vs. Triplett/Verplank (LOSS)

Second Round:

356 Geoff Ogilvy(+115) over Johnson/Purdy (PUSH)

Third Round:

145 Rod Pampling(+110) over Aaron Baddeley (PENDING)

jjgold · 04-14-2007, 03:56 PM

most books take little golf action so you do not see much offered

not really a good sport to bet

crackerjack · 04-14-2007, 04:31 PM

I disagree about it not being a good sport to bet. Because it's not highly popular, you can regularly find soft lines. If you like golf and follow the PGA then it's a great sport to bet...

Nice call on Pampling. I went 1-1 and lost my best bet, losing some juice. I need a 2-0 day tomorrow just to break even for this tournament. But before this weekend, I was notching at least +3 units per tournament this year.

I play mostly at thegreek and wsex. The offerings aren't great but the juice isn't bad. You can find some good matchups at bookmaker, but it's a 30 cent line. I'd stay away from it. I do agree that it would be nice if thegreek would offer some head-to-head matchups for the first two rounds and wsex needs to offer more matchups (and get their lines out earlier...).

crackerjack · 04-15-2007, 10:47 AM

I am taking these two:
Carl Petterson -1/2 +108 over Jason Bohn
Boo Weekley +1/2 -112 over Zach Johnson

Zach looked like he was getting tired yesterday. I think fatigue finally takes it's toll. I have Petterson ranked higher on this course than Bohn and it's decent value...

Good luck! I really need to go 2-0 with these picks.

crackerjack · 04-16-2007, 12:19 PM

Nice 2-0 record for the final round, even if I had to sweat it an extra day. My worst tournament of the year, but I still finished even. I'll have to check my records but final rounds have been extremely good to me.

Maybe I can convert some more golf bettors. Look for my picks next week at the Zurich Classic...