[Mudcat]

What are your thoughts/philosophies on the current state of affairs? What are you doing now? What, if anything, have you changed and what are your plans for the future?



Me? Despite the fact there are no legal issues here in Canada, I have bitten the bullet and pulled everything right out of off-shore. I had to pay a hell of a lot in fees to do it but I just decided to go ultra-conservative right now. I am not comfortable with my life savings in a bunch of off-shore businesses being destabilized by the loss of 50+% of their clients. I see these companies laying off staff and having stocks plummet - Neteller is acting strange - none of it feels good to me. I don't know what is going to happen with anyone.

When I say I pulled everything out, I mean everything. I'm on complete hiatus.

As for the future: I'm going to keep monitoring the industry, keeping an eye on the forums. At some point, I'm going to become satisfied that things have settled into a new routine and I'll get back to work. I expect that to take from 1 - 6 months.

I saw someone saying they thought the worst was over and it's already safe to get back in. I don't feel that way at all.

I think the one change I will make when I get back to work is to not put all of my credit off-shore. I have always had all my lines-of-credit maxed out so if the unthinkable ever happened and I lost EVERYTHING off-shore, not only would I lose my life savings, I would be in big-time debt. Even though it is best to have as many dollars at work as possible, I don't want to put myself in that position again.

Other than that, I could see the focus shifting in the future. I think bonus scalping and arbing will become more difficult, so straight betting will probably become an increasingly important element of the business. I'll probably ramp up my research efforts on that and become less conservative in my unit size.

In the meantime I plan to have fun with this new free time. A break will be good. I've got a nice to-do list. It's really kind of exciting.

[tribet]

It's business as usual for me,arbitrage profits have not changed at all as fortunately I don't need to use shit offshore books to make a living.I don't keep a big balance with Neteller but apart from that it's all good.
Americans generally cannot see anything outside of their own backdoor,there is a whole world outside of the US and we are not affected by decisions involving the US government thank god.

[BAUS]

Very interesting post Mudcat. I've been interested to know what others have been doing lately.

Like yourself, I've been pulling out a lot of funds lately. However, I have been making a few deposits here and there at places I deem pretty safe like Bet365 and Canbet every Thursday.

I like what you said about life savings sitting in offshore books........that rings quite true to me right now and it's not always a great feeling.

I think there will always be bonus scalping/arbing, and it will become more difficult as time goes on, mostly because of limits being slashed before you ever have a chance to meet rollover.

There really are a lot of nice things a person could be doing in life besides watching a screen move every day. I agree that some time off isn't really a bad thing at all.

Sharp post Mudcat.

BAUS

[Santo]

Betfair.

[vanman]

So do you guys arb or just straight forward betting

[kiwi]

I arb. Others will give you a different answer...

[vanman]

where are you based kiwi

[kiwi]

Germany.

[vanman]

Do you make a full time living of arbing,is that possible,there are so many stories of books limiting you straight away.I just do it for a bit of fun to make a couple of extra pounds.How long have you been arbing.If you don`t want to answer on here you can send me a PM

[kiwi]

Do you make a full time living of arbing,is that possible,there are so many stories of books limiting you straight away.I just do it for a bit of fun to make a couple of extra pounds.How long have you been arbing.If you don`t want to answer on here you can send me a PM

Since more than 3 years I am only living from arbing.
Concerning the limits I try to use these books who don't limit (Pinnacle, TheGreek, BetCris, asian books and betting exchanges like Betfair, Betdaq and Mansion...). Some of my friends solve the problems with the limitting european books by creating many accounts with them but I only do that with a few key books which are really important for me because of their bad linesmakers.

[vanman]

thank you for your help kiwi,concerning multiple accounts do you close one before opening another or do you leave them all open.Are there any particular books that this works with.

[kiwi]

Sorry, but this is getting too detailed and time consuming now.
For multiple accounts ask your friends for help...
Also you can find information about different problems of arbing in arbforum.co.uk
Good luck!

[Mudcat]

So do you guys arb or just straight forward betting

I arb, straight bet, scalp bonuses, play middles. I even break some of those into multiple sub-categories (like I mainly straight bet based on my statistical research but I have another category for straight betting on event-based judgement. That is a very different thing. I don't do it now but theoretically there could be another straight betting category for coat-tailing. Again that's a totally distinct process from the first two.)

Walter Payton is my role model. I try to develop all the tools.

As kiwi said though, different people will have different methods. I know people who only arb or only scalp bonuses.

concerning multiple accounts do you close one before opening another or do you leave them all open.

I'm not positive I understand the question. I have accounts at quite a few different books and I just leave them all open. They may go down to zero balance but I can't think of any reason to actually close them. Some books will put you in a deep freeze after a period of inactivity. That's fine but it's not something I ask them to do.

Are there any particular books that this works with.

Different books work for different things. Pinnacle is the best for everything. Books with opinionated lines are the best for arbing - the higher the limits the better. Books with big bonuses and friendly rollover terms are the best for scalping (of course payout reliability has to be factored into that).

[nikosgr]

Interesting this.

[vanman]

What i meant was if you get limited by a bookie to the point of the account is not worth it,you can only say get £10 on a 1/3 shot,do you leave that account open and then open another and see how long you can bet before they catch on ,or do you close the limited account first before opening another.

[Yoshi]

Some of you guys want to be professional scalpers?
Stuff like multiple accounts coz you get limited at shit books, bragging on forums and stuff?

Next thing you do is go to a talk show, like the danes did with casino whoring?
Please, do us REAL pros a favor and STFU. Thank you.

[Santo]

Very pertinent example, Yoshi.

[vanman]

so who you having a go at yoshi,i thought this forum was to share views and help each other,as for bragging not my style.As you will find if you look at my other posts i thank people for their help and if i can help in return i will.

[Santo]

His point is that those who know the useful stuff, will not share the details of it, and nor should they.

[Yoshi]

His point is that those who know the useful stuff, will not share the details of it, and nor should they.

Yeah but this is only a small part of what pisses me off.
Share usefull stuff via PM etc. nothing wrong with that, and everyone can decide how much he wants to share.

But dont do it on forums, not only players read SBR...
and specially dont talk about FRAUD like multiple accounts, this makes every real scalper who watches lines and actually spends time for his money look bad.

I really cant believe someone admits that he uses multiple accounts here, or guys that need a bailout everytime a shit book folds coz they dont want to work, no they only want big bonuses and high limits so the rollover is done in a few bets.

Those guys are no pros, they are responsible for the bad name scalpers and middlers have, and when the shit hits the fan they start crying to the watchdogs.
They should just all STFU.

[Mudcat]

What i meant was if you get limited by a bookie to the point of the account is not worth it,you can only say get £10 on a 1/3 shot,do you leave that account open and then open another and see how long you can bet before they catch on ,or do you close the limited account first before opening another.

Oh. I have never done that so I wouldn't know.

[vanman]

Actually yoshi i work for a living and do arbs on a weekend or a night,i don`t do fraud as that carries a hefty jail sentence,if you read properly i was on about closing an account and then re opening.You can send me a PM anytime as can anybody if they want to discuss in private.

[datek23]

Nothing really changed here except no betting on Pinnacle. Payments are being accepted, guess that is what matters.

[kiwi]

Those guys are no pros, they are responsible for the bad name scalpers and middlers have...

Why do you think you have created the definition what a 'pro' is. In my opinion a professional is a person who is living from betting, period.
The reason why books don't like arbers is simply because they are winning, nothing else. They also will close or limit accounts of straight bettors in case they are winning too much.

[magnavox]

Why do you think you have created the definition what a 'pro' is. In my opinion a professional is a person who is living from betting, period.

Living? For how long? Days or years? That's the difference between those type of pros discussed here.

[kiwi]

Living? For how long? Days or years? That's the difference between those type of pros discussed here.

No, as far as I understand Yoshi he makes a difference between pros who are winning their money in a 'honest way' anyhow and these ones who are the 'bad guys' and damage the reputation of arbers and middlers.

[Yoshi]

The reason why books don't like arbers is simply because they are winning, nothing else. They also will close or limit accounts of straight bettors in case they are winning too much.

Many arbers always bet the max amount, jump on lines that are *close* to bad lines, etc.
No surprise that they have to be frauds in the long run, but if you think thats professional - your choice.
Scalping was sooo easy the past years, there is absolutely no need for shady stuff for a Pro. Think about it.

[kiwi]

Many arbers always bet the max amount, jump on lines that are *close* to bad lines, etc.
No surprise that they have to be frauds in the long run, but if you think thats professional - your choice.
Scalping was sooo easy the past years, there is absolutely no need for shady stuff for a Pro. Think about it.

I agree you have some points here. These are things annoying for the books too.
But I still think the main problem for the books (and therefore for the arbers too) is that the numbers of arbers (and also the number of bettors doing middling, bonus hunting and value betting) is increasing rapidly. At the same time I guess one cannot stop this trend anyway as people are learning fast and see they just lose money by 'normal' betting. As long as there were only a small number of arbers some books even used them to balance their book. But now many books are getting real problems because too many people win on the long run (of course only some experienced or very fast learning arbers do enough profit to live from it).
I think the future will be the exchanges and some sharp and big books. But I also have no bad conscious if I try to exploit the weaknesses of the european books as long as possible. Don't forget the only reason why they exist is to get 'my' money and live from it - why shouldn't I do the same with their money? :-)
By the way in case I have the feeling to be treated in a fair way from a book I will behave the same way too, books I can mention here are for example Pinnacle, TheGreek, Centrebet... on the other site there are books who try some tricks at every possible occassion like Bwin, Bet365, 10Bet... I don't respect them as I respekt the 'good' books...).

[noyb]

" is that the numbers of arbers (and also the number of bettors doing middling, bonus hunting and value betting) is increasing rapidly. "

continuing to post in this kinds of threads in an open betting forum will definitely not slow down this growth, i would like to say to the contrary...

[kiwi]

... you know, we had the same discussion in 'arbforum'. I think that anyway one cannot prevent more and more people to start arbing. So it depends on your skills and your ability to find hidden/complex arbs to stay successful. At least it is not easy for a newbie to start, because the normal arbs pass very fast.

[noyb]

i agree with you totally. on the other hand, altough one might not be able to prevent it, it is also not necessary to encourage it. we both know there are places where this kind of topics are discussed, this, being a normal betting forum is normally not one of them. people who really want to go to these places will find them, i don't see why it's necessary to give everybody remotely interested a roadsign, when there's nothing in it for you. anyway, i'll stop posting here now since i'm myself in violation of what i said in my last post

[tribet]

Many arbers always bet the max amount, jump on lines that are *close* to bad lines, etc.
No surprise that they have to be frauds in the long run, but if you think thats professional - your choice.
Scalping was sooo easy the past years, there is absolutely no need for shady stuff for a Pro. Think about it.

Oh yes it's the maximum bet all the time for me
I have come to the conclusion only Europeans are intelligent enough to understand arbing,people from the US haven't a clue.