[Sam Odom]

dont get caught-up in baseball fever in April, bet small until there is enought data to crunched out winners

IMHO stay with the dogs in April

.

[bigboydan]

Thats sound advice Sam.

[EaglesPhan36]

Speaking of dogs, I like the Dodgers & Rangers on Monday.

[mavs1978]

what weight do you put on spring training era s when handicapping the first week or two of bb

[bigboydan]

I don't put much into spring training at all mavs. Most players and even managers are trying out new stuff.

[The HG]

Spring training performances can shed some light on pitchers in certain cases, particularly ones "coming back" in some way, from an injury or otherwise. But in general, you shouldn't put too much stock in spring ERAs, especially in the cases of young starters who may have had notably good or bad springs.

As far as taking dogs in April, over the last 2 years that has been a sound way to go. In each of the past 2 years, blindly betting dogs in April would have resulted in roughly +7 units, making about 2.7%, or winning 2.7 cents for every dollar bet.

Interestingly though, small/moderate road faves and huge home faves did well in both years as well. Road faves of around -130 or less, and home faves of -180 or more, are both general categories that have done well recently.

Of course, this year things could well be very different due to changes in the betting landscape, so as always, proceed with caution and always be thinking about value and edge.

[pags11]

good advice sam...

[jjgold]

I took a beating already must re group for tomorrow

[Sam Odom]

jj, double-up with Florida