horsie saturday 11/12/05 fox/pic picks
Ok fox when you got em post your woodbine picks. Of course ugg I have northfields done and am printing out woodbines as we speak.
Northfieldpark:
Race #1
#6 Agressive Ledew(9/2): I liked him last week and he came in 2nd. Parked the entire 1st Q at 27:2. No sooner did he settle in but the #1 came 1st over and he battled the rest of the way. No breathers although the 2nd quarter was in 30. Beat out by the heavy fave who was just about dropping half his class.
Race #2
#6 Tiglon(7/2): Disgraceful drive by Merriman who is usually pretty good. Left in a lacksadasical manner and by the quarter was parked out 4th. Refused to take the hole and settled in for an entire parked out miled. He just hand rode until the final short stretch and came in an impressive 2nd. The #1 in this race parked him the entire last race and lost to Tiglon and the #1 is still favored in this race. Any half decent trip and this horse wins for fun. I like him with the #2 my golden anne who has a decent shot but a piss poor driver.
Race #3
#4 Pacificam(5/2): This race has to be a joke. You are putting an invitational horse in with 15k claimers. lol lol. The only negative I see is Schillaci driving because he absolutely blows but even a monkey could drive this horse to the winner's circle. Because you will be lucky to get 3/5 I am putting him over the #1 YTwok-bug in a perfecta. This horse had to come from the 8 post last start and closed just as well as the 3 and 5. The #5 went first over last race but found an immediate hole so that hardly couts. Any decent leave and he sits in the 2hole behind the #4.
Race #4
#3 Magical Wiz(9/2): ok ok I would play him harder if Ross was not on him. Shuffled back to 7th last trip and came out 3rd over. The 1st over horse chose to die at the 3/4 and when he did so MW got blindswitched and forced back to last. He took the rail and found room to swing under and 3 wide on the final short stretch to close respectably. His 2 previous races saw him parked first over. Not sure if the trips will take their toll but any decent trip sees him in the winner circle. I just may not get that from Ross. One thing to watch. Boring has driven the 6(12-1) and 9(8-1) but is on the 6 this race. Grismore takes the 9. I am not sure if boring chose the 6 or he was forced off the 9 as grismore is 10 times the driver boring is.
Race #5
#6 Electric's A Flyin(10/1): The most difficult to pick out of the the first 5 races. This horse was the 8/5 fave last week and got beaten by the #5 by 7 lengths last race so why choose him? The #5 was 4th over last week with the 1st and 2nd over horses parked the mile. He went threewide just after the half but somehow got a break and was able to split inbetween horses to pull away from a tired field. The 6 was not so lucky and was trapped on the rail past the half. When he finally did get out it was into the dead flow and he was forced back on the rail. He went 5 and 6 wide etcaround the final turn and closed in the stretch. The problem? Two back he was creamed by the #4 who is dropping down from the invitational class and the #3 is also dropping and coming off a 31 1/2 length qualifier win. The #3 did break the previous 3 races however. I will maybe throw a half unit on the #6 with the knowledge I may get high odds with a realistic chance.
Race #6
#2 Whosethemaster(5/2): No price here. Has been racing for much bigger money on different tracks. In the start over october he was racing in the same class at northfield and winning by 4+ races without trying. The #3 is the 3rd choice and I do not like him. Merriman opted off and he is a claimer going into non winners. The #9 has gone from open to nonwinners and should come in 2nd(Merrimans choice). Oddly enough I like the #8 patriot act at 15/1 ML to get in the tri. Bet down last race against these and got 4th by 2 after 1 horrible trip.
Race #7
#7 Tivo(12/1): I ask myself why I am taking this horse who will undoubtedly come from near last again. The answer- GRISMORE. Boring got off this horse to jump on the 6 but I am still not conviced. He was 4th over last week to a 58:4 half. He went 3wide in a sweeping move up the backstretch and was of course forced wide around the turn. The #5 won that race for his 4th in a row but Tivo clearly outclosed him to come in 3rd. I will also be keeping my eye on the #1 punchcredible as to why Jones chose him over the #2. Punch got a decent trip but did not seem to have much. The line is wrong on pocket vance(#2) as it has him parked the mile. He was actually 3rd over and had nothing. One other to watch is the #9 tigerlee. Two bad trips with 2 bad drivers and now he moved to Holliday. IF the #1 does not leave he will be sitting in 3rd or 4th however which is game over. Not a huge play on Tivo but something I can see coming in at 8/1 or higher.
Race #8
#2 Lonesome Fella(7/2): This is a crap race. The #1 looks tons the best coming off 4 horrible parked out trips. Mark puts his family on the bike for what looks like a sure wire to wire win but wait. Elliot is an awful driver and can realistically screw up even a rail ride. The 2nd choice is coming from the 8 hole so toss him out. Schillachi has the 9 hole and if he sweeps under my #2 he will destroy all his chances to win but Schillachi is a tool and a very non aggressive driver.. Nobody else seems to wanna leave which may give me the 2hole trip and the possibility of another 1/2 length win(had him last week at 21/1).
Race #9
#7 Rick's On Belief(12/1): Merriman jumps off the 5 to the 6. Fisher jumps off the 6 to the 2. The 4 beats the 2 two starts back as a longshot and the 3 beats the 4 last race. What do we get here? A huge freakin mess is what. I am going with a longshot and grismore for a small play as this race is just pure crap. Grismore left with the 7 last race and settled in 5th. He immediately went 1st over and parked the entire mile until his horse dropped back 16 lengths as the very exhausted fave. I see 4 early bangers here including the 7 but you never know with a decent trip. IF they bang out the 3 or 4 sweeps the field.
Race #10
#4 Buster Seelster(3-1): I love this play and let me tell you why. This horse leaves from the 5 hole and is 4wide around the first turn. He is stuck 3wide behind a horse who eventually settles in the 3hole and rushes up to take the lead well past the 1st quarter. He easily seperates and hand rides him the entire race for an easy win. He was stratched sick in early october and came back at the end of october to qualify 2nd to MD Jewel who is an open horse at northfield. The #1 magic dart is the fave but his last race he sat 3rd the entire trip and whipped his horse the entire trip and never closed. I will probably put multiple units on this horse in the hopes he makes the lead again.
Race #11
#4 Chris Crombie(7/2): Yes equalize has been sensational. However, he is moving uo 10k in class and will be duking it out with the 5. Any 2nd over trip or better and the #4 sweeps. I am also considering the 7 town gazelle in the pic 3s and tris.
Race #12
#1 Rob Roy Mattgregor(5/2): If this horse does not win by 5+ I will eat my shorts. The driver sucks but cmon this horse was racing against 10 times tougher horses at the meadowlands. The 1 in a romp.
Race #13
#9 Thunder Bird(12/1): I sat looking at this racing thinking wtf. Merriman gets off the 3/1 #6 hes inebriated who he chose over the 9 last race as the fave. The 6 beat the 9 by around 7 lengths with a horrible trip. However, Mapes drove last time and he sucks and still closed 5 in the stretch.
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