[Fishhead]

Following Iowa as closely and as intently as I do, this game is a complete toss-up in my opinion. Iowa CB Pratter is expected to play(sore ribs), but if he somehow cannot go in the majority of the plays, MICH is going to definetly take advantage of those backing him up and Iowa just doesn't have quality depth at this position(Pratter was actually 2nd string before Bernsteen went down in preseaon). Couple this with the fact that Iowa will play ultra-conservatively in this game and allow Michigan to hang around if they are indeed leading, will allow Michigan to be in the game late, as this Iowa coaching staff is notorious for this.

I absolutely love Michigan +8 or better in this spot and feel Michigan can definelty pull off the straight-up victory in Iowa City.

Will be very surprised if this game is not still in doubt with under 5 minutes to play.......thus taking 8 points is a no-brainer to this observer.







To give you more insight into this game, I really like and agree with the following write-up on this game from CFN................






Michigan (4-1) at Iowa (5-0), 8:00 EST, Saturday, October 10, ABC

Why to watch: For those not interested in watching the No. 1 team in the nation play at the No. 4 team in the country in a national title-caliber showdown, this is a truth-telling showdown that will go a long way to determining the final Big Ten pecking order. Michigan had its head over its skis for the first month of the season, and now it’s time to see if the team is for real. After playing with fire in close wins against Notre Dame and Indiana, Tate Forcier couldn’t pull out a win at Michigan State after forcing overtime with a touchdown pass in the final seconds of regulation. Meanwhile, Iowa keeps on rolling along playing an ugly brand of football with no offense, a spotty defense that gives up just enough scoring drives to keep games close, and mediocre special teams … and lots of wins. The Hawkeyes have won nine in a row, and if they want to take hold of the Big Ten title chase, they need to get hotter and better over the next three weeks with trips to Wisconsin and Michigan State to follow. The win over Penn State might have set the tone for the season, but now it’s time to show that it wasn’t a mirage.
Why Michigan might win: Zoltan Mesko. Iowa isn’t going to go on any long, sustained drives. The O produces on good field position, the occasional big play, and by taking advantage of every big mistake. Mesko, Michigan’s fantastic punter, leads the Big Ten and is fifth in the nation averaging 44 yards per kick. He’s fantastic at bailing the team out of jams, and he’s strong at pinning offenses deep. If Iowa has to continually go 70-to-80 yards to score, forget it. Michigan’s defense might not be a rock, but it’s good enough to make a one dimensional, mediocre offense bog down time and again around midfield.
Why Iowa might win: Forcier is good for at least one interception again, and Iowa is way too tight in the secondary to not let any big opportunities slip by. When fully focused, Iowa’s defense is terrific at not breaking, and it has been its best on the road when fired up to deal with Iowa State in the rivalry game, and on national TV in the win over Penn State. The ultra-active linebackers should keep Forcier and the Michigan ground game from breaking off anything big, while the secondary that’s currently ranked fourth in the nation in pass efficiency defense isn’t going to allow anything big. Michigan State shut down the Michigan running game last week, and if Iowa can have the same success from its front seven, it’s going to take a few major breaks for the Wolverines to produce.
Who to watch: America, welcome to Pat Angerer, Part 2. The Iowa senior linebacker was the star of the Penn State win with 14 tackles, interception, and a key forced fumble, and he’s likely to be the center of attention this week, too. Michigan State’s Greg Jones came up with eight tackles, two tackles for loss, and a sack last week in the win over the Wolverines as he made play after play to keep the Michigan backfield from breaking off anything big. Angerer should have similar success with everything being funneled his way.
What will happen: Forcier will produce a little bit of his magic here and there, but he won’t do enough and will turn the ball over at least twice. Iowa will win the turnover margin, will capitalize on all the mistakes, and will shut down the Wolverine ground game cold.



CFN Prediction: Iowa 17 … Michigan 13 ... Line: Iowa -8

[Fishhead]

I see the game being more high scoring than the CFN prediction though........


FISHHEAD'S FEARLESS FINAL SCORE PREDICTION


MICHIGAN 23
IOWA 26

[Deuce]

Fishead,


Do you have film on these two?


Deuce

[Fishhead]

In all modesty, with this being the very first time I've fully released this as my POD anywhere on the internet, one can anticipate this line moving down, for a variety of reasons.

If you indeed like Michigan, don't hesitate.

If you like the Iowa side, be patient at this time.


I hope the majority of posters are on the winning side here, be it IOWA or MICHIGAN................even if it means a substantial loss for me taking the visitor in this game at Kinnick Stadium.

GL,
FH

[ji03]

Good play. The iowa offense isn't the greatest and they seem to allow teams they have beaten back in the game to make it interesting, so I really like the play.

[MonkeyF0cker]

This line isn't going anywhere. Michigan +8 -110 is -EV.

[MSUSpartan32]

Really hard to play Iowa after their home games vs. Ark State and Northern Iowa.

However, Michigan IMO is the softest team in the Big 10. 28 carries for 28 yards last week against a Michigan State defense that hadn't stopped anybody all year long. Forcier has been injured in 3 of the teams games this season, and this will be the most physcial front 7 he will have faced. I'd be suprised if he makes it thru the game injury free and when he goes out, there goes the Michigan offense. Denard Robinson is a 1 trick pony and Michigan won't consistently move the ball with him in there.

Michigan also is giving up around 450 yards per game in Big 10 play.

Hard to bet on a soft team, with a bad defense, on the road, at night, playing an often injured true freshmen at QB.....

[Deuce]

Really hard to play Iowa after their home games vs. Ark State and Northern Iowa. However, Michigan IMO is the softest team in the Big 10. 28 carries for 28 yards last week against a Michigan State defense that hadn't stopped anybody all year long. Forcier has been injured in 3 of the teams games this season, and this will be the most physcial front 7 he will have faced. I'd be suprised if he makes it thru the game injury free and when he goes out, there goes the Michigan offense. Denard Robinson is a 1 trick pony and Michigan won't consistently move the ball with him in there. Michigan also is giving up around 450 yards per game in Big 10 play. Hard to bet on a soft team, with a bad defense, on the road, at night, playing an often injured true freshmen at QB.....

Soft? It was MSU's snooperbowl, the defense played out of their minds. Mich went into that game with the best rushing in the Big 10. Often injured? One shoulder injury, strained at that. Denard 1 trick? He can throw the ball too.

Just because you're an MSU slappy doesn't mean you lie to make a team look worse than they are. Let's stick to the sharps calling the shots here.

[Fishhead]

Soft? It was MSU's snooperbowl, the defense played out of their minds. Mich went into that game with the best rushing in the Big 10. Often injured? One shoulder injury, strained at that. Denard 1 trick? He can throw the ball too.

Just because you're an MSU slappy doesn't mean you lie to make a team look worse than they are. Let's stick to the sharps calling the shots here.

[rm18]

Might take Iowa -6.5 buying points

[Fishhead]

This line isn't going anywhere. Michigan +8 -110 is -EV.

Just dropped to +7.5 at both BOOKMAKER and DIAMOND...............

[MSUSpartan32]

Listen up, cheech. Why don't you back some of your insults up with some facts.

1. 28 yards on 28 carries. I don't care what they rushed for against EMU, Indiana, or Western Michigan. When playing a team as good as Iowa is defensively, those stats are meaningless. In their first road game, against a team that is decent vs. the run, they couldn't run the ball. Not opinion, just fact.

2. Michigan is 9th in the Big 10 in passing yards per game at under 200 yards per game. So, they will have trouble running it, but they are going to throw it now?????????

3. Denard Robinson is 4/11 for 57 yards, at 37%, with 2 picks with a QB rating of 43, which is almost off the charts bad. Yeah, you are right he can really throw it. Maybe if he plays a whole game he can throw 5 picks? Those are great stats. Wow, are you lost.

4. Tate had to leave the Indiana game, the EMU game, and the MSU game for 1 series or more because he was injured. Drew Stanton and Juice Williams, 2 QB's that ran the ball in the Big 10 that dwarf Tate both had their fair share of injuries. If you think he is not going to get hurt, playing that style, at his diminutive size, you are nuts.

* It was a game MSU planned on winning, just as they did last year. No surprise and certainly no super bowl to beat a team that had just won 3 games last year. Please throw something at me that is based on some facts and analysis and not 8th grade insults.

Soft? It was MSU's snooperbowl, the defense played out of their minds. Mich went into that game with the best rushing in the Big 10. Often injured? One shoulder injury, strained at that. Denard 1 trick? He can throw the ball too.

Just because you're an MSU slappy doesn't mean you lie to make a team look worse than they are. Let's stick to the sharps calling the shots here.

[jjgold]

Fishhead and MSU great analysis

The play is Mich

[MSUSpartan32]

Thanks, jj. No play for me, but BOL to all on the game.

[HoulihansTX]

Opened at 8.5. No loss of value though. Anything between 7.5 - 9.5 on a favorite is all the same, since lines rarely land on those numbers.

[Deuce]

Listen up, cheech. Why don't you back some of your insults up with some facts. 1. 28 yards on 28 carries. I don't care what they rushed for against EMU, Indiana, or Western Michigan. When playing a team as good as Iowa is defensively, those stats are meaningless. In their first road game, against a team that is decent vs. the run, they couldn't run the ball. Not opinion, just fact. 2. Michigan is 9th in the Big 10 in passing yards per game at under 200 yards per game. So, they will have trouble running it, but they are going to throw it now????????? 3. Denard Robinson is 4/11 for 57 yards, at 37%, with 2 picks with a QB rating of 43, which is almost off the charts bad. Yeah, you are right he can really throw it. Maybe if he plays a whole game he can throw 5 picks? Those are great stats. Wow, are you lost. 4. Tate had to leave the Indiana game, the EMU game, and the MSU game for 1 series or more because he was injured. Drew Stanton and Juice Williams, 2 QB's that ran the ball in the Big 10 that dwarf Tate both had their fair share of injuries. If you think he is not going to get hurt, playing that style, at his diminutive size, you are nuts. * It was a game MSU planned on winning, just as they did last year. No surprise and certainly no super bowl to beat a team that had just won 3 games last year. Please throw something at me that is based on some facts and analysis and not 8th grade insults.

We can both agree there that Iowa is better than MSU correct?

We can also agree that we really have no clue how good Mich is correct?

You are basing your opinion off of one game and that can bury any gambler. The fact is that the only person in the MSU front seven that could even start for Iowa would be Greg Jones.

MSU play every single year for one game. That is it, they couldn't care a less about any other game besides Mich. Mich on the other hand deals with their rival Oh St. and tries to get to a solid bowl, as of late neither has happened, besides in 07 when they clowned on Tebow.

[twincities77]

I've got Iowa -7.5 (+110) and I'm feeling pretty good about it. Michigan is coming off first loss, on the road with a rookie again, against the toughest pass defense (maybe by far) he's faced this year. Michigan's defense is also putrid. Regarding Arkansas State and Northern Iowa, it really seems like this team just played down to them; when they've played the big boys, they've shown how good they are. It looks like Iowa and Ohio State are the two front runners for the Big Ten title right now, and I'm not sure Ohio State is better than them.

[Fishhead]

As my initial post stated, Michigan will exploit the right side deep if Pratter is not at least 84% healthy..........his replacements are average at best.

Look for Michigan to work the right sideline with passes, as well as going deep down the right side of the field AND in the process keep this game close.

FH

[pags11]

agree completely with your analysis fishhead...

[MSUSpartan32]

You said Denard Robinson can throw.....after that it was hard to listen.

The Iowa that barely beat Arkansas St and NIowa is not better than MSU. But if those 2 teams play on a neutral site, yes, I think Iowa is probably beter.

Yep, we don't know a ton about Michigan. I know they are 0-1 on the road.

I guess State must've cared about the other 8 games they won last year........Michigan "deals" with their rival by getting pummelled by the Sweater Vest year after year.

BOL either way.

We can both agree there that Iowa is better than MSU correct?

We can also agree that we really have no clue how good Mich is correct?

You are basing your opinion off of one game and that can bury any gambler. The fact is that the only person in the MSU front seven that could even start for Iowa would be Greg Jones.

MSU play every single year for one game. That is it, they couldn't care a less about any other game besides Mich. Mich on the other hand deals with their rival Oh St. and tries to get to a solid bowl, as of late neither has happened, besides in 07 when they clowned on Tebow.

[MSUSpartan32]

Fishhead, you really think the Michigan passing game is good enough to "expose" anyone? You think their offensive line has any chance to give Tate time against one of the better front 4's in the Big 10?

[Rio DiNero]

Fishhead, you really think the Michigan passing game is good enough to "expose" anyone? You think their offensive line has any chance to give Tate time against one of the better front 4's in the Big 10?

[Fishhead]

I love the way everyone believes IOWA played a poor game against ARK ST and UNI and a great game against PSU................

Completely false.............the close wins were not nearly as bad as you might believe and the PSU win was not as great as you may have been led to believe.

At the time they played these opponents, UNI and ARK ST both probably had better offenses than PSU..............AND WERE DEFINETLY 2X MORE PREPARED FOR THE HAWKS........ESPECIALLY NORTHERN IOWA.

[BigdaddyQH]

I make 95% or more of my plays in Vegas, so my information comes from Vegas books. I am a group that pools it's resources and makes large wagers. It gives us the advantage of being able to wager "lead" lines when they come out on Sunday.

The line in Vegas is currently Iowa -8 to 8.5 now. It's about 50/50. That would indicate that if anything, the line may go up a bit. I can't see why. Both Iowa and Michigan hae had their share of close games. Iowa has only covered one game by more than 8 points this season. All of Michigans BCS conference games have been close. I just can't see giving 8 points or more in this game. Pass.

[redore33]

Fishhead, you're making these statements strictly from watching whatever TV access you might have. Since you're NOT employed as a professional scout, I take it w/a grain of salt. We all hve opinions, no one is an expert, as far as I know. Playing Big Blue here as a POW is foolish, IMO. + 8 may be good, but Mich also may not 10, I'd rather play under the total.

[SlickRick24]

I'm going Iowa -8 in this game. I can't trust teams with bad defenses on the road.

[MSUSpartan32]

BOL on your play, Fishhead. You make very good arguements for your play. I just think Michigan is a fraud and I guess we will find out some answers on Saturday night.

quote=Fishhead;2357061]I love the way everyone believes IOWA played a poor game against ARK ST and UNI and a great game against PSU................

Completely false.............the close wins were not nearly as bad as you might believe and the PSU win was not as great as you may have been led to believe.

At the time they played these opponents, UNI and ARK ST both probably had better offenses than PSU..............AND WERE DEFINETLY 2X MORE PREPARED FOR THE HAWKS........ESPECIALLY NORTHERN IOWA.[/quote]

[Fishhead]

Light snow/rain expected during this game this evening.....fwiw.

[Rio DiNero]

Light snow/rain expected during this game this evening.....fwiw.

Thanks for the update fish, your guy playing corner or is he scratched?

[Fishhead]

Thanks for the update fish, your guy playing corner or is he scratched?

Going to play at 80% capacity............


Make no mistake about it, this is an OUTSTANDING IOWA DEFENSE..........WAY BETTER THEN THEIR DEFENSIVE YARDS ALLOWED MAY INDICATE.

[Fishhead]

By the way, this MICH/IOWA game is turning into a bookmakers dream..............

[gummo]

Fishhead will be watching this game standing up. GL

[angelodebo]

After that tough game against N.Illinois, Iowa has been very solid. They played a terrible game last week b/c they were looking ahead to this game.

Mich has played in some tight games but I think the loss last week at Mich St. is like a "gut shot". Michigan isn't going to recover from that loss quickly. 2nd road game in a row too..that is tough for a young team!

I like Iowa! They win this game by 20 pts!

[SBRtv]

Dr Bob weighed in on this game on SBR.tv: