[Hoja Verdes]

Pinny just moved from +13.5 -109 to +12.5 -109.

Mississippi State is coming off their bye week, have a stud RB in Anthony Dixon (252 yds and 2 TD's last game vs. Kentucky), and will try to eat clock, maintain possession, and pound the ball all game. Bama of course will have a similar gameplan behind Mark Ingram, and will also have Greg McElroy on a short leash as he's proven that he's not a deep threat and has been badly overthrowing and missing open receivers on passes of more than about 25 yards.

Miss. State will hang in this game and will be fine if they limit turnovers and get to McElroy. Dan Mullen (coach) is pressing the fans and student body this week to set a new school attendance record like they did the last time they played Bama at home in 2007 (MSU won that game as a 14 point dog).

This line should be no more than Bama -9.5 and I think we'll see it keep shrinking throughout the week. Grab it now if you plan on playing the live home dog.

I'm not going crazy and calling for the upset here, but this game has 23-14 written all over it. Expect the usual from Bama, Mark Ingram pounding the ball mixed in with some short passing and stalled drives, resulting in multiple field goals. MSU will do the same and should find the endzone at least once with Dixon and get some field goals of their own. Just like the Bama/Tenn. game, this will have the look and feel of an NFL game, with a similar score as well. Bama will play conservative and look for they blue-collar single digit win, just like they have the last couple weeks.

[olemiss33]

You aren't close....State will not stay close to this line....Bama will win this game by 17-21 points. The only reason State stayed in the FL game was two int's returned for TD's. Their offense accounted for a grand total of 3 points.

Bama won't beat themselves, and State can't score. I look for this to be a 27-10, 30-10 type game. State is horrendous defensively, and will allow Mcelroy to get it going early. They will have to defend the pass, and Ingram will eat them up on the ground.

[Hoja Verdes]

You aren't close....State will not stay close to this line....Bama will win this game by 17-21 points. The only reason State stayed in the FL game was two int's returned for TD's. Their offense accounted for a grand total of 3 points.

Bama won't beat themselves, and State can't score. I look for this to be a 27-10, 30-10 type game. State is horrendous defensively, and will allow Mcelroy to get it going early. They will have to defend the pass, and Ingram will eat them up on the ground.

That's a pretty simplistic and biased summary of the game. If you'll remember, this was also the game where MSU got hosed on a call down 10 with 8:50 left in the 4th q and should have gotten the ball on their 20 rather than FLA getting a INT for TD. So if you want to arbitrarily throw out MSU's two INT's then you need to take one of FLA's off the board as well.

Let's dig a little deeper on the FLA/MSU game...

Passing:
FLA: 12 of 22 for 127 yards
MSU:15 of 23 for 145 yards

Rushing:
FLA: 47 attempts for 249 yards (22/88yds of which were Tebow)
MSU: 35 attempts for 92 yards (these are the numbers we'll get if Dixon doesn't get loose a single time)

First Downs:
FLA: 18
MSU:13

Time of Possession:
FLA: 32:15
MSU: 27:45

**Doesn't look as one-sided as you suggest, huh? Even if all they do is replicate the above stats vs. Bama, they'll stay within 13 points. Again, this game will be played in the trenches and will feature both teams just trying to run clock, hold onto the ball, and get more touchdowns than field goals when they get close, something Bama has proven they can't do with any consistency at all. MSU will be on fresh legs after the bye, at home, on ESPN. Bama has narrowly escaped defeat the last two weeks at home, so if there's a let-down spot for them, this is definitely it.

[wal66]

Why do people (children in most cases) feel the need to enter someones thread and tell them they are wrong, lost, or whatever else so emphatically. If it's a discussion thread (generally the poster will ask for opinions) then I understand stating differing opinions but when it isa thread that is pretty clear the poster knows where he's at and who he's on why be rude? If the need to persist to have a different opinion there are ways to query the posters thoughts in a repspectful and tactful way. If you have a completely and equally strong feeling about a play then make your own thread and leave the other posters to their opinions.

Sorry Hoja Verdes for the lack of respect around here at times. Personally I kind of think you're right here. While Alabama could pull away late plenty of indicators suggest taking the points here are a safer play.

[durito]

13.5 to 12.5 is worth about 5 cents

[pavyracer]

But the smart money posted this last night when the line was +13.5.

[Hoja Verdes]

But the smart money posted this last night when the line was +13.5.

Fukk that, I wanted Matchbook's +13.5 at a decent price all to myself.

Just look what this place did to phoenix's prop bet tonight on Willie Parker O/U 17.5 carries.

[Hoja Verdes]

13.5 to 12.5 is worth about 5 cents

How 'bout in the NFL? Because this will essentially be an NFL game.

[pavyracer]

Fukk that, I wanted Matchbook's +13.5 at a decent price all to myself.

Just look what this place did to phoenix's prop bet tonight on Willie Parker O/U 17.5 carries.

You should have seen phoenix's line on Birmingham +1.5 in soccer this afternoon after the sharps here hammered it. This is why I place the bet and then post the soft line.

[Hoja Verdes]

You should have seen phoenix's line on Birmingham +1.5 in soccer this afternoon after the sharps here hammered it. This is why I place the bet and then post the soft line.

Not sure how old you are, but back in the mid-90's a highschool kid got arrested for making hundreds of thousands of dollars using a "pump and dump" (or vice versa) scheme on various internet (mostly yahoo) message boards to profit from the emotional rollercoaster of the stock market.

Basically he'd buy (or short) a stock, then get on multiple log-ins on various message boards pimping or bashing the stock and using 'chicken little' rumors and insider info that he'd completely fabricated to steer the public toward buying or selling stocks. He legitimately made a small fortune doing it, and was driving a new mercedes when the Feds showed up to arrest him. Hilarious.

[Hoja Verdes]

ahh, the beauty of google...

http://www.cs.brown.edu/~rbb/risd/Lebed.html

*At age 15, he made $800k in 6 months using only the Yahoo and E*trade message boards. Wow.

[311]

Pinny just moved from +13.5 -109 to +12.5 -109.

Mississippi State is coming off their bye week, have a stud RB in Anthony Dixon (252 yds and 2 TD's last game vs. Kentucky), and will try to eat clock, maintain possession, and pound the ball all game. Bama of course will have a similar gameplan behind Mark Ingram, and will also have Greg McElroy on a short leash as he's proven that he's not a deep threat and has been badly overthrowing and missing open receivers on passes of more than about 25 yards.

Miss. State will hang in this game and will be fine if they limit turnovers and get to McElroy. Dan Mullen (coach) is pressing the fans and student body this week to set a new school attendance record like they did the last time they played Bama at home in 2007 (MSU won that game as a 14 point dog).

This line should be no more than Bama -9.5 and I think we'll see it keep shrinking throughout the week. Grab it now if you plan on playing the live home dog.

I'm not going crazy and calling for the upset here, but this game has 23-14 written all over it. Expect the usual from Bama, Mark Ingram pounding the ball mixed in with some short passing and stalled drives, resulting in multiple field goals. MSU will do the same and should find the endzone at least once with Dixon and get some field goals of their own. Just like the Bama/Tenn. game, this will have the look and feel of an NFL game, with a similar score as well. Bama will play conservative and look for they blue-collar single digit win, just like they have the last couple weeks.

they had that same stud running back in dixon when they lost outright in thier season opener 1 year ago against a powerhouse from the western athletic confrence!

[BadNina]

So you don't think Bama's D can handle the run in this game like they have pretty much all year?

[olemiss33]

Why do people (children in most cases) feel the need to enter someones thread and tell them they are wrong, lost, or whatever else so emphatically. If it's a discussion thread (generally the poster will ask for opinions) then I understand stating differing opinions but when it isa thread that is pretty clear the poster knows where he's at and who he's on why be rude? If the need to persist to have a different opinion there are ways to query the posters thoughts in a repspectful and tactful way. If you have a completely and equally strong feeling about a play then make your own thread and leave the other posters to their opinions.

Sorry Hoja Verdes for the lack of respect around here at times. Personally I kind of think you're right here. While Alabama could pull away late plenty of indicators suggest taking the points here are a safer play.

]

Why don't you reread the thread? Where was I "emphatic" or rude to the guy? I told him he was on the wrong side of the game, and he is. But if you want to play MS State in this game, jump all over it. In fact, you guys keep betting it down to 11 or so. I will happily take the extra points, although they won't be needed.

MS State is terrible, and won't cover another game, much less win one. After they take a beating this weekend, they will take another against Arkansas, then one at the hands of Ole Miss.

The point is he used stats from one game, that FL didn't give two shits about, which was all the talk in Starkville for two months. It meant EVERYTHING to them, and they still didn't put up points on the offensive side of the ball. They won't move the ball against Bama, either. They will turn it over at least 3 times, and won't have an answer for Ingram.

[The Seer]

Hoja you are correct. There will be somewhat of a letdown here by Bama. Bama will overlook them and this will be state's 2nd superbowl this year. They've had 2 weeks to prepare . State can score. I don't expect them to win but they will keep it within the number.

[Superman455]

I am with you Hoja. I think State is the bet here. I think this will be a very close game indeed. I am a big State fan and go to all the home games, and yes I am a bit bias in my opinion..I admit it. State has a very talented defense esp in the run D, the pass D is horrible, but Bama QB is no big treat in that department. State proved they can stay in games as of late and play good ball. You will have to forgive OLEMISS33....Look at the name...Ole Miss is the rival of State and they are still broken hearted from going 4th in the nation to at best 4th in the SEC...I am with you here...STATE and the points

[jcp1764]

Yeah I would say Miss St. is a good bet here. State has played some pretty good teams tough. Only lost by 4 to LSU, 11 to GT, and only 10 to Florida. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ingram get a little worn down b/c they will rely on him a lot. Close game this weekend in my opinion.

[CarpeDime]

great thread

great input olemiss, interesting to hear the pro-Bama side

[raydog]

"smart money" pinny line opens at 12.5 and goes to 13.5 and someone thinks "smart money" moved it back down to 12.5 i love this place. hojo, thats virtually an insignificant line movement buddy and i doubt this game is getting much action at all so far. if anything, your idea of whats moving the line is completely backwards. think about it... msu has hung fairly close in all their losses at home this year. they had a week off to prepare and bama has been less than steller. you really think the public came out and banged bama? nuh uh. just trying to help bud. you go nothing but some public action happening so far imo. dont really like either side of this one personally, but you know bama is going to force msu to make a world of mistakes. gl guys

[blackbart]

msu is the right side here
bad spot for ala
msu has improved as the season has progressed
should be close game

[BigdaddyQH]

First of all, nobody in here can wager at Pinny, so why even bring them into the discussion. Secondly, the only legit lines to look at are the Vegas lines, because they get more action than all of these mickey mouse books you guys have to play. The Vegas line is -11 to 11.5, so if you like 'Bama, grab this now. As far as "smart" money is concerned, do you guys know anything about it? The reason I ask is because "smart" money gets wagered on Sunday Nights, Monday, and game time, not on weekdays. Please do not act as if you know something when you do not. You can debate who has the better chance at covering the spread all day, but do not be playing $100 wagers and talking about smart money.

[jackpot269]

I am going to bet 50 and will probably be on the dumb money side but its all good its only 50 !!!!!!

[Hoja Verdes]

Fair enough...better choice of words would have been "early" money rather than "smart" money. I don't see an edit function, if one exists I'll gladly edit the thread title to eliminate confusion.

My original point was that when I saw the line at +13.5 early Monday morning, I immediately thought to myself, "that's a bit too high, that line won't last long," and then was pleased to see it indeed go to 12.5 shortly thereafter.

To whomever said "no one here can bet at Pinny," you are mistaken sir.

[jackpot269]

Fair enough...better choice of words would have been "early" money rather than "smart" money. I don't see an edit function, if one exists I'll gladly edit the thread title to eliminate confusion.

My original point was that when I saw the line at +13.5 early Monday morning, I immediately thought to myself, "that's a bit too high, that line won't last long," and then was pleased to see it indeed go to 12.5 shortly thereafter.

To whomever said "no one here can bet at Pinny," you are mistaken sir.

I was was just joking Im a Bama fan so rarely bet either way on their games I did take Kentucky and 18 against them and lost a little more than a 100 on that one cause my whole life they seldom blow teams out if they get a lead almost always let teams back in the game!!BOL this weekend everyone !!!!!

[BadNina]

Jackpot, I took Bama. I admit to being a homer about it too.

Someone wanted a Bama opinion? Here goes.

Bama's defense is stifling. While Miss State has made improvements do you really think that their offense is capable of doing more than LSU's? Or Arkansas? Or Ole Miss? Or Kentucky? And for whoever made the comment that Bama has no offense. That no offense racked up over 400 yards on LSU which was a vast improvement from the TN game. They also shot themselves in the foot a couple of times which means they could have had both more yards and points. The LSU game could have been worse than a 9 point deficiet. The loss two years ago was in my beloved Nick Saban's first year. A year which current upper classman admit that the players did not buy into his system much that year. They do now. Don't worry about what Bama's offense can or can't do. Just think about that defense. Running against Mt. Cody and company is not easily done. Home field advantage? Starkville is a 90 minute drive from Tuscaloosa. Not a big deal at all. In Bama you have a team that might have won the West but the only people who care about that are the fans. The players have said while that is nice, they have their eyes on a bigger prize and that is what they are working towards. I think the smart money is on the Tide.

Now I am getting off my soap box and going to bed.