[ZetaPsi808]

Right now they are ML about -190.

i can also get -2.5 about -145
-3 - 130
-3.5 -105

the total is fairly high for an NFL game at 46 points. so i think which ever team wins, will do so by at least 4 points. this is not a grind it out steelers/ravens matchup here, boys lol

also the public will pound the colts as the titans are 0-4. so im trying to pound the colts early, expecting the line to move up to about -4 or -4.5. and then hedge with a TENN ML bet right before game time. i am to get TENN ML at about +250. this way i can guarantee a profit

in general, my strategy is to bet favorites early, and dogs close to gametime. its all about getting the best line/number/odds, etc. for me.

what do you guys think?

[ZetaPsi808]

yup more posts than points buddy!

NFL teams RARELY win by 1 or 2 points so i think getting 2.5 over the key number of 3 is best. im not really worried about IND winning by 1 or 2 here. plus it saves me about 50 cents in juice (190 to 145).

i always lay the points if i can get the favorite for less than 3 points. but if a dog is less than 3 points, i always take ML.

on a side note, i think a bet such as +2 -110 is the most - EV bet you can make in NFL.

[eidolon]

use tennessee with a 7 point teaser to give you a +10.5

[LT Profits]

Well, you won't guarantee a profit by betting Colts -2.5 (or - anything) and Tenn ML. Just because the chances of a one or two point win seem slim, it is not impossible.

All that aside. -3.5 -105 = -3 -131.4 = -2.5 -159.5 = -195.5 ML

Seems -2.5 -145 is your best value

[ZetaPsi808]

All that aside. -3.5 -105 = -3 -131.4 = -2.5 -159.5 = -195.5 ML

Seems -2.5 -145 is your best value

LT, what tool did you use to calculate that?

[billmunny]

All that aside. -3.5 -105 = -3 -131.4 = -2.5 -159.5 = -195.5 ML

Seems -2.5 -145 is your best value

LT, what tool did you use to calculate that?

This will work.

[alka07]

take ml

[lakerboy]

how about not playing this game. that will guarantee you a profit.