Question: Is the public still the public?

Dark Horse · 03-25-2007, 01:09 PM

Is the public still the public, or has the new legislation chased away most of the less informed bettors?

Are we suddenly playing against much better opposition?

I'm asking because I'm getting very different overlay results for the NBA this season.

durito · 03-25-2007, 01:14 PM

I think the public is still betting just as much, just probably mostly with locals -- which changes the dynamics offshore.

The people willing to jump through hoops to get money offshore, probably know what they are doing.

ShamsWoof10 · 03-25-2007, 01:15 PM

I agree the legislation has changed things as what I think has been reflected in Pinny's. lines not being as sharp...

Dark Horse · 03-25-2007, 01:19 PM

Lines not as sharp? Hmm.

If we compare this to a poker tournament where many of the bad players have been eliminated, the level of opposition is higher now. If the books know that, they could play the lines slightly different.

Just wondering.

Hulu · 03-25-2007, 02:09 PM

Its hard to say. I have been thinking the same thing as you...that there is now a higher ratio of sharp money to public money in the offshore pool. I have noticed NBA lines getting sharper but on the other hand, lines usually do get sharper as the season wears on in any sport so I am waiting for baseball season to learn more.

wack · 03-25-2007, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Lines not as sharp? Hmm.

If we compare this to a poker tournament where many of the bad players have been eliminated, the level of opposition is higher now. If the books know that, they could play the lines slightly different.

Just wondering.

I think that's a good observation, assuming the locals don't hedge with offshore books? Big hitters though, square or sharp, probably still get on online somehow?

Jay Edgar · 03-25-2007, 04:14 PM

It's a great question and fun to speculate about. But, as always, I do think some objective data can advance the discussion like nothing else.

RickySteve, are you out there? What was the site that you linked to back in the fall that had, among other things, good data for how the opening and closing lines perform versus the results? Did it have NBA and CBB or just football? I can't remember.

A further complication, as I see it, is that mid-January coincides, roughly, with the time in every basketball season when the line, both as set by the BM and as moved by whoever moves it, begins to get sharper. So the real question in this Pinny/Neteller year is how much tightening has occured been above and beyond the typical.