[jjgold]

How does he lose?

[hawk 5]

No use even teeing it up.

[mavs1978]

i hope not.. i played the field against him plus +125 at some point yesterday

[vanzack]

I agree JJ.

I bought him at +115 yesterday with about 3 holes left.

I think he is an absolute steal at -110 or whatever you can get him at now close to that price.

Look - nothing is a lock - but if Tiger Woods is in this exact position 10 times he wins the tournament at least 8 of those times.

[kdmfox]

He's -215 now.

[mavs1978]

vanzack.. what are you talking about? then why is tiger only even money to win.. lets give some possibilties

1. sportsbooks are giving away money this easter
2. the betting public is so heavily against tiger that the line has removed to rediculous value

no... and heck no.. every square i know has loaded the boat on tiger this weekend...

i am making a huge play on the field at +125.. the line always tells a story and this easter it reads tigers loses..

[mavs1978]

and kdm fox he still -112 at wsex and matchbook

[kalmikrazy]

I would be shocked if he were too lose. But im going with Wetterich +140 over Pampling. Already at +2.64 units at the Masters, so its worth a shot.

[vanzack]

vanzack.. what are you talking about? then why is tiger only even money to win.. lets give some possibilties

1. sportsbooks are giving away money this easter
2. the betting public is so heavily against tiger that the line has removed to rediculous value

no... and heck no.. every square i know has loaded the boat on tiger this weekend...

i am making a huge play on the field at +125.. the line always tells a story and this easter it reads tigers loses..

Well then call me a square.

I actually think its the opposite. I think the squares are the ones that think "I get 5 or 6 guys vs Tiger at even money - that sounds good".

Just tell me this. In Majors, when Tiger is within 1 stroke of the lead going in to the final day - what is his record?

Im going to guess. I would say its 95%. Can anyone dig this up? I absolutely guaran****ingtee you that its above -115.

[Razz]

Well then call me a square.

I actually think its the opposite. I think the squares are the ones that think "I get 5 or 6 guys vs Tiger at even money - that sounds good".

Just tell me this. In Majors, when Tiger is within 1 stroke of the lead going in to the final day - what is his record?

Im going to guess. I would say its 95%. Can anyone dig this up? I absolutely guaran****ingtee you that its above -115.

It's 0% when he isn't leading or tied for the lead.

[mavs1978]

vanzack.. you are correct.. hes almost unbeatable...thats what makes this line so suspicious

[vanzack]

In fact - I would love to bet a prop that Tiger wins by 3+ strokes today when its all over. If someone would offer something like +250 I would pound it.

Mavs - Im just going with history here. We have seen this situation many many many times before. In majors, on the final day, tiger gets better and everyone else gets worse. It happens over and over and over.

Tiger will finish at -1 and the closest to him might be one of the other big players like Mickelson or Goosen at like +4.

GL today, but I think your field bet will be over by the 9th hole.

[vanzack]

It's 0% when he isn't leading or tied for the lead.

He really hasnt won a tournament when he had to come from behind on the final day?

[Razz]

He really hasnt won a tournament when he had to come from behind on the final day?

Not a major.

[vanzack]

I guess the question is:

Has Tiger ever been 1 stroke back in a major entering the final day? And if so, did he lose? Was this in the last 8 years or so?

What is his record in majors if he is tied or leading?

Thanks

[vanzack]

Not a major.

So Im just assuming that he has never been 1 stroke back entering the final day so he is 0-0?

Is that right?

[Razz]

To part a, I don't think so. He's been within reach a couple times, but never the non-leading favorite.
Part b, 100%. 12-0.

[mavs1978]

i think the more important question is whats his record in majors when playing in the final group on sunday? goooood

keep in mind im making a case for the field today.. with my reverse logic.. in making my case for the field it does look like tiger should win.. i just dropped another 2k on the field and puked in the toilet at the same time

[vanzack]

To part a, I don't think so. He's been within reach a couple times, but never the non-leading favorite.
Part b, 100%. 12-0.

12-0 is pretty good, and today he is so close to the lead that I will take my chances.

Thanks for the stats.

[vanzack]

i think the more important question is whats his record in majors when playing in the final group on sunday? goooood

keep in mind im making a case for the field today.. with my reverse logic.. in making my case for the field it does look like tiger should win.. i just dropped another 2k on the field and puked in the toilet at the same time

GL today mavs.

Reverse logic seems to work - in every case except for Tiger Woods. He is one of the few constants in sports. I never want to bet a favorite like him - but honestly Tiger is insane.

GL and happy Easter.

[jjgold]

The presence of Woods will make all wilt today under pressure

This is a big time event somewhat like a superbowl

[mavs1978]

i jsut took more of the field vs tiger at -150.. dont think its his day

[rjt721]

Let's go Retief Goosen. Got him at 30-1 to win after round 3. 1 shot lead through 11.

[mavs1978]

very sharp..gl on that

[vanzack]

Here comes tiger.

Eagle at 13 puts him 2 back.

This is not what I expected but I feel good about it once again.

[vanzack]

Scratch that. Zach Johnson looks awfully good.

Funny thing is that I am 1 mile from his home course and my only hole in one in my life was on the 6th hole there.

There is going to be a big celebration here if he wins. Everywhere but my house.

[bigboydan]

Zach Johnson wins it.

[WWTSblows]

I grabbed $5 of Z Johnson this morning on MB. They were offering 28 to 1.

[jjgold]

Tiger played bad, also bad course management

[crackerjack]

I guess the question is:

Has Tiger ever been 1 stroke back in a major entering the final day? And if so, did he lose? Was this in the last 8 years or so?

What is his record in majors if he is tied or leading?

Thanks

CBS flashed the graphic up repeatedly that Tiger has never won a major when trailing after the third round.