Betting Tools Questions and Comments

isetcap · 10-02-2006, 06:31 PM

I think these tools were designed by this guy...

http://www.homestarrunner.com/vcr_sm.html

jjgold · 10-02-2006, 08:34 PM

I think they would look cool all on big page, maybe each category color coded.

Great Stuff here for the gambler

Ganchrow · 10-03-2006, 09:43 PM

The Poisson calculator now provides the option for both one and two variable calculations.

Let me know if anyone finds any errors.

Tchocky · 10-04-2006, 02:10 PM

Excuse me if I sound like an idiot but the only ones I understand are the parlay calculator and U.S./Decimal odds converter. Can someone please explain all the other ones?

Freeplay Value calculator description

pags11 · 10-05-2006, 03:50 AM

excellent work as always ganchrow...

RickySteve · 10-09-2006, 04:56 PM

Very nice to have such useful tools in one convenient place. Thanks a lot, Ganchrow.

BetByInternet · 10-14-2006, 12:44 AM

nice.

rezster · 10-16-2006, 03:21 PM

a valuable resource, thanks for posting

jjgold · 10-16-2006, 05:24 PM

I use these tools all the time, we should have a link on the homepage also.

Aces · 10-16-2006, 11:36 PM

TLD · 10-18-2006, 08:01 PM

I’ve been using the “Free Play Calculator.” My unofficial rule is to hold out for at least 80% value on a free play moneyline scalp.

bookie · 10-26-2006, 02:35 PM

You know what would be cool to see add to the scalpe value calculator, or as a thing on its own...

A scalp bet dividing calculator. If line one is X and line two is Y to assure equal profit (loss) on each outcome bet amount A on X and B on Y.

Ganchrow · 10-26-2006, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bookie

You know what would be cool to see add to the scalpe value calculator, or as a thing on its own...

A scalp bet dividing calculator. If line one is X and line two is Y to assure equal profit (loss) on each outcome bet amount A on X and B on Y.

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, what you're describing is already what the "Scalp Value Calculator" does.

bookie · 10-26-2006, 06:15 PM

You're right. I hadn't played with it enough to realize that.

Tchocky · 11-07-2006, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

I'll start off with the Freeplay Value Calculator, which, as its name implies, figures the value of a freeplay bonus based upon betting and hedging at specifioed prices.

For example let's say that a book offers you a $200 freeplay which you bet at +200 and hedge -215, You'd enter $200 into the "Freeplay Size" box, +200 into the "Freeplay Line" box, and -215 into the "Hedge Line" box.

When you click "Calculate" you see that the proper amount for the hedge bet would be $273.02 and your locked-in profit would be $126.98. This means that you would have captured 63.49% of the notional ($200) value of the freeplay.

Now compare that to the same $200 freeplay, bet at -110 (entered into the "Freeplay Line" box) and hedged at +120 (entered into the "Hedge Line" box). After clicking "Calculate" you see that the proper hedge bet under these circumstances would be $82.64 and the locked-in profit would then be $99.17. This means that you would have captured 49.59% of the notional value of freeplay.

The conclusion which could then be drawn from this is that betting a freeplay at +200, and hedging at -215 would be a better usage of the freeplay than betting at -110 and hedging at +120.

Thanks for the explantion, Ganchrow.

Ganchrow · 11-08-2006, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tchocky

Thanks for the explantion, Ganchrow.

No problem.

Just let me know if you want an explanation of anything else.

isetcap · 11-11-2006, 02:17 AM

ganchrow, you've got some great tools...

Korchnoi · 12-05-2006, 11:31 AM

An interesting result that is clear only really when you hedge out your freeplay risk is that you should prefer a "bad" longshot bet to even a great even money bet.

Even if you can find a bet +120 and hedge it out +100 (thus finding a bet with 4.76% edge) you only capture something like 54% of the freeplay value. Compare this to betting a longshot at +800 and hedging it at -900 (losing 1.76%) -- your freeplay value is something like 76%.

The only difference between a free play and regular bet is that in a freeplay you don't get your initial stake back. Therefore, you maximize your freeplay value by reducing the extent to which the fact that you don't get your original stake back doesn't much matter.

On many sites there are restrictions on how long your odds can be on a freeplay. On BetCris the max payoff of a freeplay is $5000 and the max freeplay bonus is $500. I put mine all on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at +1000 (which happens to be both a longshot and a bet with edge). I'll probably let it ride for a while.

Thanks for the tools Ganchrow!