[suicidekings]

I think the most common and worst assumption a lot of bettors make that follow line movement is that all the sharp money is naturally going to be on the same side of a particular wager. If you picked 10 experienced, independent handicappers to assess the same 5 games, how many do you think would agree on the outcomes? or for that matter, on which game is the best bet?

From the books' perspective, their interest most of the time is in balancing the betting to maximize their hold on the games. However, when they have a strong lean on which way a game will go, and they see 70% of bets being placed on the wrong side, do you really think they'll adjust the line? Not likely. Does that 70-30 split imply that there's smart money on the 30% side? Not necessarily. Similarly, if there's a game that the book has no strong lean on, but the public loads up on the team that's had recent success and lots of media coverage to produce a 70-30 split, the book will most likely move the line to help balance the betting out. The line movement doesn't make the 30% side right. It's just a good business move on the part of the book...

Not every game line is being pushed around by smart money...

[Matt Rain]

Problem is finding 10 thousand bets worth gambling on in a year I suppose...

Just about any event is "worth gambling on" at some point. Most lines move by more than their built-in juice during the life of the market, sometimes both ways. i.e. there's value to be found in a ton of events every day. With Euro sports being played during the day, an ambitious guy could keep his whole bankroll in play 24/7. 10k bets a year is easily achieved with enough free time and/or automation.

[Facepunch]

Sharp money is a fallacy. Cap the games not the line

[gman2114]

when i bet a game (particularily ML) so often then move the value down. I bet at -120 then hit enter I get the line has moved to -125. I am I a sharp bettor to them? Or do they move the line on volume?

[pavyracer]

Some interesting views in this thread. Still debating what's the ratio of bet size to hitting rate to be qualified as sharp money.

For example:

$100 flat bets hitting 56%
$250 flat bets hitting 55%
$500 flat bets hitting 54%
$1000 flat bets hitting 53%

Is there a ratio of action that a book has to see from sharp action before they decide to move the line? What if sharp action tries to hit the book with small bets testing the waters and then catch them off guard with a large bet on a line the book thought was solid?

[SCRAGGS]

check jjgold's spreadsheet to see which side the sharp money is on

Most accurate post of all time.

[lyon804]

Good point being brought up here by Pavy. If sharp money does move the lines instead of market manipulation. I do think money moves lines, but I also think in professional sports it doesn't have as much bearing. I see line movement on the time that ends up being wrong in pro sports. I have never taken the time to see how often the sharp money is right. Sometimes they are spot on, but other times not so much.Who know's good thread.

[eberetta1]

I guess I am not sharp money, because I was wrong twice tonight. I guess, I'll learn by reading.

[jackpot269]

When the fix is in that is where the smart and sharp money is, juice don't matter cause its not part of the equation anymore!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kaps]

sharps have been getting killed lately

[Justin7]

I think the most common and worst assumption a lot of bettors make that follow line movement is that all the sharp money is naturally going to be on the same side of a particular wager. If you picked 10 experienced, independent handicappers to assess the same 5 games, how many do you think would agree on the outcomes? or for that matter, on which game is the best bet?

Sharps may not agree on the "best bet", but there is one certainty: sharps almost NEVER oppose each other on the same game at the same price.

[Dark Horse]

Some interesting views in this thread. Still debating what's the ratio of bet size to hitting rate to be qualified as sharp money.

For example:

$100 flat bets hitting 56%
$250 flat bets hitting 55%
$500 flat bets hitting 54%
$1000 flat bets hitting 53%

Is there a ratio of action that a book has to see from sharp action before they decide to move the line? What if sharp action tries to hit the book with small bets testing the waters and then catch them off guard with a large bet on a line the book thought was solid?

To the best of my understanding.

Most books don't initiate line movements, but just follow. The books that do take action from big players are the same that move the lines, and they probably flag only a few for the purpose of line movements.

That would explain why only the Pinny lean and the Spiro (Oly?) lean have been considered as capping tools.

The percentages at recreational books emphasize the squarer action, which can become exposed -through RLM- when that book follows the line movement that is initiated at one of the big books.

Smaller books are probably more inclined to shade a line (if they want balanced action), than initiate a line movement (which could expose them). Not set in stone. Just general idea.

[pavyracer]

Thanks Dark Horse for the thoughtful response. It is nice to know how line movements work because most people have no idea what sharp money is.

[Shortstop]

You guys think too much!

[BigdaddyQH]

Very interesting thoughts about "sharps". Let me set a few things straight. First, Sharps would not be in the business of wagering huge money on footbal lif all they could get out of it was a 53-54% return on their money. People could make more money at a lot less risk conventionally. 60% is always the target. 58-59% is normally what I hit at. This year will be much better. Some years are worse.

Next, as far as the lines go, there are many variables that determine the line but remember this. Sharpes, as you guys like to call them, get the first shot at the line. That is called the lead line. This line comes out Sunday afternoon, and Vegas books invite their "Sharpes", "High Rollers", "Cartels" or whatever you want to call them to wager on lines that may not be available to Joe Pub. After these people make their opening plays, the lines are adjusted and posted for the public. As someone correctly pointed out, this gives the Sharpes more chances at middling, and middling is a way to get the maximum return on your investment with the minimum of risk. Books like this because most middles are split, and the book makes good vig money.

Sharpes and books also use other methods of screwing Joe Pub. The "bait and switch" is the toughest for Joe Pub to figure out because by time they finally realize what has happened, it is after the fact. There are other forms of line maneuvering that are used by both Sharps and Books. What is funny is that Joe Pub is so concerned by these moves that they try to read way too much into the lines. Instead of just concentrating on the teams, they try to read every wager made, opening themselves up to all kinds of losses. The most popular is the discussion abut how much money is on a team compared to how many people have wagered on the game. What Joe Pub fails to realize is that they have absolutely no way of verifying that the info they have is legit or not. A book could easily tell you anything they want to try and manipulate a line.

There is one other thing about Sharpes and this may be the most important thing of all. I know may people who you would put in that classification and the vast majority of them are good gamblers, period. They have the mental toughness and discipline to pass on a wager if they are not completely sold on it. They know all about the odds. They know that the more games you wager on, the less chance you have of making a big profit. They know never to ignore information, but never to "tail" anyone. Most importantly, they have that gut instinct that is right a lot more than it is wrong. The successful gambler knows that the bottom line is his gut instinct.

[james4512]

easy answer theres more square money than sharp money so you dont adjust for the sharps because they will get on the right side, they move the lines just for the public perception

[durito]

Very interesting thoughts about "sharps". Let me set a few things straight. First, Sharps would not be in the business of wagering huge money on footbal lif all they could get out of it was a 53-54% return on their money. People could make more money at a lot less risk conventionally. 60% is always the target. 58-59% is normally what I hit at. This year will be much better. Some years are worse.

.

Why was this thread put in the think tank? Who keeps doing this?

[Matt Rain]

58-59% is normally what I hit at.

What about the rest of the time? Were you playing with someone else's money during those years you hit 48%?

Selective memory is one hell of a disease.

[pavyracer]

Mods please remove this thread from Think Tank. I don't want the geeks who don't post picks to read it.

[20Four7]

Mods please remove this thread from Think Tank. I don't want the geeks who don't post picks to read it.

Sharp Post Pavy......