[Crayzee]

does anyone else bet strictly by what the posted line is?
i have noticed that certain numbers almost always point to the favorite or the dog
for instaance
in football and basket- a -3, -6, or -10 almost surely points to the favorite
while a 2-1/2, 1, or (7 in football) points toward the dog

is this an illusion?

also i noticed alot of you prognosticators here seem to have your picks made well in advance and try to get them in say before the line moves against you
i prefer to wait till last minute line moves and use the move to help me decide

[degenerate#1]

I like to put my bets with an eye on where I think the line is going to move, sometimes it's best to wait, sometimes you really have to get in there early.

[Bill Dozer]

Originally Posted by Crayzee

does anyone else bet strictly by what the posted line is?
i have noticed that certain numbers almost always point to the favorite or the dog
for instaance
in football and basket- a -3, -6, or -10 almost surely points to the favorite
while a 2-1/2, 1, or (7 in football) points toward the dog

is this an illusion?

also i noticed alot of you prognosticators here seem to have your picks made well in advance and try to get them in say before the line moves against you
i prefer to wait till last minute line moves and use the move to help me decide

Hi Crayzee. Welcome to SBRforum.

A lot of players like to bet before gametime but will also watch the lines (see www.SBRlines.com) since there can be a lot of movement right before tip/kick off. Even if you have been out all day, watching the line close can save you a good 10%.

[degenerate#1]

Originally Posted by Bill Dozer

Hi Crayzee. Welcome to SBRforum.

A lot of players like to bet before gametime but will also watch the lines (see www.SBRlines.com) since there can be a lot of movement right before tip/kick off. Even if you have been out all day, watching the line close can save you a good 10%.

sbrlines is pretty hype.

[trustbutverify]

Line shifts are can mean a lot of extra units returned for every 1000 bets. But it's difficult to track for busy people. I make most wagers at the same time each day, hoping to get a good average line. I'm working on a mechanical system to lower that average. Betting chalk early and dogs late is not effective anymore.

[Crayzee]

sorry i meant to write "dudes"
thanks for your responses

[nep1293]

This is how I bet on football. The only difference is that I use the opening line before it gets any movement on it. Some of your "magic" numbers are wrong though, at least for this years games.

3 Pt dogs went 34-11 ATS in NFL games

7 Pt favorites were 9-3

NCAA games had some interesting #'s also

Underdogs getting less than 3 pts were 55-30 ATS (51-34 on the ML)

I have every game slotted by the spread, if you want any others let me know

I've been working on the NBA too but the results haven't been as reliable. They help some, but only for a few point spreads. Road favorites giving 5 - 8.5 are 44-18 ATS

[BuddyBear]

Good post TBV...the conventional wisdom about when to bet dogs and favorites is no longer as effective as it used to be. SBRlines is an amazing tool that should be taken advantage of.

To me, it's always about getting the best number. So I have to consider when that will be whether it as the beginning of the week, right when a number is released or right before tip off or kick off.