[jjgold]

and you have a chance to win money long term or at least have a chance to have some good years, no parlays or other gimmicks either.

[Dark Horse]

It could work. But if you're playing the numbers and know your edge, you need more action. I would just put more money on those five bets, if they were so good.

[onlooker]

Thats a bit to little I think JJ. 3 a day is more like it. If you can find value. If not, just move on to the next day.

[ferndog]

I think players hit hot and cold streaks. When you are hot jack up your plays....when you are not then hold back. You have to take advantage of your hot streaks and get them for as much as you can because you will get some cold streaks and with cold streaks you just try to minimize your losses.

[vanzack]

and you have a chance to win money long term or at least have a chance to have some good years, no parlays or other gimmicks either.

JJ - I usually try to ignore your posts because they are so random and I think you just post for shock value.

But if anyone reads this that actually thinks there is a shred of truth to this, you should stop gambling immediately.

Anyone who assigns arbitrary numbers in arbitrary time periods is a straight up square. Guaranteed. Its the only 100% tell in sportsbetting.

Why 5 a week? What if one week there are 50 good games and none for the next 10 weeks?

The bottom line is that you should bet every game that you have a positive EV. 5 a week, 5 a year, 500 a day, it doesnt matter - if you are predeterming an amount of games in a given time period you are just guessing. ITS ALL ARBITRARY. Real magic 8 ball stuff.

Parlays and teasers are fine as long as you are not paying extra juice which eats away at your EV. IF you get a true odds parlay it has the same EV as straight bets, so there is no difference in playing them.

Back to your random thoughts.....

[jjgold]

Vanzer the more you bet the more the vig will eat you alive

You can beat a game but you cannot beat the games

books love guys that bet tons of games and books hate spot bettors

thread closed

[imgv94]

I think players hit hot and cold streaks. When you are hot jack up your plays....when you are not then hold back. You have to take advantage of your hot streaks and get them for as much as you can because you will get some cold streaks and with cold streaks you just try to minimize your losses.

Very good points..

[vanzack]

Vanzer the more you bet the more the vig will eat you alive

You can beat a game but you cannot beat the games

books love guys that bet tons of games and books hate spot bettors

thread closed

Books love guys who make arbitrary decisions more than anybody.

Your theory is not only philosophically wrong, but mathematically wrong as well. If you are saying that you cant win long term, then you are better off betting 1 game a year than 5 a week. If you are saying that you can get advantages better than 50% then you are better off betting as many of those as you can find, and not limiting yourself to 5 a week.

Any way you slice it, "5 a week" is arbitrary and has no value whatsoever. If you "can beat the game but cant beat the games", you shouldnt be gambling. What is the point of your assertion to bet 5 games a week if you are going to lose eventually? Are you saying that you will lose more slowly if you do it this way? Then why not 2 a week instead of 5 a week? Why a week? Why 5?

Its all arbitrary and holds no validity. Hocus pocus pull a number out of your ass stuff. Not good advice for anyone.

Im really trying to understand when you post this stuff if you are serious or not, or if everything you post is just so absurd that everyone knows that you are being sarcastic. I dont know you well enough to know the difference yet. I certainly hope you are kidding most of the time because almost everything I read from you falls in to the absurd category.

Now its thread closed.....

[imgv94]

It's also hard to stay on top of things if your not betting..

[Razz]

People, don't waste your time reading this whole thread. This paragraph is really all you need to know on the subject.

The bottom line is that you should bet every game that you have a positive EV. 5 a week, 5 a year, 500 a day, it doesnt matter - if you are predeterming an amount of games in a given time period you are just guessing. ITS ALL ARBITRARY. Real magic 8 ball stuff.

[jjgold]

No way to have that many edges on games because the lines are too tight


95% of people betting lots of gamers are compulisve gamblers and action lovers thats all.

[Preussen]

I'm not a very experienced sportsbettor but I'd like to comment on two things I read in this thread:

the more you bet the more the vig will eat you alive

If you only bet games where you are certain to have an edge bigger than the juice (and good sportsbettors only bet those) this is simply not true. It's like saying to a merchant that the more he sells the more taxes will eat him alive.

I think players hit hot and cold streaks. When you are hot jack up your plays....when you are not then hold back. You have to take advantage of your hot streaks and get them for as much as you can because you will get some cold streaks and with cold streaks you just try to minimize your losses.

If by "hot streak" you mean a time when you have an especially good ability to judge the games and lines this is correct, of course.
But I guess you mean a "hot streak" is when you win a lot of bets, and if this is so then your advice is worth absolutely nothing. Chance does not look to the past. Whether you have won or lost in the recent past has absolutely no influence on the outcome of the next bet, period. If you are certain to have found a soft line you should bet it even though you have been losing recently, and if you don't think you have an edge you should not bet even if you had been lucky before.

[vanzack]

I'm not a very experienced sportsbettor but I'd like to comment on two things I read in this thread:


If you only bet games where you are certain to have an edge bigger than the juice (and good sportsbettors only bet those) this is simply not true. It's like saying to a merchant that the more he sells the more taxes will eat him alive.




If by "hot streak" you mean a time when you have an especially good ability to judge the games and lines this is correct, of course.
But I guess you mean a "hot streak" is when you win a lot of bets, and if this is so then your advice is worth absolutely nothing. Chance does not look to the past. Whether you have won or lost in the recent past has absolutely no influence on the outcome of the next bet, period. If you are certain to have found a soft line you should bet it even though you have been losing recently, and if you don't think you have an edge you should not bet even if you had been lucky before.

You might not be "very experienced", but you hit the nail on the head with this post.