[Computer]

Hy,

Where you can find CRIS lines movements history? Need to know what the line was on the CHAR game total from 6.00 PM ET to the start. Any help really appreciated thanks.

[bigboydan]

This link should provide the answer your seeking:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NBA+O...625/Total.aspx

[Actionbrett]

Would you guys agree that at CRIS and Pinnacle, if the line moves within 30 minutes of opening it generally covers?

Seems like to me most the sharps who pound the hell out of lines minutes after they open are all at cris, pinnacle and olympic.

Thoughts/opinions?

[Computer]

This link should provide the answer your seeking:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NBA+O...625/Total.aspx

Thankyou very much big . It was 194.5 for what i needed to know.

[Jay Edgar]

Would you guys agree that at CRIS and Pinnacle, if the line moves within 30 minutes of opening it generally covers?

Seems like to me most the sharps who pound the hell out of lines minutes after they open are all at cris, pinnacle and olympic.

Thoughts/opinions?

I think that those initial moves seem to be in the right direction more often than not.

I know that the data is right there if somebody wants to do the hard work to actually find out for sure. This would be a valuable thing to understand more about, obviously,

[Dark Horse]

Funny thing is that if you knew which leans work and where, you wouldn't have to know anything about sports. Nothing at all. You could just play the leans.

[b-jamin]

I think that those initial moves seem to be in the right direction more often than not.

For the soccer, yes it's look like true( and not full of volume), but not the last day at 9-10am (GMT+1). It can change or not. Depending the info.

And 1hour before the kick off, it can have big variation too.

sorry for my english.

[Actionbrett]

I'll run some numbers this weekend and let you guys know.

I watch lines and dont know an exact number but it seems to me they hit more then they lose. I remember when i use to go to LV 6-7 years ago when i just turned 21 and wasnt aware of the offshore industry yet, we always stayed saturday to tuesday morning at the startdust(RIP) Our highlight was watching the sharps walk into the stardust with bags and briefcases full of cash when the NFL lines went up for the next weekend games; needless to say when those guys threw down serious change the line moved and covered an aweful lot.

[Jay Edgar]

The English is more than good enough. Thanks for posting.

I do suspect that the moves at CRIS of 1 point or more on NBA totals in the first 30 minutes are in the right direction 53-55% or so. But I have not checked it.

[Actionbrett]

Purdue v. Florida (Pinnacle)

Line went up at 11:12 pm central time at -8
at 11:43 pm central time at -8.5

.5 points in 30 minutes
________________________________________ __

Nevada v. Memphis(pinnacle, cris, olympic)

Line went up at 5:58 pm central time at -6
at 6:09 pm central time at -5.5
at 11:52 central time at -5

.5 points in 11 minutes(at all books +/- 1-2 minutes)
________________________________________ ______

UNLV v. Wisky (pinnacle, cris)

Line went up at 5:57 pm central time at -6
at 6:09 pm central time at -5.5

**Greek opened the line at -5.5 about 15 minutes after pinnacle/cris opened

.5 points in 12 minutes(both books)

*I personally like all three plays and bet 2 out of 3 cover.

*Texas AM line came out at -1.5 and was at -2 in about 4 hours.
________________________________________ ________




Another question. In everyones opinion what are your thoughts on games where the line(for example) is -3 Ohio State at cris, greek, pinnacle(sharp/professional books) but its -4 at SI, betus etc (square books).

Are they begging people to take -4 or +4, one point difference is alot from book to book.

Id like to keep this conversation going with additional information coming from all angles. It will help us all out.

[Ganchrow]

The English is more than good enough. Thanks for posting.

I do suspect that the moves at CRIS of 1 point or more on NBA totals in the first 30 minutes are in the right direction 53-55% or so. But I have not checked it.

With line movements, as in life, it's necessary to differentiate between predictive forecasting and descriptive modeling (or if you prefer, between a priori and a posteriori phenomena).

To wit, Counselor, one might claim that in the NFL a line movement off the 3-point and onto the 3½ implies (ceteris paribus) a 55% likelihood of fave winning by 3+. This is probably about as true as it is uninstructive. The movement off the 3 isn't implying value at the new price of 3½, but rather implying ex post that the old price had value. You could certainly make consistent money off of this -- were you able to transact at stale prices.

Now this is what a professional steam bettor does all day-long. (Yes, Virginia, there are professional steam bettors -- in almost every market, in fact. In the NASDAQ market of the early-to-mid-90s these guys were less-than-affectionately known as "SOES Bandits". If you had ever had the opportunity to call a US equity market-maker back then, clearly heard over the din of Chinese food orders would be the grating yelp of traders, "F**K! I just got SOESed!" Ahh, good times.) A steam-bettor sees the market is moving at a "fast shop" and then quickly tries to bet the old number at a "slow shop". The successful steamer isn't assuming that because the line just moved it's gong to continue to do so, but rather he's taking advantage of the very boring fact that some books are just plain slower to move their lines than others.

It's important to realize that when considering a generic line movement, the movement is most likely describing the past as opposed to predicting the future. "The old line was a bit off," it's generally proclaiming, "The new line? It's probably about 50/50." This isn't meant to imply that psychological issues will never impact market micro-movements. They will. But at best (especially in more mature, relatively efficient markets such that for NFL spreads) these are exceptions that prove the rule. In general, line movements aren't radar detectors, but rather are speeding tickets already burning a hole in the passenger's seat.

[raiders72002]

As always great post Ganch although there are times where I would consider value on the new line.

The movement off the 3 isn't implying value at the new price of 3½, but rather implying ex post that the old price had value

Sometimes numbers flash such as the Super Bowl. Most books were on 7 opening night and some 7.5s flashed. When numbers flash the value is actually at the momentary new line.

Later there were lots of 6.5s. It depends on the volitality of the line to determine where the value lies.

[Jay Edgar]

Just so we're clear, I'm only talking about the initial 'adjustment' in the very first line offered the day before the game. And I'm only talking about whatever happens in the first few minutes after that initial line goes up. I think this eliminates much worry about 'steam' moves or injury moves infecting the results. It's pre-steam, and pre-news. The limits are low at that point, so it wouldn't seem like there would be too many 'head fakes'. As far as I can tell, those come right before the 6:00pm steam the next day, when the limits are higher.

So that's what I would research.

I'd require that the line move two ticks or more and do so within the first 15 to 30 minutes of release. Any line movement after that I would ignore for purposes of the study.

I'd grade the results against the line after it had made the initial move. (Since that's what you could bet if you determined that this move pointed to the winning side.) Not the opening line, not the closing line.

I would go to Vegas Insiders and I'd begin at the start of the NBA season. I'd look at CRIS and Pinnacle only. To start, I would limit it to NBA full game totals. I'd find the first 200 plays and see how things look. I wouldn't be surprised to see very strong initial results, tapering off some as the year went on.

But I've not looked at any of this systematically. It would be a lot of work. And my hands are full, But it is there for anyone to research. I will say that in the middle of the year I had good results just looking at it casually and playing totals indicated if I agree with them.

[Ganchrow]

As always great post Ganch although there are times where I would consider value on the new line.

And you certainly should ... I was speaking in but the broadest of terms.

Sometimes numbers flash such as the Super Bowl. Most books were on 7 opening night and some 7.5s flashed. When numbers flash the value is actually at the momentary new line.

You may very well be correct here. I'd just be a little skeptical that pure directional analysis of line movements based solely on simple non-quantitative criteria (that is to say, criteria that can readily be evaluated at a glance) could yield a demonstrably profitable in a mahor market sport.

But as always ... I may be wrong.

[Actionbrett]

UNLV----Winner
Florida---Loser
Texas AM---Winner
Nevada +6--Pending
Oregon -3---Winner
Tennessee -2----Winner

Oregon went from -3 to -3.5 in about 8 hours
Tennesee went from -2 to -2.5 in about 6 hours
________________________________________ ___


Pitt v. UCLA

UCLA opened at -2 at pinnacle and cris and jumped to -2.5 in about 3 minutes. The line opened at -2.5 at Olympic after the line moved to 2.5 at cris and pinnacle.

I got the line at -2.5 and bought it down to -2.


UNLV v. Oregon

This line came out 10 minutes ago at Cris. It opened at Oregon -1.5 -110 and 45 seconds later it was at -2 -110. The line opened at -2 at pinnacle.