10-31-09, 04:32 PM
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#1
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College Football Is Impossible To Predict
No way
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
7/20/2005
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10-31-09, 04:35 PM
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#2
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My Cougar Wears Two Pearl Necklaces
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You can't predict any sport JJ. You are horrible in every sport that a spread is offered. You are always on the wrong side of the fix.
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1000pts
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5000pts
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WINNER 2/11/2011
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10-31-09, 04:58 PM
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#3
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JJGOLD stop doubting yourself
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10-31-09, 05:00 PM
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#4
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JJ , take the rest of the weekend off
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
10/30/2005
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10-31-09, 05:03 PM
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#5
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80% luck..always has been
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10-31-09, 06:22 PM
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#6
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Go heavy in NFL. Tail Riggs. Get your dough back and put a bundle on Monday Night. You're a gambler, a true risk-taker. The ball is going to bounce your way if you stay in it.
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2011pts
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
02/02/2012
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10-31-09, 06:29 PM
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#7
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JJ, quit bitching. Study the night games, I need a winner, I owe money come Monday.
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10-31-09, 06:37 PM
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#8
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I think a lot of guys getting killed today. I'm hanging on by the skin of my teeth but it could go real bad if I don't get some breaks soon.
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175 pts
3-QUESTION
SBR TRIVIA WINNER 01/30/2012
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10-31-09, 06:39 PM
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#9
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Play the dogs tomorrow, the books will get their money back from last weekend.
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10-31-09, 06:44 PM
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#10
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Dude...are you just figuring this out??
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10-31-09, 07:18 PM
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#11
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yeah, alot of wild stuff, and i'm getting absolutely killed........... have to grab on to some night-time games.
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10-31-09, 07:51 PM
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#12
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I tailed Josh Hamilton in all his CFB games today and ended up going 4-0. I would suggest tailing him next week
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10-31-09, 08:24 PM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pavyracer
You can't predict any sport JJ. You are horrible in every sport that a spread is offered. You are always on the wrong side of the fix.
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If I gave points...I would give you some.. Could someone give Pavy points for this post...and me some for suggesting it.. 
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10-31-09, 08:26 PM
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#14
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Pick your spots and stop betting 10 games a day... I went 1-0...done for day...only urge now is the pizza that should be here in 5 minutes...
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10-31-09, 11:00 PM
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#15
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'Where will Timmy T be in 5 years?
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JJ today was a great day. What are you talking about. Outside of also liking the one justin7 pick that lost 45 to 0 (I had +44.5) had 2 losers. Rest were winners.
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10-31-09, 11:08 PM
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#16
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It's actually not been that hard this year. Chalk has been covering, the top 10 teams have, for the most part, been the same all year.
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600pts
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135pts
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200pts
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CHARITY DONOR
11/30/2011
$25 donation
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10-31-09, 11:08 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G's pks
Pick your spots and stop betting 10 games a day... I went 1-0...done for day...only urge now is the pizza that should be here in 5 minutes...
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Good stuff... I wish I'd taken your advice. I bet a shitload of games today and got my ass kicked. Huge beat down today and yesterday in NBA. Time for me to slow my ass down, regroup and grind 1 or 2 games a day. Last week I couldn't lose, this week, I can't buy a win. That's the way this shit goes... 
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175 pts
3-QUESTION
SBR TRIVIA WINNER 02/07/2012
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10-31-09, 11:23 PM
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#18
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I got killed in NBA yesterday then CAL shat on my BR today.
Some weeks you're down, others you're ahead. The race is long.
Thank God theres more sh_it to bet on tomorrow  |
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10-31-09, 11:25 PM
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#19
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its a rollercoaster.
if you dont have an MDA in mathmatics you'll never come out ahead.
all I got is a BS in economics
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10-31-09, 11:29 PM
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#20
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My Cougar Wears Two Pearl Necklaces
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Sometimes you have to improvise to win. Today I hit several 2H plays were the total seemed low compared to the total for game. Boston College, Virginia and Michigan. When the total in the 1H is extremely low hammer the over 2H because it would be close to the game total. Or when a game fav is losing at halftime big always play them to cover the 2H.
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1000pts
SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP 20th Place 2/19/2011
SBR Shirt
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5000pts
SBR POKER
ROYAL FLUSH
WINNER 2/11/2011
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10-31-09, 11:56 PM
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#21
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The main problem is that you cannot predict turnovers which changes so many games.
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
7/20/2005
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11-01-09, 12:20 AM
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#22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjgold
The main problem is that you cannot predict turnovers which changes so many games.
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or shitty coaching decisions. I got killed on the thurs to friday plays didnt hit anything, 7.4 units downs, today i got +1.05 units, should had stop it by 3:30 pm to, hoping to be on the right track tomorrow, but no more bets for me from mon to friday
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11-01-09, 12:25 AM
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#23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjgold
No way
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Its all in the lines. 
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11-01-09, 11:24 AM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pavyracer
You can't predict any sport JJ. You are horrible in every sport that a spread is offered. You are always on the wrong side of the fix.
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FinalMississippi
Auburn20
33[BookMaker] Mississippi -4.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalSouthern Mississippi
Houston43
50[BookMaker]Houston -6.5 (-110)Win3.303.00FinalUCLA
Oregon State19
26[BookMaker]Oregon State -9.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalWashington State
Notre Dame14
40[BookMaker]Notre Dame -27 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final Mississippi State
Kentucky 31
24 [BookMaker]Kentucky -3.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalKansas State
Oklahoma30
42[BookMaker]Oklahoma -27.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalLouisiana Tech
Idaho34
35[BookMaker]Idaho -3 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalHawaii
Nevada21
31[BookMaker]Nevada -28.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalGeorgia
Florida17
41[BookMaker]Under 49 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final California
Arizona State 23
21 [BookMaker]California -6.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10
Just follow Pavy 
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12,665
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$75 9500pts
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11-01-09, 11:33 AM
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#25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokernut9999
FinalMississippi
Auburn20
33[BookMaker]Mississippi -4.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalSouthern Mississippi
Houston43
50[BookMaker]Houston -6.5 (-110)Win3.303.00FinalUCLA
Oregon State19
26[BookMaker]Oregon State -9.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalWashington State
Notre Dame14
40[BookMaker]Notre Dame -27 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final Mississippi State
Kentucky 31
24 [BookMaker]Kentucky -3.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalKansas State
Oklahoma30
42[BookMaker]Oklahoma -27.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalLouisiana Tech
Idaho34
35[BookMaker]Idaho -3 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalHawaii
Nevada21
31[BookMaker]Nevada -28.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalGeorgia
Florida17
41[BookMaker]Under 49 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final California
Arizona State 23
21 [BookMaker]California -6.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10
Just follow Pavy |
lol
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11-01-09, 11:34 AM
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#26
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He got lucky on Houston
He should have gone 0-10  |
12,665
SBR POKER TOP 100 19th Place 11/1/2011
$75 9500pts
SBR POKER CHAMPIONSHIP 4th Place 2/19/2011
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11-01-09, 01:36 PM
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#27
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Good responses boys, enjoyed reading them all
I start threads like this for a reason to pick your brains and maybe become a better capper.
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
7/20/2005
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11-01-09, 01:38 PM
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#28
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11-01-09, 03:00 PM
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#29
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all I do is pay a longsnapper dime to sail the football over the fuukin forehead of the punter in the 4th quarter to avoid the backdoor
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SBR Founder
Join Date:
10/9/2005
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11-01-09, 03:26 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokernut9999
FinalMississippi
Auburn20
33[BookMaker]Mississippi -4.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalSouthern Mississippi
Houston43
50[BookMaker]Houston -6.5 (-110)Win3.303.00FinalUCLA
Oregon State19
26[BookMaker]Oregon State -9.5 (-110)Loss3.30 -3.30FinalWashington State
Notre Dame14
40[BookMaker]Notre Dame -27 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final Mississippi State
Kentucky 31
24 [BookMaker]Kentucky -3.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalKansas State
Oklahoma30
42[BookMaker]Oklahoma -27.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalLouisiana Tech
Idaho34
35[BookMaker]Idaho -3 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalHawaii
Nevada21
31[BookMaker]Nevada -28.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10FinalGeorgia
Florida17
41[BookMaker]Under 49 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10Final California
Arizona State 23
21 [BookMaker]California -6.5 (-110)Loss1.10 -1.10
Just follow Pavy |
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11-01-09, 03:46 PM
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#31
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my record was much, if any, better than that posted ticket.
basically my account balance didn't move after a certain point except KSU/OKLA and WSU/ND and then a bunch of losses after that.
anyway, as per the OP's title, i've often wondered if moneylines are good value in the NCAAF. i've wondered if they are properly priced relative to NCAAF's much higher variance than NFL.... obviously this was a big week for strange results, but i wonder if i could study line variance thru the year. i'm thinking teams doing well start to feel the pressure and terrible teams have finally made enough adjustments by this time of year.
anyone else had these thoughts? the second idea is probably better, but harder to quantify... hard to believe moneylines wouldn't be properly priced, but it's something i've always sensed.
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11-01-09, 03:59 PM
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#32
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college foots is the most difficult for me. continually working to improve it.
college basketball is the holy grail, however.
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11-01-09, 04:27 PM
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#33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StraitShooter
80% luck..always has been
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I wouldn't say 80% luck. Maybe 33%, something like that.
It comes down to which, uh, "kid" fumbles, how many times, etc.
And other turnovers, IT's, deflected passes, bad timed major penalties.
I would guess if you have the right side, outgain the other team dramatically, but you lose the turnover battle by 2 or more, you lose 1/3 of the bets anway. Something like that, IMO.
You can review turnover stats, etc, but not a productive way to bet until late in the season when you can somewhat determine that some teams are disciplined in that area and some are not. Bad teams are under pressure so turn the ball over more than good teams in control.
When a dog plays well, to its capabilites and does not turn the ball over, it covers at lot, say 66% of the time. When the dog playts well, does turn the ball over it loses, say 66% of the time.
Just round figures, no science, IMO that what it comes down to. But not 80% luck, much less than that. 
Last edited by Serbone; 11-01-09 at 08:22 PM.
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11-01-09, 04:34 PM
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#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G's pks
Pick your spots and stop betting 10 games a day... I went 1-0...done for day...only urge now is the pizza that should be here in 5 minutes...
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Even though you pay a lot of juice, if you know what you are doing you are better off betting more games, but lesser amounts of $$$.
A few games will be lost because of bad luck, TO's, bad ref calls, penalties, deflected passes, etc, and if you bet 1 game, you might lose it becasue of that. But if you pick 10 games based upon good solid handicapping and knowledge, you will lose 1-2-3 games with bad luck, win 1-2-3 with good luck, and win others that were handicapped well.
Spread the bets, lighter plays, until you have a bankroll, then increase.
Example, glad I did not bet one game, like Indiana + 17, what a disaster. I bet 13 games yesterday, won some $$$$, not a ton, but nice day. 
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11-01-09, 07:54 PM
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#35
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i dont like playing just one or two games. i trust the work that i have done. i have already found games that i like based on opening lines. rest of the week goes to doing the weekday games and watching for totals and line movement.
my goal is to be between 55 and 65 percent. I play about 10 games a week, and if you trust your stuff, 60% of 10 bets pays a lot more
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