1. #1
    Betman vs. Book
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    Conspiracy Theory Bookmakers (CTB)

    This is my first topic, which I will describe my understanding of how the bookmakers.
    To confirm the theory, I will give examples.
    Last edited by Betman vs. Book; 12-19-13 at 05:45 PM.

  2. #2
    Betman vs. Book
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    Example:
    Portugal, Maritimo-Braga. Result: 2-1, 2-2 (Draw)
    First odds (1x2): 3.64 3.44 2.15 (EU odds)
    Last odds (1x2): 4.49 3.64 1.89 (EU odds)
    analyze only pre-match odds.
    We have movement line: Up home team - -12 price; Up draw - -4 price; Down away team - 19 price
    If you believe the movement, the money is concentrated in Braga.
    But if you add another indicator - Balance Money Supply (BMS) - it's easy: -12 + -4 + 19 = 3 price
    We will see advantage line in away team for three price.




    What conclusion?
    -Bookmaker cut odds on the Home team and Draw. High probability that the final result will be: home team or draw.

  3. #3
    Betman vs. Book
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    Now I show how to work with filters...

    Step 1:
    Entering Opening and Closing odds in the table.
    Attached Files
    Last edited by Betman vs. Book; 12-20-13 at 06:48 AM.

  4. #4
    Betman vs. Book
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    Step 2:
    Filtering movement Match odds.
    Attached Files

  5. #5
    Betman vs. Book
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    Step 3:
    Filtering payuot (marge), and ∑₃Line'².
    Attached Files

  6. #6
    stefan084
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    good stuff-thanks

  7. #7
    tto827
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    As the odds spread further apart, the value of a cent becomes smaller and smaller.

    The theoretical hold is likely almost identical I would assume. This assuredly will not be a winning strategy I can promise you that, but BOL with flipping coins.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: joseph221980

  8. #8
    allin1
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    I don't think odds from recreational bookmakers matter so much

    funny title by the way

  9. #9
    Betman vs. Book
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    Your profits depend on the selection criteria (algorithm).
    ...the example I showed you just tip of the iceberg
    if the filter only one parameter and ignore the other indicators - the result will be negative distance nadlitelnoy
    necessary to consider a set of indicators...
    Search "good algorithm" - it's long (or neverending) story

  10. #10
    Vaughany
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    No idea what you are sayin

  11. #11
    real1992
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betman vs. Book View Post
    Example:
    Portugal, Maritimo-Braga. Result: 2-1, 2-2 (Draw)
    First odds (1x2): 3.64 3.44 2.15 (EU odds)
    Last odds (1x2): 4.49 3.64 1.89 (EU odds)
    analyze only pre-match odds.
    We have movement line: Up home team - -12 price; Up draw - -4 price; Down away team - 19 price
    If you believe the movement, the money is concentrated in Braga.
    But if you add another indicator - Balance Money Supply (BMS) - it's easy: -12 + -4 + 19 = 3 price
    We will see advantage line in away team for three price.




    What conclusion?
    -Bookmaker cut odds on the Home team and Draw. High probability that the final result will be: home team or draw.
    This is extremely without sense!!!
    According to your opinion this mean that moneyline (that changes from) 2.9 & 1.5 its worse than 3.3 & 1.3 only because in total we have +0.4 - 0.2 = +0.2 so very wrong way to think. Everything depends on odds. The lower the odds of favourite team ,the bigger will be the difference on odds change but that doesnt mean the payout is getting better ....

  12. #12
    Chi_archie
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    Something to dig into on a rainy day

    need tons and tons of exsmples

  13. #13
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    Something to dig into on a rainy day

    need tons and tons of exsmples
    Tested the program for three months, made 480 bets.
    The result is positive, so I'm sure I chose the right direction.

  14. #14
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by real1992 View Post
    This is extremely without sense!!!
    According to your opinion this mean that moneyline (that changes from) 2.9 & 1.5 its worse than 3.3 & 1.3 only because in total we have +0.4 - 0.2 = +0.2 so very wrong way to think. Everything depends on odds. The lower the odds of favourite team ,the bigger will be the difference on odds change but that doesnt mean the payout is getting better ....
    Do you focus on the particular.
    Note - I wrote about complex analysis: a movement, ratio range, payuot and more...
    Your opinion is correct - if it is applied to the analysis of fragmented - one criterion.

  15. #15
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betman vs. Book View Post
    Tested the program for three months, made 480 bets.
    The result is positive, so I'm sure I chose the right direction.
    Why are you sure? Is it that positive? Couldn't it be randomness?

  16. #16
    betairdotcom
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    interesting theory. going to try it out on paper

  17. #17
    joseph221980
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    I'm dumb

    Northbet seems to cut 10% on the hometeam

  18. #18
    theclutch7
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    Just calculate and enjoy the games, I hit 12-4 almost every week because of experience! 32 years! not this egghead stuff

  19. #19
    bozeman
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    interesting theory - bookies do know factors that influence games - which they dont tell the public - so this theory has some grounds - it is harder for them to predict money movement - so their first odds are adequate and adjustments are cause of money of public - i think it is not the best theory - but definitely not a loser one

  20. #20
    tbomber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betman vs. Book View Post
    Example:
    We have movement line: Up home team - -12 price; Up draw - -4 price; Down away team - 19 price
    If you believe the movement, the money is concentrated in Braga.
    But if you add another indicator - Balance Money Supply (BMS) - it's easy: -12 + -4 + 19 = 3 price
    We will see advantage line in away team for three price.
    How do you calculate the movement values (-12, -4, 19) from the odds?

  21. #21
    raydog
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    Quote Originally Posted by theclutch7 View Post
    Just calculate and enjoy the games, I hit 12-4 almost every week because of experience! 32 years! not this egghead stuff

  22. #22
    Sdotbold
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    12-4 every week?
    On what?

  23. #23
    tto827
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    Might as well have a topic about the magical fukkin coin in the think tank... Dear god

  24. #24
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Might as well have a topic about the magical fukkin coin in the think tank... Dear god
    Amen


    ....I have this magic coin, I can send it to you by mail.

  25. #25
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by tbomber View Post
    How do you calculate the movement values (-12, -4, 19) from the odds?
    it ticks, the basis of data taken of ladder Betfair.
    Each band coefficients step.
    Look ....
    Factor Range Step (ticks)
    1.00 - 2.00 1 : 1.01, 1.02, 1.03...
    2.00 - 3.00 2 : 2.02, 2.04, 2.06...
    3.00 - 4.00 5 : 3.05, 3.10, 3.15...
    4.00 - 6.00 10 : 4.10, 4.20, 4.30...
    etc.
    can also use the formula Percentage.

  26. #26
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by betairdotcom View Post
    interesting theory. going to try it out on paper
    In order to verify the theory I have collected base matches, in the database 100000 matches now.

  27. #27
    SportsMushroom
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    as someone already mentioned, the theoretical hold remains more or less the same, the more the lines drift apart, the bigger the spread between those lines becomes, its just maths, not the book winking at you on which side is the right one. books are not stupid, they wouldn't risk tipping people off on which side to bet

    what other parameters have you used to choose your bets? my guess is that if you did make a profit it is just a coincidence, usually what we do is we are biased, there is a chance that if you backtested it, you picked the criteria and/or sample that would validate your system

    and lets face it, this is a system, the think tank is aimed at discussing mathematical/statistical approaches to handicapping, not systems, there is no system that works, at least not in the long run, and the short run is simply called variance
    Last edited by SportsMushroom; 03-21-14 at 03:17 AM.

  28. #28
    Betman vs. Book
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    what other parameters have you used to choose your bets?
    - first parameter-
    I make opening line, and look how bookie change this line.
    - second-
    Filtering OL and CL in the database plus looking movement, type movement, payout.
    -third-
    Looking lines Pinnacle-Marathon-BetVictor

  29. #29
    SportsMushroom
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    ok, that seems reasonable

    do you mind sharing what have been your results up to now? win %, roi? backtesting and also actualy results

  30. #30
    Betman vs. Book
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    ok, I'm sharing my result - screen my account....and maybe share database odds Pinnacle.

  31. #31
    sweep
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  32. #32
    Betman vs. Book
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweep View Post
    Are you about yourself?

  33. #33
    Betman vs. Book
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    account.jpg

    My result for 30 days.
    Make a 160 bets type bet - flat, 5% of the bank's.
    Last edited by Betman vs. Book; 03-26-14 at 05:46 AM.

  34. #34
    SportsMushroom
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    Quote Originally Posted by Betman vs. Book View Post
    account.jpg


    My result for 30 days.
    Make a 160 bets type bet - flat, 5% of the bank's.

    cant read the image betman

    congrats on your success, let us know how it goes

  35. #35
    Ballerholic
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    OK cool story bro on your theory, maybe post some plays over here if it's so effective

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