NCAAF Week 8: Peter Loshak and Justin7 Preview
Justin7 returns in person to join SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak in discussing Week 8 in college football, informed as always by his college football stat model.
The Oklahoma/Kansas game attracted a ton of early split action, causing the line to bounce back and forth, repeatedly moving on and off the key number of 7 in the early going. Loshak is thinking No. 24 Kansas might have value as a good-sized home dog, and is encouraged by Justin7’s agreement as well as reports of some sharp action on the Jayhawks.
No. 2 Florida was bounced from the top spot in the rankings this week, not due to a loss, but due to less-than-dominant performances on the field recently. Nevertheless, the Oddsmakers installed the Gators as a 3+ TD road favorite against Mississippi St., and the market pushed that line up even higher. The Bulldogs may not be an elite squad, but they have kept reasonably close to other ranked teams when at home, and Loshak and Justin7 discuss this huge line, agreeing that it is probably a bit too high.
Undefeated No. 7 Iowa rolls into Michigan St. looking to keep their surprising season going, and there has been a lot of debate concerning just how good the Hawkeyes really are. With a strong defense and a physical but not flashy offense, the betting market has been resistant to back them, and this week again the line has moved against them. Justin7’s model, however, rates Michigan St as a solid favorite in this intriguing handicapping situation.
No. 9 LSU is off of a bye week, regrouping after their first loss of the season to Florida. LSU has issues on offense that were particularly exposed by the Gators, and they were reportedly working on fixing some of those problems with their break. Auburn might be a good team to come back against, as the Tigers have struggled recently, most notably losing at home to Kentucky last week. But with the line at LSU -7.5, Loshak and Justin7 are split on which side might be the one with value.
Justin7 reveals one other side he likes this week, and Loshak reports on a side he has heard Billy Walters is on, as well as a side he has heard a sharp syndicate is on.
http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Arti...da-gators.aspx
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Originally Posted by gummo
