SBR moderator Justin7 is graciously sharing with Peter Loshak and SBR his stat model’s recommended plays in college football, and he got off to a great start in Week 5 last week, going 3-0. Loshak and Justin discussed various upcoming Week 6 Top 25 games of interest.
Florida State is having a very unpredictable year, sometimes looking great as they did in their road win at BYU, but more often looking undisciplined as they have in various losses and sluggish recent performances. Justin7’s stat model reflects that, as it does indicate a preference for #22 Georgia Tech at +2.5, but with too much volatility involved to justify a bet. It does agree with Loshak’s lean to the over 54.5.
There are two home dogs that caught Loshak’s eye, with the lines possibly reflecting overreactions to the unexpected early-season success of the respective road faves involved. #24 Missouri is a 3-point home dog to #21 Nebraska. Nebraska has been winning and putting up good defensive numbers, but Justin points out that Nebraska’s success has come against a very weak slate of opponents. Unranked Arkansas is also a 3-point home dog to #17 Auburn, a surprising team that is generating a lot of buzz right now.
Air Force may have big trouble putting up points against #10 TCU’s elite defense, while #2 Texas, at home off of a bye week facing Colorado’s weak D, has a big offensive day looming, and team totals may be the way to go in those games.
#12 Iowa is looking solid, while Michigan is looking vulnerable, but Iowa doesn’t quite inspire blowout confidence, and as an 8-point favorite, a tease might be called for, even though teasers are generally less recommended in college than in the NFL. A similar situation might be present in the marquee game of the week, #1 Florida at #4 LSU.
Justin’s computer model spit out only one pick this week, which he reveals to Loshak at the end of their chat.